ABNB vs BKNG: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: ABNB or BKNG?

Over the past year, ABNB looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (ABNB +9.8% vs BKNG -5.3%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (ABNB 0.32 vs BKNG -0.14). On risk, BKNG was less volatile (BKNG 32.0% vs ABNB 34.2%), ABNB had a smaller max drawdown (ABNB -21.5% vs BKNG -33.2%), and BKNG had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of BKNG -4.56% vs ABNB -5.13%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: ABNB or BKNG?

Over the past year, ABNB outperformed (+9.8% vs -5.3%) with a Sharpe ratio of 0.32.

Total Return

ABNB WIN +9.8%

BKNG -5.3%

Sharpe Ratio

ABNB WIN 0.32

BKNG -0.14

Annualized Volatility

ABNB 34.2%

BKNG WIN 32.0%

Max Drawdown

ABNB WIN -21.5%

BKNG -33.2%

Analysis period: 2025-04-03 to 2026-04-01

ABNB Total Return

↑ +9.8%

BKNG Total Return

↓ -5.3%

Relative Performance of ABNB vs BKNG (Normalized to 100)

ABNB BKNG

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: ABNB delivered a +9.8% total return, while BKNG returned -5.3% over the same period. ABNB outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): BKNG had a negative Sharpe (-0.14) while ABNB was positive (0.32), indicating ABNB had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): ABNB was more volatile, with 34.2% annualized volatility, versus 32.0% for BKNG.
Maximum Drawdown: ABNB's maximum drawdown was -21.5%, while BKNG experienced a deeper drawdown of -33.2%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), ABNB's VaR was -3.37% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -5.13%; BKNG's were -3.01% and -4.56%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: ABNB 0.40 vs BKNG 0.16. Excess kurtosis: ABNB 7.79 vs BKNG 5.31. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): ABNB 7/4, BKNG 5/4. Worst day: ABNB -8.02% (2025-08-07) vs BKNG -9.32% (2026-02-03). Best day: ABNB +14.79% (2025-04-09) vs BKNG +10.86% (2025-04-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - ABNB: 0.48 vs. BKNG: -0.21 , Calmar - ABNB: 0.46 vs. BKNG: -0.16 , Sterling - ABNB: 0.27 vs. BKNG: -0.29 , Treynor - ABNB: 0.09 vs. BKNG: -0.04 , Ulcer Index - ABNB: 9.89% vs. BKNG: 12.86%

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings Correlation

0.44 Average Correlation

Airbnb and Booking Holdings are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.44, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.56
Average (full period)	0.44
Minimum	-0.26
Maximum	0.82

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 3, 2025:

ABNB $10,984.47 +9.8%

BKNG $9,474.12 -5.3%

Difference: $1,510.35 (ABNB ahead)

Airbnb and Booking Holdings: Risk Analysis

Airbnb experienced its maximum drawdown of -21.5% from 2025-07-28 to 2025-11-20. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Booking Holdings experienced its maximum drawdown of -33.2% from 2025-07-07 to 2026-02-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

ABNB Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.32

BKNG Sharpe Ratio

↓ -0.14

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. BKNG had a negative Sharpe (-0.14) while ABNB was positive (0.32), indicating ABNB had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

ABNB Sortino Ratio

↑ 0.48

BKNG Sortino Ratio

↓ -0.21

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). ABNB had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: ABNB 23.3% vs BKNG 22.1%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

ABNB Calmar Ratio

↑ 0.46

BKNG Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.16

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. ABNB posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

ABNB Sterling Ratio

↑ 0.27

BKNG Sterling Ratio

↓ -0.29

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). ABNB posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

ABNB Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.09

BKNG Treynor Ratio

↓ -0.04

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. ABNB posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of ABNB and BKNG

ABNB Ulcer Index

9.89%

BKNG Ulcer Index

12.86%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. ABNB had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Airbnb vs. Booking Holdings

