Bitmine vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (BMNR vs ETHA) 2026: Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: BMNR or ETHA?

Over the past year, ETHA looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (ETHA +79.6% vs BMNR -55.7%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (ETHA 0.79 vs BMNR -0.49). On risk, BMNR was less volatile (BMNR 91.3% vs ETHA 215.5%), ETHA had a smaller max drawdown (ETHA -65.6% vs BMNR -77.8%), and ETHA had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of ETHA -9.29% vs BMNR -11.46%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Returns shown in USD.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: BMNR or ETHA?

Over the past year, ETHA outperformed BMNR. ETHA returned +79.6% compared with BMNR’s -55.7%. ETHA had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.79 versus BMNR’s -0.49. BMNR was less volatile than ETHA, but ETHA had a smaller max drawdown than BMNR.

Total Return

BMNR -55.7%

ETHA +79.6%

Sharpe Ratio

BMNR -0.49

ETHA 0.79

Annualized Volatility

BMNR 91.3%

ETHA 215.5%

Max Drawdown

BMNR -77.8%

ETHA -65.6%

Metric winners: Total Return: ETHA; Sharpe Ratio: ETHA; Annualized Volatility: BMNR (less volatile); Max Drawdown: ETHA (smaller drawdown).

BMNR Total Return

↓ -55.7%

ETHA Total Return

↑ +79.6%

Relative Performance of BMNR vs ETHA (Normalized to 100)

BMNR ETHA

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: BMNR delivered a -55.7% total return, while ETHA returned +79.6% over the same period. ETHA outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): BMNR had a negative Sharpe (-0.49) while ETHA was positive (0.79), indicating ETHA had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): ETHA was more volatile, with 215.5% annualized volatility, versus 91.3% for BMNR.
Maximum Drawdown: ETHA's maximum drawdown was -65.6%, while BMNR experienced a deeper drawdown of -77.8%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), BMNR's VaR was -10.10% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -11.46%; ETHA's were -5.94% and -9.29%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: BMNR 0.19 vs ETHA 10.22. Excess kurtosis: BMNR 0.11 vs ETHA 137.91. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): BMNR 5/6, ETHA 0/1. Worst day: BMNR -14.29% (2026-02-05) vs ETHA -13.95% (2026-02-05). Best day: BMNR +19.62% (2025-11-24) vs ETHA +204.77% (2026-10-05).
Risk ratios: Sortino - BMNR: -0.71 vs. ETHA: 3.74 , Calmar - BMNR: -0.72 vs. ETHA: 1.22 , Sterling - BMNR: -0.77 vs. ETHA: 1.16 , Treynor - BMNR: -0.11 vs. ETHA: 0.52 , Ulcer Index - BMNR: 59.64% vs. ETHA: 47.04%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on October 7, 2025:

BMNR $4,426.91 -55.7%

ETHA $17,961.65 +79.6%

Difference: $13,534.74 (ETHA ahead)

Bitmine vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Performance Over Time

Metric	BMNR	ETHA
30 Days	4.9%	228.8%
90 Days	76.3%	364.5%
180 Days	24.3%	263.1%
1 Year	-55.7%	79.6%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Bitmine vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Correlation

Average Correlation

strongly correlated

0.86

Current (30-day) 0.12

30-day rolling range +0.11 to +0.95

Bitmine and iShares Ethereum Trust ETF are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.86, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both BMNR and ETHA provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.12
Average (full period)	0.86
Minimum (30-day rolling)	0.11
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.95

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

BMNR

-77.8%

ETHA

-65.6%

Bitmine experienced its maximum drawdown of -77.8% from 2025-10-08 to 2026-06-30. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

iShares Ethereum Trust ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -65.6% from 2025-10-08 to 2026-06-25. It took 102 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Bitmine vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Volatility (BMNR vs ETHA)

BMNR Volatility

91.3%

±5.75% 1-day vol

ETHA Volatility

215.5%

±13.57% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

BMNR

±5.75%

ETHA

±13.57%

Bitmine's 91.3% annualized volatility translates to about ±5.75% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

iShares Ethereum Trust ETF's 215.5% annualized volatility translates to about ±13.57% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

ETHA had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; BMNR was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of BMNR and ETHA

Sharpe Ratio: BMNR vs. ETHA

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. BMNR had a negative Sharpe (-0.49) while ETHA was positive (0.79), indicating ETHA had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of BMNR and ETHA

Sortino Ratio: BMNR vs. ETHA

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). ETHA had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: BMNR 63.0% vs ETHA 45.4%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of BMNR and ETHA

