DOGE vs XRP: Crypto Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: DOGE or XRP?

Over the past year, XRP looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (XRP -33.9% vs DOGE -50.6%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (XRP -0.13 vs DOGE -0.33). On risk, XRP was less volatile (XRP 84.5% vs DOGE 93.7%), XRP had a smaller max drawdown (XRP -65.6% vs DOGE -69.0%), and XRP had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of XRP -9.35% vs DOGE -11.26%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: DOGE or XRP?

Over the past year, XRP outperformed (-50.6% vs -33.9%) with a Sharpe ratio of -0.13.

Total Return

DOGE -50.6%

XRP WIN -33.9%

Sharpe Ratio

DOGE -0.33

XRP WIN -0.13

Annualized Volatility

DOGE 93.7%

XRP WIN 84.5%

Max Drawdown

DOGE -69.0%

XRP WIN -65.6%

Analysis period: 2025-02-26 to 2026-02-25

DOGE Total Return

↓ -50.6%

XRP Total Return

↓ -33.9%

Relative Performance of DOGE vs XRP (Normalized to 100)

DOGE XRP

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: DOGE delivered a -50.6% total return, while XRP returned -33.9% over the same period. XRP outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both Sharpe ratios were negative (XRP -0.13 vs DOGE -0.33), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; XRP was less negative.
Volatility (Annualized): DOGE was more volatile, with 93.7% annualized volatility, versus 84.5% for XRP.
Maximum Drawdown: XRP's maximum drawdown was -65.6%, while DOGE experienced a deeper drawdown of -69.0%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), DOGE's VaR was -7.36% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -11.26%; XRP's were -5.78% and -9.35%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: DOGE -0.09 vs XRP 0.61. Excess kurtosis: DOGE 2.91 vs XRP 9.58. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): DOGE 9/13, XRP 7/7. Worst day: DOGE -21.92% (2025-10-10) vs XRP -19.10% (2026-02-04). Best day: DOGE +20.91% (2025-05-10) vs XRP +34.28% (2025-03-02).
Risk ratios: Sortino - DOGE: -0.49 vs. XRP: -0.20 , Calmar - DOGE: -0.73 vs. XRP: -0.52 , Sterling - DOGE: -1.23 vs. XRP: -0.73 , Treynor - DOGE: -0.34 vs. XRP: -0.44 , Ulcer Index - DOGE: 36.77% vs. XRP: 31.99%

Dogecoin vs Ripple Correlation

0.81 Average Correlation

Dogecoin and Ripple are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.81, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both DOGE and XRP provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.81
Average (full period)	0.81
Minimum	0.39
Maximum	0.95

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 26, 2025:

DOGE $4,940.88 -50.6%

XRP $6,608.75 -33.9%

Difference: $1,667.87 (XRP ahead)

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Dogecoin and Ripple: Risk Analysis

Dogecoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -69% from 2025-09-13 to 2026-02-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Ripple experienced its maximum drawdown of -65.6% from 2025-07-21 to 2026-02-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of DOGE and XRP

DOGE Sharpe Ratio

↓ -0.33

XRP Sharpe Ratio

↓ -0.13

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both Sharpe ratios were negative (XRP -0.13 vs DOGE -0.33), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; XRP was less negative.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of DOGE and XRP

DOGE Sortino Ratio

↓ -0.49

XRP Sortino Ratio

↓ -0.20

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). XRP had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: DOGE 64.2% vs XRP 54.2%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of DOGE and XRP

DOGE Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.73

XRP Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.52

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. XRP posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of DOGE and XRP

DOGE Sterling Ratio

↓ -1.23

XRP Sterling Ratio

↓ -0.73

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). XRP posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of DOGE and XRP

DOGE Treynor Ratio

↓ -0.34

XRP Treynor Ratio

↓ -0.44

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. DOGE posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of DOGE and XRP

DOGE Ulcer Index

36.77%

XRP Ulcer Index

31.99%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. XRP had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Dogecoin vs. Ripple

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	DOGE	XRP
5% VaR (daily log return)	-7.36%	-5.78%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-11.26% (worst 19 days)	-9.35% (worst 19 days)
Skew	-0.09	0.61
Excess kurtosis	2.91	9.58
2σ tail days (down / up)	9 / 13	7 / 7
Worst day	-21.92% (2025-10-10)	-19.10% (2026-02-04)
Best day	+20.91% (2025-05-10)	+34.28% (2025-03-02)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=364). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When XRP has a big down day, DOGE also does

