Cite This Comparison
"Bitcoin vs Marathon Digital (BTC vs MARA): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 10, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/btc-vs-mara Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-13 to 2026-01-10
Relative Performance of BTC vs MARA (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: BTC delivered a -4.2% total return, while MARA returned -40.5% over the same period. BTC outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both Sharpe ratios were negative (BTC -0.01 vs MARA -0.33), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
- Volatility (Annualized): MARA was more volatile, with 78.8% annualized volatility, versus 41.4% for BTC.
- Maximum Drawdown: BTC's maximum drawdown was -32.1%, while MARA experienced a deeper drawdown of -60.7%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), BTC's VaR was -3.38% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -4.97%; MARA's were -8.10% and -10.72%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: BTC -0.00 vs MARA 0.21. Excess kurtosis: BTC 2.44 vs MARA 1.38. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): BTC 10/9, MARA 8/9. Worst day: BTC -9.03% (2025-03-04) vs MARA -17.78% (2025-03-10). Best day: BTC +9.17% (2025-03-03) vs MARA +16.56% (2025-03-24).
Bitcoin vs Marathon Digital Correlation
Bitcoin and Marathon Digital are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.64, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.
For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both BTC and MARA provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.67 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.64 | |
| Minimum | 0.47 | |
| Maximum | 0.79 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 13, 2025:
Difference: $3,636.1 (BTC ahead)
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Bitcoin and Marathon Digital: Risk Analysis
Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.1% from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Marathon Digital experienced its maximum drawdown of -60.7% from 2025-10-15 to 2025-12-31. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of BTC and MARA
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both Sharpe ratios were negative (BTC -0.01 vs MARA -0.33), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of BTC and MARA
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. BTC had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: BTC 28.5% vs MARA 48.6%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: Bitcoin vs. Marathon Digital
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
| Metric (1y) | BTC | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -3.38% | -8.10% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -4.97% (worst 19 days) | -10.72% (worst 13 days) |
| Skew | -0.00 | 0.21 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.44 | 1.38 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 10 / 9 | 8 / 9 |
| Worst day | -9.03% (2025-03-04) | -17.78% (2025-03-10) |
| Best day | +9.17% (2025-03-03) | +16.56% (2025-03-24) |
Downside co-moves (2σ)
Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both BTC and MARA had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | BTC | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.21% | -16.29% |
Days when BTC had a big down day
| Date (interval) | BTC | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-21 → 2025-02-24 | -4.93% | -5.25% |
| 2025-02-26 | -5.47% | +0.28% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.21% | -16.29% |
| 2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07 | -5.57% | -0.35% |
| 2025-08-22 → 2025-08-25 | -5.69% | -5.46% |
| 2025-10-10 | -6.98% | -7.67% |
| 2025-11-14 | -5.29% | -6.18% |
| 2025-11-20 | -5.16% | -7.75% |
| 2025-11-28 → 2025-12-01 | -5.13% | -2.46% |
Days when MARA had a big down day
| Date (interval) | BTC | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-25 | -2.89% | -10.62% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.21% | -16.29% |
| 2025-04-03 | +0.77% | -9.58% |
| 2025-05-02 → 2025-05-05 | -2.16% | -9.60% |
| 2025-05-28 | -1.13% | -9.61% |
| 2025-07-23 | -1.11% | -11.62% |
| 2025-10-16 | -2.38% | -11.27% |
| 2025-11-13 | -1.76% | -11.31% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Bitcoin vs Marathon Digital Volatility (BTC vs MARA)
Bitcoin's annualized volatility of 41.4% means it typically moves ±2.16% on any given day.
Marathon Digital's annualized volatility of 78.8% means it typically moves ±4.96% on any given day.
MARA's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while BTC's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Bitcoin vs Marathon Digital Performance Over Time
| Metric | BTC | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | -2.4% | -14.3% |
| 90 Days | -20.1% | -45.2% |
| 180 Days | -22.9% | -46.6% |
| 1 Year | -4.5% | -40.5% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Bitcoin vs. Marathon Digital (1-Year)
| Metric | BTC | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | -4.2% | -40.5% |
| Annualized Volatility | 41.4% | 78.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.01 | -0.33 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| Max Drawdown | -32.1% | -60.7% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.46 | 0.50 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -3.38% | -8.10% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -4.97% | -10.72% |
| Skew | -0.00 | 0.21 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.44 | 1.38 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 10 / 9 | 8 / 9 |
Bitcoin vs Marathon Digital: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: BTC or MARA?
MARA showed higher volatility at 78.8% annualized, compared to 41.4% for BTC Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does BTC provide diversification when held with MARA?
BTC and MARA are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.64. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.
How bad are the worst 5% days for BTC vs MARA?
Over the past year, BTC's 5% VaR was -3.38% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -4.97% (worst 19 days). MARA's were -8.10% and -10.72% (worst 13 days).
Do BTC and MARA crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=249), when MARA has a 2σ down day, BTC also does 12.5% (1/8 days). In the other direction, when BTC has one, MARA also does 11.1% (1/9 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: BTC or MARA?
Both assets posted negative Sharpe ratios Over the past year (BTC -0.01 vs MARA -0.33), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
Can BTC and MARA be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. MARA's higher volatility (78.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.