BONK vs PEPE: Crypto Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: BONK or PEPE?

Over the past year, PEPE looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (PEPE -52.8% vs BONK -59.0%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (PEPE -0.17 vs BONK -0.19). On risk, PEPE was less volatile (PEPE 111.4% vs BONK 120.6%), PEPE had a smaller max drawdown (PEPE -78.8% vs BONK -85.7%), and PEPE had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of PEPE -11.99% vs BONK -12.59%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: BONK or PEPE?

Over the past year, PEPE outperformed (-59.0% vs -52.8%) with a Sharpe ratio of -0.17.

Total Return

BONK -59.0%

PEPE WIN -52.8%

Sharpe Ratio

BONK -0.19

PEPE WIN -0.17

Annualized Volatility

BONK 120.6%

PEPE WIN 111.4%

Max Drawdown

BONK -85.7%

PEPE WIN -78.8%

Analysis period: 2025-04-12 to 2026-04-11

BONK Total Return

↓ -59.0%

PEPE Total Return

↓ -52.8%

Relative Performance of BONK vs PEPE (Normalized to 100)

BONK PEPE

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: BONK delivered a -59.0% total return, while PEPE returned -52.8% over the same period. PEPE outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both Sharpe ratios were negative (PEPE -0.17 vs BONK -0.19), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; PEPE was less negative.
Volatility (Annualized): BONK was more volatile, with 120.6% annualized volatility, versus 111.4% for PEPE.
Maximum Drawdown: PEPE's maximum drawdown was -78.8%, while BONK experienced a deeper drawdown of -85.7%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), BONK's VaR was -8.97% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -12.59%; PEPE's were -8.05% and -11.99%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: BONK 0.31 vs PEPE 0.54. Excess kurtosis: BONK 4.70 vs PEPE 5.63. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): BONK 5/13, PEPE 6/11. Worst day: BONK -29.91% (2025-10-10) vs PEPE -26.46% (2025-10-10). Best day: BONK +31.20% (2025-07-16) vs PEPE +34.55% (2025-05-08).
Risk ratios: Sortino - BONK: -0.29 vs. PEPE: -0.28 , Calmar - BONK: -0.69 vs. PEPE: -0.67 , Sterling - BONK: -1.49 vs. PEPE: -1.58 , Treynor - BONK: -0.12 vs. PEPE: -0.49 , Ulcer Index - BONK: 59.30% vs. PEPE: 52.27%

Bonk vs Pepe Correlation

0.64 Average Correlation

Bonk and Pepe are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.64, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both BONK and PEPE provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.19
Average (full period)	0.64
Minimum	-0.41
Maximum	0.98

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 12, 2025:

BONK $4,102.01 -59.0%

PEPE $4,717.74 -52.8%

Difference: $615.73 (PEPE ahead)

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Bonk and Pepe: Risk Analysis

Bonk experienced its maximum drawdown of -85.7% from 2025-07-16 to 2026-04-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Pepe experienced its maximum drawdown of -78.8% from 2025-05-22 to 2026-03-07. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of BONK and PEPE

BONK Sharpe Ratio

↓ -0.19

PEPE Sharpe Ratio

↓ -0.17

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both Sharpe ratios were negative (PEPE -0.17 vs BONK -0.19), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; PEPE was less negative.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of BONK and PEPE

BONK Sortino Ratio

↓ -0.29

PEPE Sortino Ratio

↓ -0.28

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). PEPE had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: BONK 76.5% vs PEPE 70.3%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of BONK and PEPE

BONK Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.69

PEPE Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.67

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. PEPE posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of BONK and PEPE

BONK Sterling Ratio

↓ -1.49

PEPE Sterling Ratio

↓ -1.58

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). BONK posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of BONK and PEPE

BONK Treynor Ratio

↓ -0.12

PEPE Treynor Ratio

↓ -0.49

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. BONK posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of BONK and PEPE

BONK Ulcer Index

59.30%

PEPE Ulcer Index

52.27%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. PEPE had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Bonk vs. Pepe

