Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash (BTC vs BCH) 2026: Crypto Returns, Risk & Volatility

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Returns shown in USD.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: BTC or BCH?

From October 14, 2025 to October 13, 2026: BTC led on total return (-26.2% vs BCH -49.0%). The displayed Sharpe ratios were similar (BTC -0.56 vs BCH -0.56). Both Sharpe ratios were negative; a higher value was less negative. On observed risk, BTC had lower annualized volatility (44.0% vs BCH 76.7%); BTC had a smaller maximum drawdown (-48.8% vs BCH -70.9%).

Total Return

BTC -26.2%

BCH -49.0%

Sharpe Ratio

BTC -0.56

BCH -0.56

Annualized Volatility

BTC 44.0%

BCH 76.7%

Max Drawdown

BTC -48.8%

BCH -70.9%

Metric winners: Total Return: BTC; Sharpe Ratio: tie; Annualized Volatility: BTC (less volatile); Max Drawdown: BTC (smaller drawdown).

BTC Total Return

↓ -26.2%

BCH Total Return

↓ -49.0%

Relative Performance of BTC vs BCH (Normalized to 100)

BTC BCH

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: BTC delivered a -26.2% total return, while BCH returned -49.0% over the same period. BTC outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both assets posted similar Sharpe ratios (-0.56 vs -0.56), indicating comparable risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): BCH was more volatile, with 76.7% annualized volatility, versus 44.0% for BTC.
Maximum Drawdown: BTC's maximum drawdown was -48.8%, while BCH experienced a deeper drawdown of -70.9%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), BTC's VaR was -3.55% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -5.12%; BCH's were -5.90% and -8.64%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: BTC -0.21 vs BCH 1.15. Excess kurtosis: BTC 6.66 vs BCH 9.11. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): BTC 7/12, BCH 10/11. Worst day: BTC -14.07% (2026-02-05) vs BCH -14.49% (2026-06-05). Best day: BTC +11.94% (2026-02-06) vs BCH +29.45% (2026-08-21).
Risk ratios: Sortino - BTC: -0.79 vs. BCH: -0.88 , Calmar - BTC: -0.54 vs. BCH: -0.69 , Sterling - BTC: -0.62 vs. BCH: -1.93 , Treynor - BTC: -0.21 vs. BCH: -0.34 , Ulcer Index - BTC: 33.41% vs. BCH: 42.96%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on October 14, 2025:

BTC $7,381.4 -26.2%

BCH $5,103.47 -49.0%

Difference: $2,277.93 (BTC ahead)

Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash Performance Over Time

Metric	BTC	BCH
30 Days	8.8%	24.8%
90 Days	29%	23.2%
180 Days	11.1%	-39.6%
1 Year	-26.2%	-49%

Across the available lookbacks in this table, BTC led on total return for 90 Days, 180 Days, and 1 Year, while BCH led for 30 Days.

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash Correlation

Average Correlation

strongly correlated

0.63

Current (30-day) 0.48

30-day rolling range +0.09 to +0.91

Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash were strongly correlated from October 14, 2025 to October 13, 2026. The reported average correlation of 0.63 showed strong positive linear co-movement in the observed sample.

Correlation alone does not establish portfolio risk reduction or predict selloff behavior. This comparison does not model a combined portfolio.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.48
Average (full period)	0.63
Minimum (30-day rolling)	0.09
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.91

Correlation measures linear co-movement of returns: near +1 indicates strong positive co-movement, near 0 indicates weak linear co-movement, and negative values indicate inverse co-movement. Near-zero correlation does not establish independence. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

BTC

-48.8%

BCH

-70.9%

Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -48.8% from 2025-10-26 to 2026-06-30. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Bitcoin Cash experienced its maximum drawdown of -70.9% from 2026-01-03 to 2026-06-24. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash Volatility (BTC vs BCH)

BTC Volatility

44.0%

±2.3% 1-day vol

BCH Volatility

76.7%

±4.02% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

BTC

±2.3%

BCH

±4.02%

Bitcoin's 44.0% annualized volatility translates to about ±2.3% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Bitcoin Cash's 76.7% annualized volatility translates to about ±4.02% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

BCH had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; BTC was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of BTC and BCH

Sharpe Ratio: BTC vs. BCH

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both assets posted similar Sharpe ratios (-0.56 vs -0.56), indicating comparable risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of BTC and BCH

Sortino Ratio: BTC vs. BCH

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). BTC had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: BTC 31.0% vs BCH 48.6%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of BTC and BCH

Calmar Ratio: BTC vs. BCH

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. BTC posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of BTC and BCH

Sterling Ratio: BTC vs. BCH

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). BTC posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of BTC and BCH

Treynor Ratio: BTC vs. BCH

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. BTC posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of BTC and BCH

