AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Returns, Risk & Drawdowns

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick Answer

What is AST SpaceMobile's risk, return, and volatility like?

AST SpaceMobile returned +251.2% over the 1Y window. On the 5Y lens, Sharpe ratio is 0.85, annualized volatility is 110.4%, and max drawdown is -85.6%.

Total Return

1Y +251.2%

5Y +725.5%

Sharpe Ratio

1Y 1.72

5Y 0.85

Annualized Volatility

1Y 98.9%

5Y 110.4%

Max Drawdown

1Y -47.0%

5Y -85.6%

Trade ASTS

Access this asset on trusted platforms.

Hyperliquid

Trade perpetual futures exposure where supportedASTSTrade on Hyperliquid

Binance

Trade futures exposure on a global exchange where supportedASTSTrade on Binance

Affiliate disclosure

Price history

AST SpaceMobile price over the past 5Y

Track AST SpaceMobile's standalone price path with macro and asset-specific events enabled by default.

AST SpaceMobile price over the past 5Y

ASTS

Latest close $78.75 Data through 2026-04-23

5Y low $2.01 Window low

5Y high $122.09 Window high

Key takeaways

Total Return: ASTS returned +251.2% over the 1Y window and +725.5% over the 5Y window ; annualized return over 5Y was +52.6%.
Risk-adjusted return: Sharpe was 0.85 and Sortino was 1.53 over 5Y. Sharpe counts total volatility; Sortino focuses on downside volatility.
Volatility & drawdown: Annualized volatility was 98.9% over 1Y and 110.4% over 5Y ; max drawdown was -47.0% over 1Y and -85.6% over 5Y .
Tail risk (Expected Shortfall): Over 5Y, daily VaR (5%) was -9.3% and Expected Shortfall was -12.5%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move inside the worst 5% of daily returns.
Skew & kurtosis: Over 5Y, skew was 1.30 and excess kurtosis was 10.16. Skew shows return asymmetry; excess kurtosis shows how fat the tails were versus a Normal distribution.
Risk ratios: Sortino Ratio: 1.53 , Calmar Ratio: 0.62 , Sterling Ratio: 1.43 , Treynor Ratio: 0.46 , Ulcer Index: 46.67% .

AST SpaceMobile Drawdown

ASTS 1Y Max Drawdown

↓ -47.0%

2025-10-15 to 2025-11-20

ASTS 5Y Max Drawdown

↓ -85.6%

2022-08-16 to 2024-04-02

Max drawdown shows the deepest peak-to-trough decline AST SpaceMobile suffered in each research window. 1Y: -47.0%; 5Y: -85.6%.

AST SpaceMobile is currently -35.5% below its prior peak, with the high-water mark at $122.09. 5Y low is $2.01.

ASTS underwater plot (5Y). Zero means at a prior peak; dips show how far below peak the close was on each day. Deepest trough: -85.6% on Apr 2, 2024.

5Y drawdown episodes

-85.6% Aug 16, 2022 to Apr 2, 2024

Recovered Jul 25, 2024 709 total days

-62.1% Jul 6, 2021 to Jan 27, 2022

Recovered Aug 16, 2022 406 total days

-54.1% Aug 19, 2024 to Jan 29, 2025

Recovered Jun 16, 2025 301 total days

AST SpaceMobile Volatility

ASTS 1Y Volatility

98.9%

Annualized daily closes

ASTS 5Y Volatility

110.4%

Annualized daily closes

Volatility AST SpaceMobile's annualized volatility shows how widely daily closes moved over 1Y and 5Y. Higher values mean a noisier path, not automatically a better or worse investment. 1Y: 98.9%; 5Y: 110.4%.

Benchmark context

Where ASTS fits relative to other lenses

Benchmark links are secondary on this page. Use them when you want to place the asset against a specific market, factor, or historical counterpart.

Default benchmark

S&P 500

SPY

Broad equity benchmark

1Y return

↑ +30.7%

ASTS minus SPY

↑ +196.5%

Correlation

0.34

ASTS vs SPY average correlation

Moderately linked

0.34

QQQ

Nasdaq 100

Corr 0.35

Growth and tech benchmark

1Y return +39.9%

ASTS minus QQQ +187.3%

BTC

Bitcoin

Corr 0.28

Cross-asset crypto benchmark

1Y return -17.1%

ASTS minus BTC +244.3%

XAU

Gold

Corr 0.15

Store-of-value benchmark

1Y return +40.2%

ASTS minus XAU +187.0%

Risk-adjusted ratios

These ratios compare return against different definitions of risk: total volatility, downside volatility, drawdowns, benchmark beta, and time spent underwater.

