Cite This Comparison
"Dogecoin vs Bitcoin (DOGE vs BTC): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 24, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/doge-vs-btc/ Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-25 to 2026-01-24
Relative Performance of DOGE vs BTC (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: DOGE delivered a -65.3% total return, while BTC returned -15.5% over the same period. BTC outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both Sharpe ratios were negative (BTC -0.31 vs DOGE -0.75), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
- Volatility (Annualized): DOGE was more volatile, with 91.6% annualized volatility, versus 41.2% for BTC.
- Maximum Drawdown: BTC's maximum drawdown was -32.1%, while DOGE experienced a deeper drawdown of -66.9%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), DOGE's VaR was -7.31% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -11.35%; BTC's were -3.65% and -5.04%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: DOGE -0.22 vs BTC -0.01. Excess kurtosis: DOGE 3.09 vs BTC 2.51. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): DOGE 10/10, BTC 11/10. Worst day: DOGE -21.92% (2025-10-10) vs BTC -8.63% (2025-03-03). Best day: DOGE +20.91% (2025-05-10) vs BTC +9.60% (2025-03-02).
- Risk ratios: Sortino - DOGE: -1.05 vs. BTC: -0.43 , Calmar - DOGE: -0.98 vs. BTC: -0.48 , Sterling - DOGE: -1.04 vs. BTC: -0.83 , Treynor - DOGE: -0.50 vs. BTC: -0.20 , Ulcer Index - DOGE: 46.70% vs. BTC: 15.87%
Dogecoin vs Bitcoin Correlation
Dogecoin and Bitcoin are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.80, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.
For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both DOGE and BTC provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.73 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.80 | |
| Minimum | 0.32 | |
| Maximum | 0.94 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 25, 2025:
Difference: $4,983.77 (BTC ahead)
Trade DOGE or BTC
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Dogecoin and Bitcoin: Risk Analysis
Dogecoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -66.9% from 2025-01-25 to 2025-12-31. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.1% from 2025-10-06 to 2025-11-22. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of DOGE and BTC
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both Sharpe ratios were negative (BTC -0.31 vs DOGE -0.75), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of DOGE and BTC
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). BTC had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: DOGE 64.9% vs BTC 29.2%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Calmar Ratio of DOGE and BTC
Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. BTC posted the higher Calmar ratio.
Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.
Sterling Ratio of DOGE and BTC
Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). BTC posted the higher Sterling ratio.
Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.
Treynor Ratio of DOGE and BTC
Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. BTC posted the higher Treynor ratio.
Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.
Ulcer Index of DOGE and BTC
Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. BTC had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).
Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Dogecoin vs. Bitcoin
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.
| Metric (1-Year) | DOGE | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -7.31% | -3.65% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -11.35% (worst 19 days) | -5.04% (worst 19 days) |
| Skew | -0.22 | -0.01 |
| Excess kurtosis | 3.09 | 2.51 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 10 / 10 | 11 / 10 |
| Worst day | -21.92% (2025-10-10) | -8.63% (2025-03-03) |
| Best day | +20.91% (2025-05-10) | +9.60% (2025-03-02) |
Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year
Computed on shared dates only (n=364). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both DOGE and BTC had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | DOGE | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-24 | -13.54% | -5.12% |
| 2025-03-03 | -16.94% | -8.63% |
| 2025-03-09 | -12.60% | -6.26% |
| 2025-04-06 | -12.06% | -6.44% |
| 2025-10-10 | -21.92% | -6.98% |
Days when DOGE had a big down day
| Date (interval) | DOGE | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-02 | -14.05% | -3.09% |
| 2025-02-24 | -13.54% | -5.12% |
| 2025-03-03 | -16.94% | -8.63% |
| 2025-03-09 | -12.60% | -6.26% |
| 2025-04-06 | -12.06% | -6.44% |
| 2025-05-30 | -10.61% | -1.64% |
| 2025-07-23 | -10.75% | -1.11% |
| 2025-08-25 | -9.48% | -2.83% |
| 2025-10-10 | -21.92% | -6.98% |
| 2025-11-03 | -10.35% | -3.73% |
Days when BTC had a big down day
| Date (interval) | DOGE | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-24 | -13.54% | -5.12% |
| 2025-02-26 | -4.14% | -5.47% |
| 2025-03-03 | -16.94% | -8.63% |
| 2025-03-09 | -12.60% | -6.26% |
| 2025-04-06 | -12.06% | -6.44% |
| 2025-10-10 | -21.92% | -6.98% |
| 2025-11-04 | -2.52% | -4.59% |
| 2025-11-14 | -3.85% | -5.29% |
| 2025-11-20 | -3.12% | -5.16% |
| 2025-12-01 | -7.44% | -4.56% |
| 2026-01-19 | -4.13% | -4.56% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Dogecoin vs Bitcoin Volatility (DOGE vs BTC)
Dogecoin's annualized volatility of 91.6% means it typically moves ±4.79% on any given day.
Bitcoin's annualized volatility of 41.2% means it typically moves ±2.16% on any given day.
DOGE's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while BTC's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Dogecoin vs Bitcoin Performance Over Time
| Metric | DOGE | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | -0.5% | 1.5% |
| 90 Days | -40.3% | -22.6% |
| 180 Days | -45.4% | -24.9% |
| 1 Year | -65.3% | -15.5% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Dogecoin vs. Bitcoin (1-Year)
| Metric | DOGE | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | -65.3% | -15.5% |
| Annualized Volatility | 91.6% | 41.2% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.75 | -0.31 |
| Sortino Ratio | -1.05 | -0.43 |
| Calmar Ratio | -0.98 | -0.48 |
| Sterling Ratio | -1.04 | -0.83 |
| Treynor Ratio | -0.50 | -0.20 |
| Ulcer Index | 46.70% | 15.87% |
| Max Drawdown | -66.9% | -32.1% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -7.31% | -3.65% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -11.35% | -5.04% |
| Skew | -0.22 | -0.01 |
| Excess kurtosis | 3.09 | 2.51 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 10 / 10 | 11 / 10 |
Dogecoin vs Bitcoin: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: DOGE or BTC?
DOGE showed higher volatility at 91.6% annualized, compared to 41.2% for BTC Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does DOGE provide diversification when held with BTC?
DOGE and BTC are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.80. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.
How bad are the worst 5% days for DOGE vs BTC?
Over the past year, DOGE's 5% VaR was -7.31% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -11.35% (worst 19 days). BTC's were -3.65% and -5.04% (worst 19 days).
Do DOGE and BTC crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=364), when BTC has a 2σ down day, DOGE also does 45.5% (5/11 days). In the other direction, when DOGE has one, BTC also does 50.0% (5/10 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: DOGE or BTC?
Both assets posted negative Sharpe ratios Over the past year (BTC -0.31 vs DOGE -0.75), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
Can DOGE and BTC be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. DOGE's higher volatility (91.6%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.