Cite This Comparison
"Bitcoin vs S&P 500 (BTC vs SPY): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2025)." Gale Finance, December 31, 2025. https://www.gale.finance/compare/btc-vs-spy-2025 Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31
Relative Performance of BTC vs SPY (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: BTC delivered a -6.3% total return, while SPY returned +18.0% over the same period. SPY outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.05) while SPY was positive (0.74), indicating SPY had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
- Volatility (Annualized): BTC was more volatile, with 42.0% annualized volatility, versus 19.5% for SPY.
- Maximum Drawdown: SPY's maximum drawdown was -18.8%, while BTC experienced a deeper drawdown of -32.1%.
Bitcoin vs S&P 500 Correlation
Bitcoin and S&P 500 were weakly correlated in 2025. With a correlation of 0.08, these assets showed meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.
For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining BTC and SPY could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.09 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.08 | |
| Minimum | -0.37 | |
| Maximum | 0.43 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 1, 2025:
Difference: $2,432.973 (SPY ahead)
Trade BTC or SPY
Access these assets on trusted platforms.
Bitcoin and S&P 500: Risk Analysis
Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.1% from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
S&P 500 experienced its maximum drawdown of -18.8% from 2025-02-19 to 2025-04-08. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of BTC and SPY
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.05) while SPY was positive (0.74), indicating SPY had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of BTC and SPY
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. SPY had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: BTC 29.0% vs SPY 15.3%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Full Comparison of Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 (2025)
| Metric | BTC | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | -6.3% | +18.0% |
| Annualized Volatility | 42.0% | 19.5% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.05 | 0.74 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.07 | 0.94 |
| Max Drawdown | -32.1% | -18.8% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | N/A | N/A |
Bitcoin vs S&P 500: Frequently Asked Questions
Which had higher volatility: BTC or SPY?
BTC showed higher volatility at 42.0% annualized, compared to 19.5% for SPY During 2025. Higher volatility meant larger price swings in both directions.
Did BTC provide diversification when held with SPY?
BTC and SPY were weakly correlated in 2025, with an average correlation of 0.08. This weak correlation suggested meaningful diversification benefits when held together.
Which had better risk-adjusted returns: BTC or SPY?
BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.05) while SPY was positive (0.74) During 2025, indicating SPY had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.
Could BTC and SPY have been combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing mattered. Their weak correlation could have meaningfully reduced overall portfolio variance. BTC's higher volatility (42.0%) meant even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.