AFRM vs UPST: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: AFRM or UPST?

Over the past year, AFRM looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (AFRM +19.0% vs UPST -31.8%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (AFRM 0.53 vs UPST -0.26). On risk, AFRM was less volatile (AFRM 63.5% vs UPST 70.2%), AFRM had a smaller max drawdown (AFRM -53.9% vs UPST -71.2%), and AFRM had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of AFRM -9.01% vs UPST -10.54%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: AFRM or UPST?

Over the past year, AFRM outperformed (+19.0% vs -31.8%) with a Sharpe ratio of 0.53.

Total Return

AFRM WIN +19.0%

UPST -31.8%

Sharpe Ratio

AFRM WIN 0.53

UPST -0.26

Annualized Volatility

AFRM WIN 63.5%

UPST 70.2%

Max Drawdown

AFRM WIN -53.9%

UPST -71.2%

Analysis period: 2025-04-14 to 2026-04-10

AFRM Total Return

↑ +19.0%

UPST Total Return

↓ -31.8%

Relative Performance of AFRM vs UPST (Normalized to 100)

AFRM UPST

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: AFRM delivered a +19.0% total return, while UPST returned -31.8% over the same period. AFRM outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): UPST had a negative Sharpe (-0.26) while AFRM was positive (0.53), indicating AFRM had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): UPST was more volatile, with 70.2% annualized volatility, versus 63.5% for AFRM.
Maximum Drawdown: AFRM's maximum drawdown was -53.9%, while UPST experienced a deeper drawdown of -71.2%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), AFRM's VaR was -6.84% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -9.01%; UPST's were -8.02% and -10.54%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: AFRM -0.10 vs UPST -0.61. Excess kurtosis: AFRM 1.66 vs UPST 1.75. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): AFRM 9/6, UPST 8/5. Worst day: AFRM -14.47% (2025-05-09) vs UPST -18.74% (2025-08-06). Best day: AFRM +15.79% (2025-05-12) vs UPST +12.27% (2025-05-12).
Risk ratios: Sortino - AFRM: 0.77 vs. UPST: -0.35 , Calmar - AFRM: 0.36 vs. UPST: -0.45 , Sterling - AFRM: 0.64 vs. UPST: -1.32 , Treynor - AFRM: 0.13 vs. UPST: -0.07 , Ulcer Index - AFRM: 24.42% vs. UPST: 40.25%

Affirm Holdings vs Upstart Holdings Correlation

0.59 Average Correlation

Affirm Holdings and Upstart Holdings are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.59, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.79
Average (full period)	0.59
Minimum	0.10
Maximum	0.84

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 14, 2025:

AFRM $11,900.44 +19.0%

UPST $6,821.82 -31.8%

Difference: $5,078.62 (AFRM ahead)

Affirm Holdings and Upstart Holdings: Risk Analysis

Affirm Holdings experienced its maximum drawdown of -53.9% from 2025-09-19 to 2026-03-27. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Upstart Holdings experienced its maximum drawdown of -71.2% from 2025-07-23 to 2026-03-30. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of AFRM and UPST

AFRM Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.53

UPST Sharpe Ratio

↓ -0.26

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. UPST had a negative Sharpe (-0.26) while AFRM was positive (0.53), indicating AFRM had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of AFRM and UPST

AFRM Sortino Ratio

↑ 0.77

UPST Sortino Ratio

↓ -0.35

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). AFRM had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: AFRM 43.4% vs UPST 52.2%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of AFRM and UPST

AFRM Calmar Ratio

↑ 0.36

UPST Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.45

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. AFRM posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of AFRM and UPST

AFRM Sterling Ratio

↑ 0.64

UPST Sterling Ratio

↓ -1.32

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). AFRM posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of AFRM and UPST

AFRM Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.13

UPST Treynor Ratio

↓ -0.07

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. AFRM posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of AFRM and UPST

AFRM Ulcer Index

24.42%

UPST Ulcer Index

40.25%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. AFRM had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Affirm Holdings vs. Upstart Holdings