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	ABNB	BKNG
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.37%	-3.01%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-5.13% (worst 13 days)	-4.56% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.40	0.16
Excess kurtosis	7.79	5.31
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 4	5 / 4
Worst day	-8.02% (2025-08-07)	-9.32% (2026-02-03)
Best day	+14.79% (2025-04-09)	+10.86% (2025-04-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When BKNG has a big down day, ABNB also does

20.0%

1 / 5 days

When ABNB has a big down day, BKNG also does

14.3%

1 / 7 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both ABNB and BKNG had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	ABNB	BKNG
2026-02-03	-7.03%	-9.32%

Days when ABNB had a big down day

Date (interval)	ABNB	BKNG
2025-04-04	-6.41%	-3.74%
2025-04-10	-6.11%	-2.64%
2025-08-07	-8.02%	-1.88%
2026-01-14	-5.20%	-2.40%
2026-02-03	-7.03%	-9.32%
2026-03-12	-4.27%	-2.42%
2026-03-27	-6.25%	-3.60%

Days when BKNG had a big down day

Date (interval)	ABNB	BKNG
2025-11-14 → 2025-11-17	-3.62%	-4.83%
2026-02-03	-7.03%	-9.32%
2026-02-06 → 2026-02-09	-0.71%	-4.94%
2026-02-19	+1.24%	-6.15%
2026-02-20 → 2026-02-23	-3.85%	-5.05%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings Volatility (ABNB vs BKNG)

ABNB Volatility

34.2%

±2.15% daily

BKNG Volatility

32.0%

±2.01% daily

Typical daily swing

ABNB

±2.15%

BKNG

±2.01%

Airbnb's annualized volatility of 34.2% means it typically moves ±2.15% on any given day.

Booking Holdings's annualized volatility of 32.0% means it typically moves ±2.01% on any given day.

ABNB's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while BKNG's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings Performance Over Time

Metric	ABNB	BKNG
30 Days	-6.1%	0.3%
90 Days	-7.8%	-21.7%
180 Days	4.1%	-22.4%
1 Year	9.8%	-5.3%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Airbnb vs. Booking Holdings (1-Year)

Metric	ABNB	BKNG
Total Return	+9.8%	-5.3%
Annualized Volatility	34.2%	32.0%
Sharpe Ratio	0.32	-0.14
Sortino Ratio	0.48	-0.21
Calmar Ratio	0.46	-0.16
Sterling Ratio	0.27	-0.29
Treynor Ratio	0.09	-0.04
Ulcer Index	9.89%	12.86%
Max Drawdown	-21.5%	-33.2%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.48	0.40
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.37%	-3.01%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-5.13%	-4.56%
Skew	0.40	0.16
Excess kurtosis	7.79	5.31
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 4	5 / 4

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-03 → 2026-04-01 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): ABNB: 252 days/year; BKNG: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

ABNB: 4.18% over 2025-04-03 → 2026-04-01.

BKNG: 4.18% over 2025-04-03 → 2026-04-01.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

ABNB: ≈ -5.8%/yr

BKNG: ≈ -5.1%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: ABNB or BKNG?

ABNB showed higher volatility at 34.2% annualized, compared to 32.0% for BKNG Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does ABNB provide diversification when held with BKNG?

ABNB and BKNG are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.44. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for ABNB vs BKNG?

Over the past year, ABNB's 5% VaR was -3.37% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -5.13% (worst 13 days). BKNG's were -3.01% and -4.56% (worst 13 days).

Do ABNB and BKNG crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when BKNG has a 2σ down day, ABNB also does 20.0% (1/5 days). In the other direction, when ABNB has one, BKNG also does 14.3% (1/7 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: ABNB or BKNG?

BKNG had a negative Sharpe (-0.14) while ABNB was positive (0.32) Over the past year, indicating ABNB had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can ABNB and BKNG be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. ABNB's higher volatility (34.2%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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