ALAB vs MRVL: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: ALAB or MRVL?

Over the past year, ALAB looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (ALAB +38.7% vs MRVL -26.5%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (ALAB 0.77 vs MRVL -0.21). On risk, MRVL was less volatile (MRVL 65.2% vs ALAB 93.0%), ALAB had a smaller max drawdown (ALAB -49.7% vs MRVL -55.5%), and MRVL had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of MRVL -10.80% vs ALAB -13.07%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: ALAB or MRVL?

Over the past year, ALAB outperformed (+38.7% vs -26.5%) with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77.

Total Return

ALAB WIN +38.7%

MRVL -26.5%

Sharpe Ratio

ALAB WIN 0.77

MRVL -0.21

Annualized Volatility

ALAB 93.0%

MRVL WIN 65.2%

Max Drawdown

ALAB WIN -49.7%

MRVL -55.5%

Analysis period: 2025-02-18 to 2026-02-13

ALAB Total Return

↑ +38.7%

MRVL Total Return

↓ -26.5%

Relative Performance of ALAB vs MRVL (Normalized to 100)

ALAB MRVL

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: ALAB delivered a +38.7% total return, while MRVL returned -26.5% over the same period. ALAB outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): MRVL had a negative Sharpe (-0.21) while ALAB was positive (0.77), indicating ALAB had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): ALAB was more volatile, with 93.0% annualized volatility, versus 65.2% for MRVL.
Maximum Drawdown: ALAB's maximum drawdown was -49.7%, while MRVL experienced a deeper drawdown of -55.5%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), ALAB's VaR was -8.89% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -13.07%; MRVL's were -6.28% and -10.80%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: ALAB -0.03 vs MRVL -0.90. Excess kurtosis: ALAB 3.01 vs MRVL 6.71. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): ALAB 6/7, MRVL 5/1. Worst day: ALAB -21.41% (2026-02-11) vs MRVL -19.81% (2025-03-06). Best day: ALAB +28.66% (2025-08-06) vs MRVL +21.85% (2025-04-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - ALAB: 1.18 vs. MRVL: -0.28 , Calmar - ALAB: 0.79 vs. MRVL: -0.48 , Sterling - ALAB: 1.19 vs. MRVL: -0.56 , Treynor - ALAB: 0.30 vs. MRVL: -0.06 , Ulcer Index - ALAB: 25.92% vs. MRVL: 33.14%

Astera Labs vs Marvell Correlation

0.48 Average Correlation

Astera Labs and Marvell are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.48, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.55
Average (full period)	0.48
Minimum	0.10
Maximum	0.95

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 18, 2025:

ALAB $13,865.12 +38.7%

MRVL $7,351.6 -26.5%

Difference: $6,513.52 (ALAB ahead)

Astera Labs and Marvell: Risk Analysis

Astera Labs experienced its maximum drawdown of -49.7% from 2025-09-18 to 2026-02-12. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Marvell experienced its maximum drawdown of -55.5% from 2025-02-19 to 2025-04-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of ALAB and MRVL

ALAB Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.77

MRVL Sharpe Ratio

↓ -0.21

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. MRVL had a negative Sharpe (-0.21) while ALAB was positive (0.77), indicating ALAB had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of ALAB and MRVL

ALAB Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.18

MRVL Sortino Ratio

↓ -0.28

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). ALAB had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: ALAB 60.8% vs MRVL 48.5%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of ALAB and MRVL

ALAB Calmar Ratio

↑ 0.79

MRVL Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.48

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. ALAB posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of ALAB and MRVL

ALAB Sterling Ratio

↑ 1.19

MRVL Sterling Ratio

↓ -0.56

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). ALAB posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of ALAB and MRVL

ALAB Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.30

MRVL Treynor Ratio

↓ -0.06

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. ALAB posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of ALAB and MRVL

ALAB Ulcer Index

25.92%

MRVL Ulcer Index

33.14%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. ALAB had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Astera Labs vs. Marvell

