CRCL vs COIN: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: CRCL or COIN?

Over the past 6 months, CRCL looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (CRCL +192.7% vs COIN -32.4%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (CRCL 1.26 vs COIN 0.33). On risk, COIN was less volatile (COIN 75.1% vs CRCL 220.5%), COIN had a smaller max drawdown (COIN -66.4% vs CRCL -80.9%), and COIN had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of COIN -9.07% vs CRCL -13.14%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: CRCL or COIN?

Over the past year, CRCL outperformed (+192.7% vs -32.4%) with a Sharpe ratio of 1.26.

Total Return

CRCL WIN +192.7%

COIN -32.4%

Sharpe Ratio

CRCL WIN 1.26

COIN 0.33

Annualized Volatility

CRCL 220.5%

COIN WIN 75.1%

Max Drawdown

CRCL -80.9%

COIN WIN -66.4%

Analysis period: 2025-06-04 to 2026-04-01

CRCL Total Return

↑ +192.7%

COIN Total Return

↓ -32.4%

Relative Performance of CRCL vs COIN (Normalized to 100)

CRCL COIN

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: CRCL delivered a +192.7% total return, while COIN returned -32.4% over the same period. CRCL outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): CRCL had a higher Sharpe (1.26 vs 0.33), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): CRCL was more volatile, with 220.5% annualized volatility, versus 75.1% for COIN.
Maximum Drawdown: COIN's maximum drawdown was -66.4%, while CRCL experienced a deeper drawdown of -80.9%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), CRCL's VaR was -9.54% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -13.14%; COIN's were -6.70% and -9.07%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: CRCL 5.00 vs COIN 0.68. Excess kurtosis: CRCL 45.33 vs COIN 3.53. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): CRCL 1/5, COIN 3/9. Worst day: CRCL -20.11% (2026-03-24) vs COIN -16.70% (2025-08-01). Best day: CRCL +168.48% (2025-06-05) vs COIN +23.97% (2025-05-13).
Risk ratios: Sortino - CRCL: 4.12 vs. COIN: 0.53 , Calmar - CRCL: 3.31 vs. COIN: 0.02 , Sterling - CRCL: 3.26 vs. COIN: -0.12 , Treynor - CRCL: 1.21 vs. COIN: 0.12 , Ulcer Index - CRCL: 55.83% vs. COIN: 32.81%

Circle vs Coinbase Correlation

0.64 Average Correlation

Circle and Coinbase are strongly correlated over the past 6 months. With a correlation of 0.64, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both CRCL and COIN provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.75
Average (full period)	0.64
Minimum	-0.11
Maximum	0.86

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on June 4, 2025:

CRCL $29,270.97 +192.7%

COIN $6,757.42 -32.4%

Difference: $22,513.55 (CRCL ahead)

Circle and Coinbase: Risk Analysis

Circle experienced its maximum drawdown of -80.9% from 2025-06-23 to 2026-02-05. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Coinbase experienced its maximum drawdown of -66.4% from 2025-07-18 to 2026-02-12. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of CRCL and COIN

CRCL Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.26

COIN Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.33

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. CRCL had a higher Sharpe (1.26 vs 0.33), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of CRCL and COIN

CRCL Sortino Ratio

↑ 4.12

COIN Sortino Ratio

↑ 0.53

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). CRCL had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: CRCL 67.5% vs COIN 46.0%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of CRCL and COIN

CRCL Calmar Ratio

↑ 3.31

COIN Calmar Ratio

↑ 0.02

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. CRCL posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of CRCL and COIN

CRCL Sterling Ratio

↑ 3.26

COIN Sterling Ratio

↓ -0.12

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). CRCL posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of CRCL and COIN

CRCL Treynor Ratio

↑ 1.21

COIN Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.12

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. CRCL posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of CRCL and COIN

CRCL Ulcer Index

55.83%

COIN Ulcer Index

32.81%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. COIN had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Circle vs. Coinbase

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	CRCL	COIN
5% VaR (daily log return)	-9.54%	-6.70%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-13.14% (worst 11 days)	-9.07% (worst 13 days)
Skew	5.00	0.68
Excess kurtosis	45.33	3.53
2σ tail days (down / up)	1 / 5	3 / 9
Worst day	-20.11% (2026-03-24)	-16.70% (2025-08-01)
Best day	+168.48% (2025-06-05)	+23.97% (2025-05-13)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=207). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When COIN has a big down day, CRCL also does

33.3%

1 / 3 days

When CRCL has a big down day, COIN also does

100.0%

1 / 1 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both CRCL and COIN had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	CRCL	COIN
2026-03-24	-20.11%	-9.76%

Days when CRCL had a big down day

Date (interval)	CRCL	COIN
2026-03-24	-20.11%	-9.76%

Days when COIN had a big down day

Date (interval)	CRCL	COIN
2025-08-01	-8.40%	-16.70%
2026-02-05	-8.76%	-13.34%
2026-03-24	-20.11%	-9.76%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Circle vs Coinbase Volatility (CRCL vs COIN)

CRCL Volatility

220.5%

±13.89% daily

COIN Volatility

75.1%

±4.73% daily

Typical daily swing

CRCL

±13.89%

COIN

±4.73%

Circle's annualized volatility of 220.5% means it typically moves ±13.89% on any given day.

Coinbase's annualized volatility of 75.1% means it typically moves ±4.73% on any given day.

CRCL's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while COIN's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Circle vs Coinbase Performance Over Time

Metric	CRCL	COIN
30 Days	-5.6%	-6.6%
90 Days	14.4%	-23.5%
180 Days	-37.8%	-54.5%
1 Year	N/A	1.3%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Circle vs. Coinbase (1-Year)

Metric	CRCL	COIN
Total Return	+192.7%	-32.4%
Annualized Volatility	220.5%	75.1%
Sharpe Ratio	1.26	0.33
Sortino Ratio	4.12	0.53
Calmar Ratio	3.31	0.02
Sterling Ratio	3.26	-0.12
Treynor Ratio	1.21	0.12
Ulcer Index	55.83%	32.81%
Max Drawdown	-80.9%	-66.4%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.45	0.62
5% VaR (daily log return)	-9.54%	-6.70%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-13.14%	-9.07%
Skew	5.00	0.68
Excess kurtosis	45.33	3.53
2σ tail days (down / up)	1 / 5	3 / 9

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-06-04 → 2026-04-01 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 178 rolling 30-day values (from 207 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): CRCL: 252 days/year; COIN: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

CRCL: 4.13% over 2025-06-04 → 2026-04-01.

COIN: 4.18% over 2025-04-03 → 2026-04-01.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

CRCL: ≈ -243.1%/yr

COIN: ≈ -28.2%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Circle vs Coinbase: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: CRCL or COIN?

CRCL showed higher volatility at 220.5% annualized, compared to 75.1% for COIN Over the past 6 months. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does CRCL provide diversification when held with COIN?

CRCL and COIN are strongly correlated over the past 6 months, with an average correlation of 0.64. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for CRCL vs COIN?

Over the past 6 months, CRCL's 5% VaR was -9.54% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -13.14% (worst 11 days). COIN's were -6.70% and -9.07% (worst 13 days).

Do CRCL and COIN crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=207), when COIN has a 2σ down day, CRCL also does 33.3% (1/3 days). In the other direction, when CRCL has one, COIN also does 100.0% (1/1 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: CRCL or COIN?

CRCL showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.26 versus COIN's 0.33 Over the past 6 months.

Can CRCL and COIN be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. CRCL's higher volatility (220.5%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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