iShares Future AI & Tech ETF (ARTY)

iShares Future AI & Tech ETF Tail Risk

Tail-risk stats use daily return distributions rather than simple end-point returns. They show how ugly the left tail has been, how severe the worst 5% of days were, and whether returns were skewed toward outsized upside or downside shocks.

The histogram shows the shape of iShares Future AI & Tech ETF's daily log returns over the 5Y window. Bars left of the 5% VaR marker are the worst 5% of days; the ES marker is the average loss inside that tail. Skew and excess kurtosis describe whether the distribution is symmetric around zero and whether extreme days are more common than a Normal distribution predicts.

ARTY daily return distribution (5Y)

ARTY daily return distribution (5Y)

Log-return histogram with Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall markers at the 5% left tail.

Days Download PNG

ARTY 5Y

VaR

-3.00%

ES

-4.17%

Skew

-0.11

Excess kurtosis

3.36

Days

1255

±2σ days

37 / 25

worst-5% daily return and the average loss inside it

Formula $\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%} = Q_{0.05}(R),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%} = \mathbb{E}[R \mid R \le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]$

Less negative daily VaR and Expected Shortfall values mean the left tail was less violent. Skew and excess kurtosis help distinguish between steady compounding and a path dominated by occasional extreme moves.