AVAV vs DPRO: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: AVAV or DPRO?

Over the past 6 months, it depends: DPRO led on total return (DPRO +171.1% vs AVAV +110.5%), but AVAV had the higher Sharpe ratio (AVAV 1.45 vs DPRO 1.43). On risk, AVAV was less volatile (AVAV 67.9% vs DPRO 142.6%), AVAV had a smaller max drawdown (AVAV -44.1% vs DPRO -55.8%), and AVAV had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of AVAV -9.46% vs DPRO -19.64%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: AVAV or DPRO?

Over the past year, results are mixed (+110.5% vs +171.1%).

Total Return

AVAV +110.5%

DPRO WIN +171.1%

Sharpe Ratio

AVAV WIN 1.45

DPRO 1.43

Annualized Volatility

AVAV WIN 67.9%

DPRO 142.6%

Max Drawdown

AVAV WIN -44.1%

DPRO -55.8%

Analysis period: 2025-03-17 to 2026-02-20

AVAV Total Return

↑ +110.5%

DPRO Total Return

↑ +171.1%

Relative Performance of AVAV vs DPRO (Normalized to 100)

AVAV DPRO

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: AVAV delivered a +110.5% total return, while DPRO returned +171.1% over the same period. DPRO outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): AVAV had a higher Sharpe (1.45 vs 1.43), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): DPRO was more volatile, with 142.6% annualized volatility, versus 67.9% for AVAV.
Maximum Drawdown: AVAV's maximum drawdown was -44.1%, while DPRO experienced a deeper drawdown of -55.8%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), AVAV's VaR was -6.24% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -9.46%; DPRO's were -11.81% and -19.64%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: AVAV 0.24 vs DPRO -0.27. Excess kurtosis: AVAV 3.88 vs DPRO 4.33. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): AVAV 6/6, DPRO 4/5. Worst day: AVAV -15.77% (2026-01-20) vs DPRO -33.15% (2025-06-11). Best day: AVAV +21.55% (2025-06-25) vs DPRO +43.49% (2025-07-16).
Risk ratios: Sortino - AVAV: 2.35 vs. DPRO: 2.32 , Calmar - AVAV: 2.78 vs. DPRO: 3.44 , Sterling - AVAV: 4.45 vs. DPRO: 4.75 , Treynor - AVAV: 0.77 vs. DPRO: 1.15 , Ulcer Index - AVAV: 18.98% vs. DPRO: 34.24%

AeroVironment vs Draganfly Correlation

0.34 Average Correlation

AeroVironment and Draganfly are moderately correlated over the past 6 months. With a correlation of 0.34, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.55
Average (full period)	0.34
Minimum	-0.09
Maximum	0.70

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on March 17, 2025:

AVAV $21,045.81 +110.5%

DPRO $27,113.4 +171.1%

Difference: $6,067.59 (DPRO ahead)

AeroVironment and Draganfly: Risk Analysis

AeroVironment experienced its maximum drawdown of -44.1% from 2025-10-13 to 2025-12-17. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Draganfly experienced its maximum drawdown of -55.8% from 2025-10-13 to 2025-12-17. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of AVAV and DPRO

AVAV Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.45

DPRO Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.43

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. AVAV had a higher Sharpe (1.45 vs 1.43), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of AVAV and DPRO

AVAV Sortino Ratio

↑ 2.35

DPRO Sortino Ratio

↑ 2.32

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). AVAV had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: AVAV 41.9% vs DPRO 87.6%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of AVAV and DPRO

AVAV Calmar Ratio

↑ 2.78

DPRO Calmar Ratio

↑ 3.44

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. DPRO posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of AVAV and DPRO

AVAV Sterling Ratio

↑ 4.45

DPRO Sterling Ratio

↑ 4.75

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). DPRO posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of AVAV and DPRO

AVAV Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.77

DPRO Treynor Ratio

↑ 1.15

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. DPRO posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of AVAV and DPRO

