Ethereum is the closest proxy in the digital asset industry to the NASDAQ with its reliance on evolving technology.
Cite This Comparison
"Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100 (ETH vs QQQ): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 10, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/eth-vs-qqq Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-13 to 2026-01-10
Relative Performance of ETH vs QQQ (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: ETH delivered a -5.6% total return, while QQQ returned +24.6% over the same period. QQQ outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): QQQ had a higher Sharpe (0.88 vs 0.23), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
- Volatility (Annualized): ETH was more volatile, with 74.9% annualized volatility, versus 23.5% for QQQ.
- Maximum Drawdown: QQQ's maximum drawdown was -22.8%, while ETH experienced a deeper drawdown of -57.7%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), ETH's VaR was -5.85% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -8.76%; QQQ's were -2.21% and -3.47%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: ETH 0.22 vs QQQ 0.93. Excess kurtosis: ETH 3.37 vs QQQ 15.33. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): ETH 10/9, QQQ 7/2. Worst day: ETH -15.86% (2025-03-04) vs QQQ -6.41% (2025-04-04). Best day: ETH +19.38% (2025-05-09) vs QQQ +11.34% (2025-04-09).
Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100 Correlation
Ethereum and Nasdaq 100 are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.54, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.
For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.45 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.54 | |
| Minimum | 0.15 | |
| Maximum | 0.78 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 13, 2025:
Difference: $3,016.19 (QQQ ahead)
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Ethereum and Nasdaq 100: Risk Analysis
Ethereum experienced its maximum drawdown of -57.7% from 2025-01-18 to 2025-04-09. It took 100 days to recover.
Nasdaq 100 experienced its maximum drawdown of -22.8% from 2025-02-19 to 2025-04-08. It took 77 days to recover.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of ETH and QQQ
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. QQQ had a higher Sharpe (0.88 vs 0.23), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of ETH and QQQ
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. QQQ had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: ETH 48.7% vs QQQ 18.1%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: Ethereum vs. Nasdaq 100
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
| Metric (1y) | ETH | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -5.85% | -2.21% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -8.76% (worst 19 days) | -3.47% (worst 13 days) |
| Skew | 0.22 | 0.93 |
| Excess kurtosis | 3.37 | 15.33 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 10 / 9 | 7 / 2 |
| Worst day | -15.86% (2025-03-04) | -6.41% (2025-04-04) |
| Best day | +19.38% (2025-05-09) | +11.34% (2025-04-09) |
Downside co-moves (2σ)
Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both ETH and QQQ had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | ETH | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -12.22% | -3.88% |
| 2025-10-10 | -12.20% | -3.47% |
Days when ETH had a big down day
| Date (interval) | ETH | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-31 → 2025-02-03 | -12.70% | -0.80% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -12.22% | -3.88% |
| 2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07 | -14.25% | +0.24% |
| 2025-08-22 → 2025-08-25 | -9.27% | -0.29% |
| 2025-10-10 | -12.20% | -3.47% |
Days when QQQ had a big down day
| Date (interval) | ETH | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 → 2025-01-27 | -4.18% | -2.91% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -12.22% | -3.88% |
| 2025-04-03 | +1.25% | -5.35% |
| 2025-04-04 | -0.21% | -6.21% |
| 2025-04-10 | -8.34% | -4.25% |
| 2025-04-16 | -0.64% | -3.02% |
| 2025-10-10 | -12.20% | -3.47% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100 Volatility (ETH vs QQQ)
Ethereum's annualized volatility of 74.9% means it typically moves ±3.92% on any given day.
Nasdaq 100's annualized volatility of 23.5% means it typically moves ±1.48% on any given day.
ETH's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while QQQ's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100 Performance Over Time
| Metric | ETH | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | -7.2% | 0% |
| 90 Days | -19.7% | 6.4% |
| 180 Days | 4.7% | 13.3% |
| 1 Year | -5.7% | 24.6% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Ethereum vs. Nasdaq 100 (1-Year)
| Metric | ETH | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | -5.6% | +24.6% |
| Annualized Volatility | 74.9% | 23.5% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.23 | 0.88 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.36 | 1.14 |
| Max Drawdown | -57.7% | -22.8% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.51 | 0.96 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -5.85% | -2.21% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -8.76% | -3.47% |
| Skew | 0.22 | 0.93 |
| Excess kurtosis | 3.37 | 15.33 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 10 / 9 | 7 / 2 |
Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: ETH or QQQ?
ETH showed higher volatility at 74.9% annualized, compared to 23.5% for QQQ Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does ETH provide diversification when held with QQQ?
ETH and QQQ are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.54. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.
How bad are the worst 5% days for ETH vs QQQ?
Over the past year, ETH's 5% VaR was -5.85% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -8.76% (worst 19 days). QQQ's were -2.21% and -3.47% (worst 13 days).
Do ETH and QQQ crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=249), when QQQ has a 2σ down day, ETH also does 28.6% (2/7 days). In the other direction, when ETH has one, QQQ also does 40.0% (2/5 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: ETH or QQQ?
QQQ showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 0.88 versus ETH's 0.23 Over the past year.
Can ETH and QQQ be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. ETH's higher volatility (74.9%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.