Calmar Ratio: BMNR vs. ETHA

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. ETHA posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of BMNR and ETHA

Sterling Ratio: BMNR vs. ETHA

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). ETHA posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of BMNR and ETHA

Treynor Ratio: BMNR vs. ETHA

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. ETHA posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of BMNR and ETHA

Ulcer Index: BMNR vs. ETHA

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. ETHA had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Bitmine vs. iShares Ethereum Trust ETF

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: BMNR vs. ETHA (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	BMNR	ETHA
5% VaR (daily log return)	-10.10%	-5.94%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-11.46% (worst 13 days)	-9.29% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.19	10.22
Excess kurtosis	0.11	137.91
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 6	0 / 1
Worst day	-14.29% (2026-02-05)	-13.95% (2026-02-05)
Best day	+19.62% (2025-11-24)	+204.77% (2026-10-05)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=250). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: BMNR vs. ETHA (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both BMNR and ETHA crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both BMNR and ETHA had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when BMNR had a big down day

Date (interval)	BMNR	ETHA
2025-10-10	-11.22%	-7.95%
2025-11-28 → 2025-12-01	-12.62%	-9.50%
2025-12-12 → 2025-12-15	-11.22%	-4.94%
2026-02-05	-14.29%	-13.95%
2026-06-05	-11.12%	-11.35%

Days when ETHA had a big down day

None in this window.

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Bitmine vs. iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (1-Year)

Metric	BMNR	ETHA
Total Return	-55.7%	+79.6%
Annualized Volatility	91.3%	215.5%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.49	0.79
Sortino Ratio	-0.71	3.74
Calmar Ratio	-0.72	1.22
Sterling Ratio	-0.77	1.16
Treynor Ratio	-0.11	0.52
Ulcer Index	59.64%	47.04%
Max Drawdown	-77.8%	-65.6%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.59	0.53
5% VaR (daily log return)	-10.10%	-5.94%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-11.46%	-9.29%
Skew	0.19	10.22
Excess kurtosis	0.11	137.91
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 6	0 / 1

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-10-07 → 2026-10-06 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 221 rolling 30-day values (from 250 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): BMNR: 252 days/year; ETHA: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

BMNR: 3.81% over 2025-10-07 → 2026-10-06.

ETHA: 3.81% over 2025-10-07 → 2026-10-06.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

BMNR: ≈ -41.7%/yr

ETHA: ≈ -232.2%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Bitmine vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: BMNR or ETHA?

ETHA showed higher volatility at 215.5% annualized, compared to 91.3% for BMNR Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does BMNR provide diversification when held with ETHA?

BMNR and ETHA are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.86. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for BMNR vs ETHA?

Over the past year, BMNR's 5% VaR was -10.10% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -11.46% (worst 13 days). ETHA's were -5.94% and -9.29% (worst 13 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: BMNR or ETHA?

BMNR had a negative Sharpe (-0.49) while ETHA was positive (0.79) Over the past year, indicating ETHA had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can BMNR and ETHA be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. ETHA's higher volatility (215.5%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: BMNR or ETHA?

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Relative Performance of BMNR vs ETHA (Normalized to 100)

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Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Bitmine vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Performance Over Time

Bitmine vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Correlation

Drawdown

Bitmine vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Volatility (BMNR vs ETHA)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of BMNR and ETHA

Sharpe Ratio: BMNR vs. ETHA

Sortino Ratio of BMNR and ETHA

Sortino Ratio: BMNR vs. ETHA

Calmar Ratio of BMNR and ETHA

Calmar Ratio: BMNR vs. ETHA

Sterling Ratio of BMNR and ETHA

Sterling Ratio: BMNR vs. ETHA

Treynor Ratio of BMNR and ETHA

Treynor Ratio: BMNR vs. ETHA

Ulcer Index of BMNR and ETHA

Ulcer Index: BMNR vs. ETHA

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Bitmine vs. iShares Ethereum Trust ETF

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: BMNR vs. ETHA (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: BMNR vs. ETHA (2σ)

Days when both BMNR and ETHA had a big down day (2σ)

Days when BMNR had a big down day

Days when ETHA had a big down day

Full Comparison of Bitmine vs. iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Bitmine vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: BMNR or ETHA?

Does BMNR provide diversification when held with ETHA?

How bad are the worst 5% days for BMNR vs ETHA?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: BMNR or ETHA?

Can BMNR and ETHA be combined in a portfolio?