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	ALAB	MRVL
5% VaR (daily log return)	-8.89%	-6.28%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-13.07% (worst 13 days)	-10.80% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.03	-0.90
Excess kurtosis	3.01	6.71
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 7	5 / 1
Worst day	-21.41% (2026-02-11)	-19.81% (2025-03-06)
Best day	+28.66% (2025-08-06)	+21.85% (2025-04-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When MRVL has a big down day, ALAB also does

20.0%

1 / 5 days

When ALAB has a big down day, MRVL also does

16.7%

1 / 6 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both ALAB and MRVL had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	ALAB	MRVL
2025-04-03	-13.11%	-12.00%

Days when ALAB had a big down day

Date (interval)	ALAB	MRVL
2025-04-03	-13.11%	-12.00%
2025-10-14	-19.03%	-3.55%
2025-12-02	-13.47%	+1.96%
2025-12-12	-14.31%	-5.60%
2026-02-11	-21.41%	-0.82%
2026-02-12	-11.92%	-3.82%

Days when MRVL had a big down day

Date (interval)	ALAB	MRVL
2025-03-06	-7.41%	-19.81%
2025-04-03	-13.11%	-12.00%
2025-04-04	-4.92%	-11.16%
2025-04-10	-8.50%	-13.27%
2025-08-29	-3.67%	-18.60%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Astera Labs vs Marvell Volatility (ALAB vs MRVL)

ALAB Volatility

93.0%

±5.86% daily

MRVL Volatility

65.2%

±4.11% daily

Typical daily swing

ALAB

±5.86%

MRVL

±4.11%

Astera Labs's annualized volatility of 93.0% means it typically moves ±5.86% on any given day.

Marvell's annualized volatility of 65.2% means it typically moves ±4.11% on any given day.

ALAB's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while MRVL's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Astera Labs vs Marvell Performance Over Time

Metric	ALAB	MRVL
30 Days	-24.9%	-3.2%
90 Days	-10.4%	-9%
180 Days	-30.4%	3.3%
1 Year	N/A	N/A

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Astera Labs vs. Marvell (1-Year)

Metric	ALAB	MRVL
Total Return	+38.7%	-26.5%
Annualized Volatility	93.0%	65.2%
Sharpe Ratio	0.77	-0.21
Sortino Ratio	1.18	-0.28
Calmar Ratio	0.79	-0.48
Sterling Ratio	1.19	-0.56
Treynor Ratio	0.30	-0.06
Ulcer Index	25.92%	33.14%
Max Drawdown	-49.7%	-55.5%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.45	0.55
5% VaR (daily log return)	-8.89%	-6.28%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-13.07%	-10.80%
Skew	-0.03	-0.90
Excess kurtosis	3.01	6.71
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 7	5 / 1

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-18 → 2026-02-13 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): ALAB: 252 days/year; MRVL: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

ALAB: 4.20% over 2025-02-18 → 2026-02-13.

MRVL: 4.20% over 2025-02-18 → 2026-02-13.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

ALAB: ≈ -43.2%/yr

MRVL: ≈ -21.3%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Astera Labs vs Marvell: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: ALAB or MRVL?

ALAB showed higher volatility at 93.0% annualized, compared to 65.2% for MRVL Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does ALAB provide diversification when held with MRVL?

ALAB and MRVL are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.48. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for ALAB vs MRVL?

Over the past year, ALAB's 5% VaR was -8.89% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -13.07% (worst 13 days). MRVL's were -6.28% and -10.80% (worst 13 days).

Do ALAB and MRVL crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when MRVL has a 2σ down day, ALAB also does 20.0% (1/5 days). In the other direction, when ALAB has one, MRVL also does 16.7% (1/6 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: ALAB or MRVL?

MRVL had a negative Sharpe (-0.21) while ALAB was positive (0.77) Over the past year, indicating ALAB had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can ALAB and MRVL be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. ALAB's higher volatility (93.0%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.