Bitcoin was the first truly permissionless digital currency introduced to the world in 2009 by the pseudonymous developer Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin today has evolved into an entirely new asset class and a store of value. The idea of Bitcoin as a digital store of value or digital gold is mainstream today. However, to follow that vision, Bitcoin changes extremely slowly at the base level, which is appropriate given that it is worth over a trillion dollars in marketcap.
Over the years, millions of new tokens and thousands of new blockchains have been created, trying to capture a share of the market for digital assets. While most of them perished, some have survived over multiple brutal crypto cycles. Solana has emerged as a leader in several categories of smart contract based decentralized applications, most notably memecoins. Solana scaled faster than its competitor Ethereum at the base layer, although arguably being more centralized. Solana has seen immense growth in user numbers over the years, since its launch in 2020. Still, it lives in the shadow of Bitcoin.
Cite This Comparison
"Bitcoin vs Solana (BTC vs SOL): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 10, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/btc-vs-sol Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-11 to 2026-01-10
Relative Performance of BTC vs SOL (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: BTC delivered a -4.6% total return, while SOL returned -27.7% over the same period. BTC outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both assets posted similar Sharpe ratios (-0.01 vs -0.01), indicating comparable risk-adjusted performance.
- Volatility (Annualized): SOL was more volatile, with 85.3% annualized volatility, versus 41.4% for BTC.
- Maximum Drawdown: BTC's maximum drawdown was -32.1%, while SOL experienced a deeper drawdown of -59.8%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), BTC's VaR was -3.38% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -4.97%; SOL's were -6.40% and -9.74%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: BTC -0.00 vs SOL 0.00. Excess kurtosis: BTC 2.44 vs SOL 3.99. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): BTC 10/9, SOL 7/10. Worst day: BTC -9.03% (2025-03-04) vs SOL -22.33% (2025-03-04). Best day: BTC +9.17% (2025-03-03) vs SOL +21.71% (2025-03-03).
Bitcoin vs Solana Correlation
Bitcoin and Solana are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.80, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.
For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both BTC and SOL provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.85 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.80 | |
| Minimum | 0.49 | |
| Maximum | 0.94 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 11, 2025:
Difference: $2,316.75 (BTC ahead)
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Bitcoin and Solana: Risk Analysis
Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.1% from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Solana experienced its maximum drawdown of -59.8% from 2025-01-19 to 2025-04-09. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of BTC and SOL
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both assets posted similar Sharpe ratios (-0.01 vs -0.01), indicating comparable risk-adjusted performance.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of BTC and SOL
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. Both showed similar downside-adjusted performance.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: BTC 28.5% vs SOL 54.0%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: Bitcoin vs. Solana
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
| Metric (1y) | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -3.38% | -6.40% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -4.97% (worst 19 days) | -9.74% (worst 19 days) |
| Skew | -0.00 | 0.00 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.44 | 3.99 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 10 / 9 | 7 / 10 |
| Worst day | -9.03% (2025-03-04) | -22.33% (2025-03-04) |
| Best day | +9.17% (2025-03-03) | +21.71% (2025-03-03) |
Downside co-moves (2σ)
Computed on shared dates only (n=364). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both BTC and SOL had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-25 | -5.12% | -16.02% |
| 2025-03-04 | -8.63% | -20.01% |
| 2025-04-07 | -6.44% | -11.99% |
| 2025-10-11 | -6.98% | -14.00% |
Days when BTC had a big down day
| Date (interval) | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-25 | -5.12% | -16.02% |
| 2025-02-27 | -5.47% | -6.71% |
| 2025-03-04 | -8.63% | -20.01% |
| 2025-03-10 | -6.26% | -7.49% |
| 2025-04-07 | -6.44% | -11.99% |
| 2025-10-11 | -6.98% | -14.00% |
| 2025-11-05 | -4.59% | -6.28% |
| 2025-11-15 | -5.29% | -4.24% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.16% | -2.08% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.56% | -5.82% |
Days when SOL had a big down day
| Date (interval) | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-25 | -5.12% | -16.02% |
| 2025-03-04 | -8.63% | -20.01% |
| 2025-04-07 | -6.44% | -11.99% |
| 2025-08-26 | -2.83% | -9.08% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.84% | -9.18% |
| 2025-10-11 | -6.98% | -14.00% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.73% | -11.36% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Bitcoin vs Solana Volatility (BTC vs SOL)
Bitcoin's annualized volatility of 41.4% means it typically moves ±2.16% on any given day.
Solana's annualized volatility of 85.3% means it typically moves ±4.47% on any given day.
SOL's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while BTC's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Bitcoin vs Solana Performance Over Time
| Metric | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | -1.7% | -0.6% |
| 90 Days | -18.4% | -23.9% |
| 180 Days | -24.1% | -15.8% |
| 1 Year | -4.6% | -27.7% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Bitcoin vs. Solana (1-Year)
| Metric | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | -4.6% | -27.7% |
| Annualized Volatility | 41.4% | 85.3% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Max Drawdown | -32.1% | -59.8% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -3.38% | -6.40% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -4.97% | -9.74% |
| Skew | -0.00 | 0.00 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.44 | 3.99 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 10 / 9 | 7 / 10 |
Bitcoin vs Solana: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: BTC or SOL?
SOL showed higher volatility at 85.3% annualized, compared to 41.4% for BTC Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does BTC provide diversification when held with SOL?
BTC and SOL are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.80. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.
How bad are the worst 5% days for BTC vs SOL?
Over the past year, BTC's 5% VaR was -3.38% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -4.97% (worst 19 days). SOL's were -6.40% and -9.74% (worst 19 days).
Do BTC and SOL crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=364), when SOL has a 2σ down day, BTC also does 57.1% (4/7 days). In the other direction, when BTC has one, SOL also does 40.0% (4/10 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: BTC or SOL?
Both assets showed similar risk-adjusted performance with Sharpe ratios of -0.01 and -0.01 Over the past year.
Can BTC and SOL be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. SOL's higher volatility (85.3%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.