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	BONK	PEPE
5% VaR (daily log return)	-8.97%	-8.05%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-12.59% (worst 19 days)	-11.99% (worst 19 days)
Skew	0.31	0.54
Excess kurtosis	4.70	5.63
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 13	6 / 11
Worst day	-29.91% (2025-10-10)	-26.46% (2025-10-10)
Best day	+31.20% (2025-07-16)	+34.55% (2025-05-08)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=364). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When PEPE has a big down day, BONK also does

50.0%

3 / 6 days

When BONK has a big down day, PEPE also does

60.0%

3 / 5 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both BONK and PEPE had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	BONK	PEPE
2025-05-30	-13.35%	-13.49%
2025-10-10	-29.91%	-26.46%
2025-11-03	-16.64%	-14.90%

Days when BONK had a big down day

Date (interval)	BONK	PEPE
2025-05-30	-13.35%	-13.49%
2025-08-14	-13.00%	-9.85%
2025-10-10	-29.91%	-26.46%
2025-11-03	-16.64%	-14.90%
2026-02-05	-15.90%	+11.58%

Days when PEPE had a big down day

Date (interval)	BONK	PEPE
2025-05-30	-13.35%	-13.49%
2025-10-10	-29.91%	-26.46%
2025-11-03	-16.64%	-14.90%
2026-01-30	-3.03%	-12.28%
2026-02-04	-0.71%	-15.31%
2026-02-14	+14.33%	-11.11%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Bonk vs Pepe Volatility (BONK vs PEPE)

BONK Volatility

120.6%

±6.31% daily

PEPE Volatility

111.4%

±5.83% daily

Typical daily swing

BONK

±6.31%

PEPE

±5.83%

Bonk's annualized volatility of 120.6% means it typically moves ±6.31% on any given day.

Pepe's annualized volatility of 111.4% means it typically moves ±5.83% on any given day.

BONK's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while PEPE's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Bonk vs Pepe Performance Over Time

Metric	BONK	PEPE
30 Days	-6.2%	4.2%
90 Days	-45.2%	-39.4%
180 Days	-65.7%	-55.2%
1 Year	-59%	-52.8%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Bonk vs. Pepe (1-Year)

Metric	BONK	PEPE
Total Return	-59.0%	-52.8%
Annualized Volatility	120.6%	111.4%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.19	-0.17
Sortino Ratio	-0.29	-0.28
Calmar Ratio	-0.69	-0.67
Sterling Ratio	-1.49	-1.58
Treynor Ratio	-0.12	-0.49
Ulcer Index	59.30%	52.27%
Max Drawdown	-85.7%	-78.8%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.37	0.36
5% VaR (daily log return)	-8.97%	-8.05%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-12.59%	-11.99%
Skew	0.31	0.54
Excess kurtosis	4.70	5.63
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 13	6 / 11

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-12 → 2026-04-11 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 335 rolling 30-day values (from 364 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): BONK: 365 days/year; PEPE: 365 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

BONK: 4.17% over 2025-04-12 → 2026-04-11.

PEPE: 4.17% over 2025-04-12 → 2026-04-11.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

BONK: ≈ -72.7%/yr

PEPE: ≈ -62.0%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Bonk vs Pepe: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: BONK or PEPE?

BONK showed higher volatility at 120.6% annualized, compared to 111.4% for PEPE Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does BONK provide diversification when held with PEPE?

BONK and PEPE are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.64. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for BONK vs PEPE?

Over the past year, BONK's 5% VaR was -8.97% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -12.59% (worst 19 days). PEPE's were -8.05% and -11.99% (worst 19 days).

Do BONK and PEPE crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=364), when PEPE has a 2σ down day, BONK also does 50.0% (3/6 days). In the other direction, when BONK has one, PEPE also does 60.0% (3/5 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: BONK or PEPE?

Both assets posted negative Sharpe ratios Over the past year (PEPE -0.17 vs BONK -0.19), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; PEPE was less negative.

Can BONK and PEPE be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. BONK's higher volatility (120.6%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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