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	AFRM	UPST
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.84%	-8.02%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.01% (worst 13 days)	-10.54% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.10	-0.61
Excess kurtosis	1.66	1.75
2σ tail days (down / up)	9 / 6	8 / 5
Worst day	-14.47% (2025-05-09)	-18.74% (2025-08-06)
Best day	+15.79% (2025-05-12)	+12.27% (2025-05-12)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=248). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When UPST has a big down day, AFRM also does

25.0%

2 / 8 days

When AFRM has a big down day, UPST also does

22.2%

2 / 9 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both AFRM and UPST had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	AFRM	UPST
2025-11-06	-7.77%	-9.64%
2026-02-12	-11.99%	-8.79%

Days when AFRM had a big down day

Date (interval)	AFRM	UPST
2025-05-09	-14.47%	-1.59%
2025-05-15	-8.49%	-7.66%
2025-08-08	-8.40%	-1.11%
2025-09-23	-8.20%	-3.88%
2025-10-10	-8.16%	-7.24%
2025-11-06	-7.77%	-9.64%
2026-02-12	-11.99%	-8.79%
2026-02-20 → 2026-02-23	-7.75%	-6.93%
2026-03-12	-8.68%	-6.22%

Days when UPST had a big down day

Date (interval)	AFRM	UPST
2025-05-07	+1.06%	-9.65%
2025-08-06	+3.23%	-18.74%
2025-09-10	-4.01%	-9.43%
2025-11-05	+0.15%	-9.71%
2025-11-06	-7.77%	-9.64%
2026-02-05	-4.41%	-8.70%
2026-02-11	-5.21%	-15.04%
2026-02-12	-11.99%	-8.79%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Affirm Holdings vs Upstart Holdings Volatility (AFRM vs UPST)

AFRM Volatility

63.5%

±4% daily

UPST Volatility

70.2%

±4.42% daily

Typical daily swing

AFRM

±4%

UPST

±4.42%

Affirm Holdings's annualized volatility of 63.5% means it typically moves ±4% on any given day.

Upstart Holdings's annualized volatility of 70.2% means it typically moves ±4.42% on any given day.

UPST's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while AFRM's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Affirm Holdings vs Upstart Holdings Performance Over Time

Metric	AFRM	UPST
30 Days	-4.4%	-0.8%
90 Days	-40.7%	-44.5%
180 Days	-31.8%	-43.9%
1 Year	19%	-31.8%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Affirm Holdings vs. Upstart Holdings (1-Year)

Metric	AFRM	UPST
Total Return	+19.0%	-31.8%
Annualized Volatility	63.5%	70.2%
Sharpe Ratio	0.53	-0.26
Sortino Ratio	0.77	-0.35
Calmar Ratio	0.36	-0.45
Sterling Ratio	0.64	-1.32
Treynor Ratio	0.13	-0.07
Ulcer Index	24.42%	40.25%
Max Drawdown	-53.9%	-71.2%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.50	0.47
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.84%	-8.02%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.01%	-10.54%
Skew	-0.10	-0.61
Excess kurtosis	1.66	1.75
2σ tail days (down / up)	9 / 6	8 / 5

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 219 rolling 30-day values (from 248 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): AFRM: 252 days/year; UPST: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

AFRM: 4.17% over 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10.

UPST: 4.17% over 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

AFRM: ≈ -20.2%/yr

UPST: ≈ -24.6%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Affirm Holdings vs Upstart Holdings: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: AFRM or UPST?

UPST showed higher volatility at 70.2% annualized, compared to 63.5% for AFRM Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does AFRM provide diversification when held with UPST?

AFRM and UPST are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.59. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for AFRM vs UPST?

Over the past year, AFRM's 5% VaR was -6.84% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -9.01% (worst 13 days). UPST's were -8.02% and -10.54% (worst 13 days).

Do AFRM and UPST crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=248), when UPST has a 2σ down day, AFRM also does 25.0% (2/8 days). In the other direction, when AFRM has one, UPST also does 22.2% (2/9 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: AFRM or UPST?

UPST had a negative Sharpe (-0.26) while AFRM was positive (0.53) Over the past year, indicating AFRM had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can AFRM and UPST be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. UPST's higher volatility (70.2%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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