Ulcer Index: BTC vs. BCH

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. BTC had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: BTC vs. BCH (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	BTC	BCH
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.55%	-5.90%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-5.12% (worst 19 days)	-8.64% (worst 19 days)
Skew	-0.21	1.15
Excess kurtosis	6.66	9.11
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 12	10 / 11
Worst day	-14.07% (2026-02-05)	-14.49% (2026-06-05)
Best day	+11.94% (2026-02-06)	+29.45% (2026-08-21)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=364). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: BTC vs. BCH (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both BTC and BCH crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both BTC and BCH had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	BTC	BCH
2026-01-31	-6.47%	-8.22%
2026-02-05	-14.07%	-13.87%
2026-06-02	-6.44%	-8.39%

Days when BTC had a big down day

Date (interval)	BTC	BCH
2025-11-04	-4.67%	-4.84%
2025-11-14	-4.73%	-5.56%
2025-11-20	-5.24%	-1.08%
2026-01-29	-5.14%	-5.94%
2026-01-31	-6.47%	-8.22%
2026-02-05	-14.07%	-13.87%
2026-06-02	-6.44%	-8.39%

Days when BCH had a big down day

Date (interval)	BTC	BCH
2026-01-31	-6.47%	-8.22%
2026-02-05	-14.07%	-13.87%
2026-02-23	-0.70%	-8.13%
2026-05-28	-0.93%	-10.46%
2026-06-02	-6.44%	-8.39%
2026-06-03	-4.02%	-9.53%
2026-06-05	-4.47%	-14.49%
2026-06-08	-0.32%	-9.04%
2026-08-28	-3.19%	-8.20%
2026-09-10	-1.42%	-9.72%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash (1-Year)

Metric	BTC	BCH
Total Return	-26.2%	-49.0%
Annualized Volatility	44.0%	76.7%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.56	-0.56
Sortino Ratio	-0.79	-0.88
Calmar Ratio	-0.54	-0.69
Sterling Ratio	-0.62	-1.93
Treynor Ratio	-0.21	-0.34
Ulcer Index	33.41%	42.96%
Max Drawdown	-48.8%	-70.9%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.47	0.37
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.55%	-5.90%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-5.12%	-8.64%
Skew	-0.21	1.15
Excess kurtosis	6.66	9.11
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 12	10 / 11

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-10-14 → 2026-10-13 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 335 rolling 30-day values (from 364 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): BTC: 365 days/year; BCH: 365 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

BTC: 3.81% over 2025-10-14 → 2026-10-13.

BCH: 3.81% over 2025-10-14 → 2026-10-13.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

BTC: ≈ -9.7%/yr

BCH: ≈ -29.4%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: BTC or BCH?

BCH showed higher volatility at 76.7% annualized, compared to 44.0% for BTC Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does BTC provide diversification when held with BCH?

BTC and BCH were strongly correlated from October 14, 2025 to October 13, 2026, with an average correlation of 0.63. Correlation alone does not establish portfolio risk reduction or predict selloff behavior. This comparison does not model a combined portfolio.

How bad are the worst 5% days for BTC vs BCH?

Over the past year, BTC's 5% VaR was -3.55% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -5.12% (worst 19 days). BCH's were -5.90% and -8.64% (worst 19 days).

Do BTC and BCH crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=364), when BCH has a 2σ down day, BTC also does 30.0% (3/10 days). In the other direction, when BTC has one, BCH also does 42.9% (3/7 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: BTC or BCH?

Both assets showed similar risk-adjusted performance with Sharpe ratios of -0.56 and -0.56 Over the past year.

Can BTC and BCH be combined in a portfolio?

This comparison measures the assets individually, not a combined portfolio. Portfolio risk depends on allocation weights and the joint return path; no portfolio result is calculated here. BCH had higher annualized volatility (76.7%) in this sample; the effect of an allocation is not measured here.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: BTC or BCH?

Share This Comparison of BTC vs BCH

Relative Performance of BTC vs BCH (Normalized to 100)

Trade BTC or BCH

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash Performance Over Time

Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash Correlation

Drawdown

Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash Volatility (BTC vs BCH)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of BTC and BCH

Sharpe Ratio: BTC vs. BCH

Sortino Ratio of BTC and BCH

Sortino Ratio: BTC vs. BCH

Calmar Ratio of BTC and BCH

Calmar Ratio: BTC vs. BCH

Sterling Ratio of BTC and BCH

Sterling Ratio: BTC vs. BCH

Treynor Ratio of BTC and BCH

Treynor Ratio: BTC vs. BCH

Ulcer Index of BTC and BCH

Ulcer Index: BTC vs. BCH

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: BTC vs. BCH (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: BTC vs. BCH (2σ)

Days when both BTC and BCH had a big down day (2σ)

Days when BTC had a big down day

Days when BCH had a big down day

Full Comparison of Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: BTC or BCH?

Does BTC provide diversification when held with BCH?

How bad are the worst 5% days for BTC vs BCH?

Do BTC and BCH crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: BTC or BCH?

Can BTC and BCH be combined in a portfolio?