BMNR vs ETH: Returns, Risk & Volatility (2025)

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Analysis period: 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31

BMNR Total Return

↑ +257.8%

ETH Total Return

↑ +22.6%

Relative Performance of BMNR vs ETH (Normalized to 100)

BMNR ETH

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: BMNR delivered a +257.8% total return, while ETH returned +22.6% over the same period. BMNR outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): BMNR had a higher Sharpe (1.34 vs 0.80), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): BMNR was more volatile, with 949.5% annualized volatility, versus 68.1% for ETH.
Maximum Drawdown: ETH's maximum drawdown was -42.7%, while BMNR experienced a deeper drawdown of -80.7%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), BMNR's VaR was -11.90% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -21.75%; ETH's were -5.95% and -8.91%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: BMNR 7.04 vs ETH 0.20. Excess kurtosis: BMNR 65.98 vs ETH 3.27. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): BMNR 1/2, ETH 11/9. Worst day: BMNR -40.16% (2025-07-09) vs ETH -14.66% (2025-03-03). Best day: BMNR +694.84% (2025-06-30) vs ETH +21.39% (2025-05-08).
Risk ratios: Sortino - BMNR: 12.09 vs. ETH: 1.23 , Calmar - BMNR: N/A vs. ETH: N/A , Sterling - BMNR: N/A vs. ETH: N/A , Treynor - BMNR: N/A vs. ETH: N/A , Ulcer Index - BMNR: N/A vs. ETH: N/A

Bitmine vs Ethereum Correlation

0.62 Average Correlation

Bitmine and Ethereum were strongly correlated in 2025. With a correlation of 0.62, these assets tended to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both BMNR and ETH provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.86
Average (full period)	0.62
Minimum	-0.08
Maximum	0.88

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 1, 2025:

BMNR $35,777.722 +257.8%

ETH $12,264.842 +22.6%

Difference: $23,512.88 (BMNR ahead)

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Bitmine and Ethereum: Risk Analysis

Bitmine experienced its maximum drawdown of -80.7% from 2025-07-03 to 2025-11-21. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Ethereum experienced its maximum drawdown of -42.7% from 2025-08-22 to 2025-11-21. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of BMNR and ETH

BMNR Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.34

ETH Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.80

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. BMNR had a higher Sharpe (1.34 vs 0.80), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of BMNR and ETH

BMNR Sortino Ratio

↑ 12.09

ETH Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.23

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). BMNR had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: BMNR 105.1% vs ETH 44.4%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (2025): Bitmine vs. Ethereum

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (2025)	BMNR	ETH
5% VaR (daily log return)	-11.90%	-5.95%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-21.75% (worst 8 days)	-8.91% (worst 19 days)
Skew	7.04	0.20
Excess kurtosis	65.98	3.27
2σ tail days (down / up)	1 / 2	11 / 9
Worst day	-40.16% (2025-07-09)	-14.66% (2025-03-03)
Best day	+694.84% (2025-06-30)	+21.39% (2025-05-08)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 2025

Computed on shared dates only (n=143). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When ETH has a big down day, BMNR also does

0.0%

0 / 3 days

When BMNR has a big down day, ETH also does

0.0%

0 / 1 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both BMNR and ETH had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when BMNR had a big down day

Date (interval)	BMNR	ETH
2025-07-09	-40.16%	+5.99%

Days when ETH had a big down day

Date (interval)	BMNR	ETH
2025-08-22 → 2025-08-25	-7.27%	-9.27%
2025-10-10	-11.22%	-12.20%
2025-11-04	-7.93%	-8.44%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Bitmine vs. Ethereum (2025)

Metric	BMNR	ETH
Total Return	+257.8%	+22.6%
Annualized Volatility	949.5%	68.1%
Sharpe Ratio	1.34	0.80
Sortino Ratio	12.09	1.23
Calmar Ratio	N/A	N/A
Sterling Ratio	N/A	N/A
Treynor Ratio	N/A	N/A
Ulcer Index	N/A	N/A
Max Drawdown	-80.7%	-42.7%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	N/A	N/A
5% VaR (daily log return)	-11.90%	-5.95%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-21.75%	-8.91%
Skew	7.04	0.20
Excess kurtosis	65.98	3.27
2σ tail days (down / up)	1 / 2	11 / 9

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-01-01 → 2025-12-31 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): N/A
Annualization (days/year): BMNR: 252 days/year; ETH: 365 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

BMNR: 4.22%.

ETH: 4.22%.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

BMNR: ≈ -4507.8%/yr

ETH: ≈ -23.2%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Bitmine vs Ethereum: Frequently Asked Questions

Which had higher volatility: BMNR or ETH?

BMNR showed higher volatility at 949.5% annualized, compared to 68.1% for ETH During 2025. Higher volatility meant larger price swings in both directions.

Did BMNR provide diversification when held with ETH?

BMNR and ETH were strongly correlated in 2025, with an average correlation of 0.62. This strong correlation limited diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for BMNR vs ETH?

During 2025, BMNR's 5% VaR was -11.90% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -21.75% (worst 8 days). ETH's were -5.95% and -8.91% (worst 19 days).

Do BMNR and ETH crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=143), when ETH has a 2σ down day, BMNR also does 0.0% (0/3 days). In the other direction, when BMNR has one, ETH also does 0.0% (0/1 days).

Which had better risk-adjusted returns: BMNR or ETH?

BMNR showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.34 versus ETH's 0.80 During 2025.

Could BMNR and ETH have been combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing mattered. Their strong correlation provided limited risk reduction since they tended to move together. BMNR's higher volatility (949.5%) meant even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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