Cite This Comparison
"Bitcoin vs iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (BTC vs IBIT): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 10, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/btc-vs-ibit Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-13 to 2026-01-10
Relative Performance of BTC vs IBIT (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: BTC delivered a -4.2% total return, while IBIT returned -3.9% over the same period. IBIT outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.01) while IBIT was positive (0.01), indicating IBIT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
- Volatility (Annualized): IBIT was more volatile, with 41.8% annualized volatility, versus 41.4% for BTC.
- Maximum Drawdown: BTC's maximum drawdown was -32.1%, while IBIT experienced a deeper drawdown of -32.7%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), BTC's VaR was -3.38% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -4.97%; IBIT's were -3.86% and -5.51%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: BTC -0.00 vs IBIT -0.16. Excess kurtosis: BTC 2.44 vs IBIT 0.28. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): BTC 10/9, IBIT 6/5. Worst day: BTC -9.03% (2025-03-04) vs IBIT -9.59% (2025-03-10). Best day: BTC +9.17% (2025-03-03) vs IBIT +7.17% (2025-04-09).
Bitcoin vs iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Correlation
Bitcoin and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.88, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.
For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both BTC and IBIT provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.96 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.88 | |
| Minimum | 0.75 | |
| Maximum | 0.97 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 13, 2025:
Difference: $31.51 (IBIT ahead)
Trade BTC or IBIT
Access these assets on trusted platforms.
Bitcoin and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF: Risk Analysis
Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.1% from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.7% from 2025-10-06 to 2025-12-18. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of BTC and IBIT
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.01) while IBIT was positive (0.01), indicating IBIT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of BTC and IBIT
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. IBIT had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: BTC 28.5% vs IBIT 25.6%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: Bitcoin vs. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
| Metric (1y) | BTC | IBIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -3.38% | -3.86% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -4.97% (worst 19 days) | -5.51% (worst 13 days) |
| Skew | -0.00 | -0.16 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.44 | 0.28 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 10 / 9 | 6 / 5 |
| Worst day | -9.03% (2025-03-04) | -9.59% (2025-03-10) |
| Best day | +9.17% (2025-03-03) | +7.17% (2025-04-09) |
Downside co-moves (2σ)
Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both BTC and IBIT had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | BTC | IBIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.21% | -9.14% |
| 2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07 | -5.57% | -7.21% |
| 2025-11-28 → 2025-12-01 | -5.13% | -5.92% |
Days when BTC had a big down day
| Date (interval) | BTC | IBIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-21 → 2025-02-24 | -4.93% | -0.95% |
| 2025-02-26 | -5.47% | -4.14% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.21% | -9.14% |
| 2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07 | -5.57% | -7.21% |
| 2025-08-22 → 2025-08-25 | -5.69% | -5.09% |
| 2025-10-10 | -6.98% | -3.70% |
| 2025-11-14 | -5.29% | -3.80% |
| 2025-11-20 | -5.16% | -3.49% |
| 2025-11-28 → 2025-12-01 | -5.13% | -5.92% |
Days when IBIT had a big down day
| Date (interval) | BTC | IBIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-25 | -2.89% | -6.33% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.21% | -9.14% |
| 2025-04-03 | +0.77% | -5.75% |
| 2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07 | -5.57% | -7.21% |
| 2025-11-04 | -4.59% | -5.53% |
| 2025-11-28 → 2025-12-01 | -5.13% | -5.92% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Bitcoin vs iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Volatility (BTC vs IBIT)
Bitcoin's annualized volatility of 41.4% means it typically moves ±2.16% on any given day.
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF's annualized volatility of 41.8% means it typically moves ±2.63% on any given day.
IBIT's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while BTC's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Bitcoin vs iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Performance Over Time
| Metric | BTC | IBIT |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | -2.4% | -2.5% |
| 90 Days | -20.1% | -22.7% |
| 180 Days | -22.9% | -23.9% |
| 1 Year | -4.5% | -3.9% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Bitcoin vs. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (1-Year)
| Metric | BTC | IBIT |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | -4.2% | -3.9% |
| Annualized Volatility | 41.4% | 41.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.01 | 0.01 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| Max Drawdown | -32.1% | -32.7% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -3.38% | -3.86% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -4.97% | -5.51% |
| Skew | -0.00 | -0.16 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.44 | 0.28 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 10 / 9 | 6 / 5 |
Bitcoin vs iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: BTC or IBIT?
IBIT showed higher volatility at 41.8% annualized, compared to 41.4% for BTC Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does BTC provide diversification when held with IBIT?
BTC and IBIT are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.88. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.
How bad are the worst 5% days for BTC vs IBIT?
Over the past year, BTC's 5% VaR was -3.38% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -4.97% (worst 19 days). IBIT's were -3.86% and -5.51% (worst 13 days).
Do BTC and IBIT crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=249), when IBIT has a 2σ down day, BTC also does 50.0% (3/6 days). In the other direction, when BTC has one, IBIT also does 33.3% (3/9 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: BTC or IBIT?
BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.01) while IBIT was positive (0.01) Over the past year, indicating IBIT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.
Can BTC and IBIT be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. IBIT's higher volatility (41.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.