AVAV Ulcer Index

18.98%

DPRO Ulcer Index

34.24%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. AVAV had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): AeroVironment vs. Draganfly

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	AVAV	DPRO
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.24%	-11.81%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.46% (worst 12 days)	-19.64% (worst 12 days)
Skew	0.24	-0.27
Excess kurtosis	3.88	4.33
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 6	4 / 5
Worst day	-15.77% (2026-01-20)	-33.15% (2025-06-11)
Best day	+21.55% (2025-06-25)	+43.49% (2025-07-16)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=234). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When DPRO has a big down day, AVAV also does

0.0%

0 / 4 days

When AVAV has a big down day, DPRO also does

0.0%

0 / 6 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both AVAV and DPRO had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when AVAV had a big down day

Date (interval)	AVAV	DPRO
2025-07-01	-11.42%	+3.47%
2025-11-13	-8.61%	-7.18%
2025-12-10	-12.85%	-2.28%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-15.77%	-1.77%
2026-02-04	-9.85%	-12.06%
2026-02-05	-7.94%	-10.25%

Days when DPRO had a big down day

Date (interval)	AVAV	DPRO
2025-05-02	+2.31%	-32.52%
2025-06-11	-0.05%	-33.15%
2025-07-18	-1.63%	-24.52%
2025-10-16	-2.75%	-16.70%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

AeroVironment vs Draganfly Volatility (AVAV vs DPRO)

AVAV Volatility

67.9%

±4.28% daily

DPRO Volatility

142.6%

±8.98% daily

Typical daily swing

AVAV

±4.28%

DPRO

±8.98%

AeroVironment's annualized volatility of 67.9% means it typically moves ±4.28% on any given day.

Draganfly's annualized volatility of 142.6% means it typically moves ±8.98% on any given day.

DPRO's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while AVAV's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

AeroVironment vs Draganfly Performance Over Time

Metric	AVAV	DPRO
30 Days	-17.2%	-12.5%
90 Days	-2.9%	19.2%
180 Days	10.3%	81.8%
1 Year	N/A	N/A

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of AeroVironment vs. Draganfly (1-Year)

Metric	AVAV	DPRO
Total Return	+110.5%	+171.1%
Annualized Volatility	67.9%	142.6%
Sharpe Ratio	1.45	1.43
Sortino Ratio	2.35	2.32
Calmar Ratio	2.78	3.44
Sterling Ratio	4.45	4.75
Treynor Ratio	0.77	1.15
Ulcer Index	18.98%	34.24%
Max Drawdown	-44.1%	-55.8%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.31	0.25
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.24%	-11.81%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.46%	-19.64%
Skew	0.24	-0.27
Excess kurtosis	3.88	4.33
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 6	4 / 5

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-03-17 → 2026-02-20 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 205 rolling 30-day values (from 234 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): AVAV: 252 days/year; DPRO: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

AVAV: 4.19% over 2025-03-17 → 2026-02-20.

DPRO: 4.19% over 2025-03-17 → 2026-02-20.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

AVAV: ≈ -23.1%/yr

DPRO: ≈ -101.7%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

AeroVironment vs Draganfly: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: AVAV or DPRO?

DPRO showed higher volatility at 142.6% annualized, compared to 67.9% for AVAV Over the past 6 months. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does AVAV provide diversification when held with DPRO?

AVAV and DPRO are moderately correlated over the past 6 months, with an average correlation of 0.34. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for AVAV vs DPRO?

Over the past 6 months, AVAV's 5% VaR was -6.24% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -9.46% (worst 12 days). DPRO's were -11.81% and -19.64% (worst 12 days).

Do AVAV and DPRO crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=234), when DPRO has a 2σ down day, AVAV also does 0.0% (0/4 days). In the other direction, when AVAV has one, DPRO also does 0.0% (0/6 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: AVAV or DPRO?

AVAV showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.45 versus DPRO's 1.43 Over the past 6 months.

Can AVAV and DPRO be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. DPRO's higher volatility (142.6%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary