COPX vs CPER: Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: COPX or CPER?

Over the past year, COPX looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (COPX +118.7% vs CPER +23.3%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (COPX 2.10 vs CPER 0.65). On risk, CPER was less volatile (CPER 36.7% vs COPX 39.4%), CPER had a smaller max drawdown (CPER -24.8% vs COPX -27.9%), and COPX had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of COPX -5.71% vs CPER -5.87%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: COPX or CPER?

Over the past year, COPX outperformed (+118.7% vs +23.3%) with a Sharpe ratio of 2.10.

Total Return

COPX WIN +118.7%

CPER +23.3%

Sharpe Ratio

COPX WIN 2.10

CPER 0.65

Annualized Volatility

COPX 39.4%

CPER WIN 36.7%

Max Drawdown

COPX -27.9%

CPER WIN -24.8%

Analysis period: 2025-02-18 to 2026-02-13

COPX Total Return

↑ +118.7%

CPER Total Return

↑ +23.3%

Relative Performance of COPX vs CPER (Normalized to 100)

COPX CPER

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: COPX delivered a +118.7% total return, while CPER returned +23.3% over the same period. COPX outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): COPX had a higher Sharpe (2.10 vs 0.65), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): COPX was more volatile, with 39.4% annualized volatility, versus 36.7% for CPER.
Maximum Drawdown: CPER's maximum drawdown was -24.8%, while COPX experienced a deeper drawdown of -27.9%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), COPX's VaR was -3.41% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -5.71%; CPER's were -3.10% and -5.87%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: COPX -0.43 vs CPER -2.95. Excess kurtosis: COPX 3.95 vs CPER 26.95. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): COPX 7/6, CPER 5/5. Worst day: COPX -10.25% (2025-04-04) vs CPER -19.31% (2025-07-30). Best day: COPX +11.88% (2025-04-09) vs CPER +8.41% (2025-07-08).
Risk ratios: Sortino - COPX: 3.17 vs. CPER: 0.85 , Calmar - COPX: 4.35 vs. CPER: 0.96 , Sterling - COPX: 6.74 vs. CPER: 0.84 , Treynor - COPX: 0.67 vs. CPER: 0.35 , Ulcer Index - COPX: 6.47% vs. CPER: 12.28%

Global X Copper Miners ETF vs Copper ETF Correlation

0.73 Average Correlation

Global X Copper Miners ETF and Copper ETF are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.73, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both COPX and CPER provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.88
Average (full period)	0.73
Minimum	0.35
Maximum	0.91

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 18, 2025:

COPX $21,868.21 +118.7%

CPER $12,330.1 +23.3%

Difference: $9,538.11 (COPX ahead)

Global X Copper Miners ETF and Copper ETF: Risk Analysis

Global X Copper Miners ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -27.9% from 2025-03-25 to 2025-04-08. It took 58 days to recover.

Copper ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -24.8% from 2025-07-24 to 2025-08-05. It took 153 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of COPX and CPER

COPX Sharpe Ratio

↑ 2.10

CPER Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.65

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. COPX had a higher Sharpe (2.10 vs 0.65), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of COPX and CPER

COPX Sortino Ratio

↑ 3.17

CPER Sortino Ratio

↑ 0.85

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). COPX had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: COPX 26.1% vs CPER 28.2%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of COPX and CPER

COPX Calmar Ratio

↑ 4.35

CPER Calmar Ratio

↑ 0.96

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. COPX posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of COPX and CPER

COPX Sterling Ratio

↑ 6.74

CPER Sterling Ratio

↑ 0.84

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). COPX posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of COPX and CPER

COPX Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.67

CPER Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.35

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. COPX posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of COPX and CPER

COPX Ulcer Index

6.47%

CPER Ulcer Index

12.28%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. COPX had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Global X Copper Miners ETF vs. Copper ETF

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	COPX	CPER
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.41%	-3.10%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-5.71% (worst 13 days)	-5.87% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.43	-2.95
Excess kurtosis	3.95	26.95
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 6	5 / 5
Worst day	-10.25% (2025-04-04)	-19.31% (2025-07-30)
Best day	+11.88% (2025-04-09)	+8.41% (2025-07-08)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When CPER has a big down day, COPX also does

60.0%

3 / 5 days

When COPX has a big down day, CPER also does

42.9%

3 / 7 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both COPX and CPER had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	COPX	CPER
2025-04-03	-6.91%	-4.63%
2025-04-04	-10.25%	-8.48%
2026-01-30	-10.00%	-5.89%

Days when COPX had a big down day

Date (interval)	COPX	CPER
2025-04-03	-6.91%	-4.63%
2025-04-04	-10.25%	-8.48%
2025-10-10	-5.50%	-4.42%
2025-10-21	-4.83%	-2.21%
2026-01-30	-10.00%	-5.89%
2026-02-04	-4.57%	-3.18%
2026-02-05	-6.12%	-2.89%

Days when CPER had a big down day

Date (interval)	COPX	CPER
2025-04-03	-6.91%	-4.63%
2025-04-04	-10.25%	-8.48%
2025-04-30	-3.00%	-5.43%
2025-07-30	-2.90%	-19.31%
2026-01-30	-10.00%	-5.89%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Global X Copper Miners ETF vs Copper ETF Volatility (COPX vs CPER)

COPX Volatility

39.4%

±2.48% daily

CPER Volatility

36.7%

±2.31% daily

Typical daily swing

COPX

±2.48%

CPER

±2.31%

Global X Copper Miners ETF's annualized volatility of 39.4% means it typically moves ±2.48% on any given day.

Copper ETF's annualized volatility of 36.7% means it typically moves ±2.31% on any given day.

COPX's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while CPER's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Global X Copper Miners ETF vs Copper ETF Performance Over Time

Metric	COPX	CPER
30 Days	6.7%	-5.2%
90 Days	47.1%	13.5%
180 Days	90.8%	27.4%
1 Year	N/A	N/A

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Global X Copper Miners ETF vs. Copper ETF (1-Year)

Metric	COPX	CPER
Total Return	+118.7%	+23.3%
Annualized Volatility	39.4%	36.7%
Sharpe Ratio	2.10	0.65
Sortino Ratio	3.17	0.85
Calmar Ratio	4.35	0.96
Sterling Ratio	6.74	0.84
Treynor Ratio	0.67	0.35
Ulcer Index	6.47%	12.28%
Max Drawdown	-27.9%	-24.8%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.56	0.33
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.41%	-3.10%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-5.71%	-5.87%
Skew	-0.43	-2.95
Excess kurtosis	3.95	26.95
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 6	5 / 5

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-18 → 2026-02-13 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): COPX: 252 days/year; CPER: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

COPX: 4.20% over 2025-02-18 → 2026-02-13.

CPER: 4.20% over 2025-02-18 → 2026-02-13.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

COPX: ≈ -7.8%/yr

CPER: ≈ -6.7%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Global X Copper Miners ETF vs Copper ETF: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: COPX or CPER?

COPX showed higher volatility at 39.4% annualized, compared to 36.7% for CPER Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does COPX provide diversification when held with CPER?

COPX and CPER are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.73. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for COPX vs CPER?

Over the past year, COPX's 5% VaR was -3.41% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -5.71% (worst 13 days). CPER's were -3.10% and -5.87% (worst 13 days).

Do COPX and CPER crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when CPER has a 2σ down day, COPX also does 60.0% (3/5 days). In the other direction, when COPX has one, CPER also does 42.9% (3/7 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: COPX or CPER?

COPX showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 2.10 versus CPER's 0.65 Over the past year.

Can COPX and CPER be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. COPX's higher volatility (39.4%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.