AST SpaceMobile Sharpe Ratio

ASTS 1Y Sharpe ratio

↑ 1.72

Recent window

ASTS 5Y Sharpe ratio

↑ 0.85

Deeper research window

ASTS Sharpe Ratio (5Y)

Return per total volatility

The dot sits at (AST SpaceMobile's annualized volatility, its excess annualized return). The slope from the origin to the dot is the Sharpe ratio — steeper means the asset converted risk into return more efficiently.

Higher is better

excess annualized return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio AST SpaceMobile's Sharpe ratio measures excess return per unit of total volatility. Higher readings mean the asset converted risk into return more efficiently over the same window. 1Y: 1.72; 5Y: 0.85.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

AST SpaceMobile Sortino Ratio

ASTS 1Y Sortino ratio

↑ 2.76

Recent window

ASTS 5Y Sortino ratio

↑ 1.53

Deeper research window

ASTS Sortino Ratio (5Y)

Return per downside volatility

AST SpaceMobile's daily-return distribution over the long window. Days left of the target line are the only ones Sortino penalizes in the denominator — so a distribution with a fat left tail produces a smaller Sortino even at the same mean return.

Higher is better

excess annualized return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio AST SpaceMobile's Sortino ratio isolates downside volatility instead of all volatility. It is the cleaner lens when you care more about bad downside moves than upside noise. 1Y: 2.76; 5Y: 1.53.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

AST SpaceMobile Calmar Ratio

ASTS 1Y Calmar ratio

↑ 5.35

Recent window

ASTS 5Y Calmar ratio

↑ 0.62

Deeper research window

ASTS Calmar Ratio (5Y)

CAGR per worst drawdown

AST SpaceMobile's CAGR bar sits above zero, the max drawdown bar sits below. Calmar is the ratio of those two magnitudes — a shallow drawdown bar with a tall CAGR bar produces a strong Calmar.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio AST SpaceMobile's Calmar ratio measures return per unit of max drawdown. It is useful when the path of losses matters as much as the final return. 1Y: 5.35; 5Y: 0.62.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

AST SpaceMobile Sterling Ratio

ASTS 1Y Sterling ratio

↑ 9.46

Recent window

ASTS 5Y Sterling ratio

↑ 1.43

Deeper research window

ASTS Sterling Ratio (5Y)

Return per average drawdown

The underwater curve shows AST SpaceMobile's drawdowns over the long window. Sterling averages every event deeper than the 10% threshold instead of taking only the worst one — so an asset with many mid-size drawdowns scores worse here than on Calmar.

Higher is better

excess CAGR / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio AST SpaceMobile's Sterling ratio compares return against deep drawdown pressure. It gives a harsher read on assets that compound well but suffer ugly declines along the way. 1Y: 9.46; 5Y: 1.43.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

AST SpaceMobile Ulcer Index

ASTS 1Y Ulcer Index

21.42

Recent window

ASTS 5Y Ulcer Index

46.67

Deeper research window

ASTS Ulcer Index (5Y)

Drawdown pain

The underwater curve shows how deep and how long AST SpaceMobile's drawdowns were. Ulcer is the root-mean-square of that curve — both depth and persistence count, so lower is better.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index AST SpaceMobile's Ulcer Index measures both the depth and persistence of drawdowns. Lower is better because it means fewer and shallower underwater periods. 1Y: 21.42; 5Y: 46.67.

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

AST SpaceMobile Treynor Ratio

ASTS 1Y Treynor

↑ 0.61

Beta 2.81 vs SPY

ASTS 5Y Treynor

↑ 0.46

Beta 2.03 vs SPY

ASTS Treynor Ratio (5Y)

Excess return per beta vs SPY

The line's slope is AST SpaceMobile's beta to SPY — steeper means more market-sensitive. Treynor divides excess return by that slope, so an asset can look efficient with a shallow beta and a small return, or inefficient with a steep beta and a big return.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market beta versus SPY. A high Treynor means the asset compensated its market exposure well over this window. A low or negative Treynor means the asset's market risk wasn't rewarded.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

AST SpaceMobile Tail Risk

Tail-risk stats use daily return distributions rather than simple end-point returns. They show how ugly the left tail has been, how severe the worst 5% of days were, and whether returns were skewed toward outsized upside or downside shocks.

The histogram shows the shape of AST SpaceMobile's daily log returns over the 5Y window. Bars left of the 5% VaR marker are the worst 5% of days; the ES marker is the average loss inside that tail. Skew and excess kurtosis describe whether the distribution is symmetric around zero and whether extreme days are more common than a Normal distribution predicts.

ASTS daily return distribution (5Y)

Log-return histogram with Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall markers at the 5% left tail.

Days

worst-5% daily return and the average loss inside it

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%} = Q_{0.05}(R),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%} = \mathbb{E}[R \mid R \le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric	1Y	5Y
VaR (5%)	-10.0% Historical daily threshold	-9.3% Historical daily threshold
Expected shortfall (5%)	-11.7% Beyond the VaR threshold	-12.5% Beyond the VaR threshold
Skew	0.04	1.30
Excess kurtosis	-0.15	10.16

Less negative daily VaR and Expected Shortfall values mean the left tail was less violent. Skew and excess kurtosis help distinguish between steady compounding and a path dominated by occasional extreme moves.

Full stats table

Every window-consistent research metric

Each column keeps the same horizon across returns, ratios, drawdowns, and tail-risk metrics.

Metric	1Y Recent window	5Y Deeper research window
Total return	+251.2%	+725.5%
Annualized return	+251.6%	+52.6%
Volatility	98.9% Annualized daily closes	110.4% Annualized daily closes
Sharpe ratio	1.72	0.85
Sortino ratio	2.76	1.53
Calmar ratio	5.35	0.62
Sterling ratio	9.46	1.43
Ulcer Index	21.42	46.67
Max drawdown	-47.0% 2025-10-15 to 2025-11-20	-85.6% 2022-08-16 to 2024-04-02
VaR (5%)	-10.0% Historical daily threshold	-9.3% Historical daily threshold
Expected shortfall (5%)	-11.7% Beyond the VaR threshold	-12.5% Beyond the VaR threshold
Skew	0.04	1.30
Excess kurtosis	-0.15	10.16

What viewers usually ask next

What is AST SpaceMobile's 5Y CAGR?

AST SpaceMobile's 5y cagr is +52.6% on Gale using the past 5 years.

What is AST SpaceMobile's 1-year volatility?

Annualized volatility is 98.9% over the past year.

What is AST SpaceMobile's 5-year Sharpe ratio?

AST SpaceMobile's Sharpe ratio is 0.85 using the past 5 years.

What is AST SpaceMobile's 5-year Sortino ratio?

AST SpaceMobile's Sortino ratio is 1.53 using the past 5 years.

What is AST SpaceMobile's 5-year Calmar ratio?

AST SpaceMobile's Calmar ratio is 0.62 using the past 5 years.

What is AST SpaceMobile's 5-year Sterling ratio?

AST SpaceMobile's Sterling ratio is 1.43 using the past 5 years.

What is AST SpaceMobile's 5-year Ulcer Index?

AST SpaceMobile's Ulcer Index is 46.67 using the past 5 years. Lower is better because it means shallower and less persistent drawdowns.

What is AST SpaceMobile's 5-year max drawdown?

Max drawdown is -85.6% over the past 5 years from 2022-08-16 to 2024-04-02.

What is AST SpaceMobile's 5-year daily Value at Risk?

Using historical daily returns, Gale estimates a 5% Value at Risk of -9.32% over the past 5 years.

What is AST SpaceMobile's 5-year Expected Shortfall?

Expected Shortfall is -12.52% over the past 5 years, which captures the average outcome inside the worst 5% of daily returns.

Is AST SpaceMobile still below its all-time high?

Current drawdown is -35.5% versus the all-time high of $122.09 reached on 2026-01-29.

Which benchmark should viewers open first for AST SpaceMobile?

S&P 500 is the default benchmark lens on Gale because it gives the cleanest context for AST SpaceMobile's recent behavior.