Cite This Comparison
"Bitcoin vs iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (BTC vs IBIT): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2025)." Gale Finance, December 31, 2025. https://www.gale.finance/compare/btc-vs-ibit-2025 Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31
Relative Performance of BTC vs IBIT (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: BTC delivered a -8.7% total return, while IBIT returned -11.3% over the same period. BTC outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both Sharpe ratios were negative (BTC -0.11 vs IBIT -0.18), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
- Volatility (Annualized): IBIT was more volatile, with 42.1% annualized volatility, versus 42.0% for BTC.
- Maximum Drawdown: BTC's maximum drawdown was -32.1%, while IBIT experienced a deeper drawdown of -32.7%.
Bitcoin vs iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Correlation
Bitcoin and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF were weakly correlated in 2025. With a correlation of 0.15, these assets showed meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.
For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining BTC and IBIT could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.06 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.15 | |
| Minimum | -0.31 | |
| Maximum | 0.47 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 1, 2025:
Difference: $256.416 (BTC ahead)
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Bitcoin and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF: Risk Analysis
Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.1% from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.7% from 2025-10-06 to 2025-12-18. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of BTC and IBIT
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both Sharpe ratios were negative (BTC -0.11 vs IBIT -0.18), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of BTC and IBIT
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. BTC had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: BTC 29.0% vs IBIT 26.1%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Full Comparison of Bitcoin vs. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (2025)
| Metric | BTC | IBIT |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | -8.7% | -11.3% |
| Annualized Volatility | 42.0% | 42.1% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.11 | -0.18 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.16 | -0.29 |
| Max Drawdown | -32.1% | -32.7% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | N/A | N/A |
Bitcoin vs iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF: Frequently Asked Questions
Which had higher volatility: BTC or IBIT?
IBIT showed higher volatility at 42.1% annualized, compared to 42.0% for BTC During 2025. Higher volatility meant larger price swings in both directions.
Did BTC provide diversification when held with IBIT?
BTC and IBIT were weakly correlated in 2025, with an average correlation of 0.15. This weak correlation suggested meaningful diversification benefits when held together.
Which had better risk-adjusted returns: BTC or IBIT?
Both assets posted negative Sharpe ratios During 2025 (BTC -0.11 vs IBIT -0.18), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
Could BTC and IBIT have been combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing mattered. Their weak correlation could have meaningfully reduced overall portfolio variance. IBIT's higher volatility (42.1%) meant even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.