85.7%

6 / 7 days

When DOGE has a big down day, XRP also does

66.7%

6 / 9 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both DOGE and XRP had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	DOGE	XRP
2025-03-03	-16.94%	-18.75%
2025-04-06	-12.06%	-10.49%
2025-07-23	-10.75%	-10.50%
2025-10-10	-21.92%	-15.02%
2025-11-03	-10.35%	-8.71%
2026-02-04	-12.85%	-19.10%

Days when DOGE had a big down day

Date (interval)	DOGE	XRP
2025-03-03	-16.94%	-18.75%
2025-03-09	-12.60%	-8.09%
2025-04-06	-12.06%	-10.49%
2025-05-30	-10.61%	-4.81%
2025-07-23	-10.75%	-10.50%
2025-10-10	-21.92%	-15.02%
2025-11-03	-10.35%	-8.71%
2026-01-30	-11.88%	-6.65%
2026-02-04	-12.85%	-19.10%

Days when XRP had a big down day

Date (interval)	DOGE	XRP
2025-03-03	-16.94%	-18.75%
2025-03-07	-1.79%	-8.42%
2025-04-06	-12.06%	-10.49%
2025-07-23	-10.75%	-10.50%
2025-10-10	-21.92%	-15.02%
2025-11-03	-10.35%	-8.71%
2026-02-04	-12.85%	-19.10%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Dogecoin vs Ripple Volatility (DOGE vs XRP)

DOGE Volatility

93.7%

±4.9% daily

XRP Volatility

84.5%

±4.42% daily

Typical daily swing

DOGE

±4.9%

XRP

±4.42%

Dogecoin's annualized volatility of 93.7% means it typically moves ±4.9% on any given day.

Ripple's annualized volatility of 84.5% means it typically moves ±4.42% on any given day.

DOGE's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while XRP's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Dogecoin vs Ripple Performance Over Time

Metric	DOGE	XRP
30 Days	-20.7%	-24.5%
90 Days	-34.5%	-34.3%
180 Days	-53.3%	-48.7%
1 Year	-50.6%	-33.9%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Dogecoin vs. Ripple (1-Year)

Metric	DOGE	XRP
Total Return	-50.6%	-33.9%
Annualized Volatility	93.7%	84.5%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.33	-0.13
Sortino Ratio	-0.49	-0.20
Calmar Ratio	-0.73	-0.52
Sterling Ratio	-1.23	-0.73
Treynor Ratio	-0.34	-0.44
Ulcer Index	36.77%	31.99%
Max Drawdown	-69.0%	-65.6%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.42	0.45
5% VaR (daily log return)	-7.36%	-5.78%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-11.26%	-9.35%
Skew	-0.09	0.61
Excess kurtosis	2.91	9.58
2σ tail days (down / up)	9 / 13	7 / 7

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-26 → 2026-02-25 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 335 rolling 30-day values (from 364 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): DOGE: 365 days/year; XRP: 365 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

DOGE: 4.20% over 2025-02-26 → 2026-02-25.

XRP: 4.20% over 2025-02-26 → 2026-02-25.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

DOGE: ≈ -43.9%/yr

XRP: ≈ -35.7%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Dogecoin vs Ripple: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: DOGE or XRP?

DOGE showed higher volatility at 93.7% annualized, compared to 84.5% for XRP Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does DOGE provide diversification when held with XRP?

DOGE and XRP are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.81. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for DOGE vs XRP?

Over the past year, DOGE's 5% VaR was -7.36% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -11.26% (worst 19 days). XRP's were -5.78% and -9.35% (worst 19 days).

Do DOGE and XRP crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=364), when XRP has a 2σ down day, DOGE also does 85.7% (6/7 days). In the other direction, when DOGE has one, XRP also does 66.7% (6/9 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: DOGE or XRP?

Both assets posted negative Sharpe ratios Over the past year (XRP -0.13 vs DOGE -0.33), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; XRP was less negative.

Can DOGE and XRP be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. DOGE's higher volatility (93.7%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.