ETH vs SOL: Crypto Returns, Risk & Volatility (2025)

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Analysis period: 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31

ETH Total Return

↓ -11.0%

SOL Total Return

↓ -34.1%

Relative Performance of ETH vs SOL (Normalized to 100)

ETH SOL

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: ETH delivered a -11.0% total return, while SOL returned -34.1% over the same period. ETH outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): SOL had a negative Sharpe (-0.11) while ETH was positive (0.16), indicating ETH had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): SOL was more volatile, with 86.1% annualized volatility, versus 75.4% for ETH.
Maximum Drawdown: SOL's maximum drawdown was -59.8%, while ETH experienced a deeper drawdown of -60.1%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), ETH's VaR was -5.95% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -8.91%; SOL's were -6.48% and -9.80%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: ETH 0.20 vs SOL 0.01. Excess kurtosis: ETH 3.27 vs SOL 3.78. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): ETH 11/9, SOL 7/10. Worst day: ETH -14.66% (2025-03-03) vs SOL -20.01% (2025-03-03). Best day: ETH +21.39% (2025-05-08) vs SOL +24.25% (2025-03-02).
Risk ratios: Sortino - ETH: 0.24 vs. SOL: -0.16 , Calmar - ETH: N/A vs. SOL: N/A , Sterling - ETH: N/A vs. SOL: N/A , Treynor - ETH: N/A vs. SOL: N/A , Ulcer Index - ETH: N/A vs. SOL: N/A

Ethereum vs Solana Correlation

0.82 Average Correlation

Ethereum and Solana were strongly correlated in 2025. With a correlation of 0.82, these assets tended to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both ETH and SOL provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.90
Average (full period)	0.82
Minimum	0.16
Maximum	0.97

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 1, 2025:

ETH $8,901.396 -11.0%

SOL $6,590.391 -34.1%

Difference: $2,311.005 (ETH ahead)

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Ethereum and Solana: Risk Analysis

Ethereum experienced its maximum drawdown of -60.1% from 2025-01-06 to 2025-04-08. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Solana experienced its maximum drawdown of -59.8% from 2025-01-18 to 2025-04-08. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of ETH and SOL

ETH Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.16

SOL Sharpe Ratio

↓ -0.11

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. SOL had a negative Sharpe (-0.11) while ETH was positive (0.16), indicating ETH had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of ETH and SOL

ETH Sortino Ratio

↑ 0.24

SOL Sortino Ratio

↓ -0.16

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). ETH had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: ETH 50.4% vs SOL 58.6%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (2025): Ethereum vs. Solana

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (2025)	ETH	SOL
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.95%	-6.48%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-8.91% (worst 19 days)	-9.80% (worst 19 days)
Skew	0.20	0.01
Excess kurtosis	3.27	3.78
2σ tail days (down / up)	11 / 9	7 / 10
Worst day	-14.66% (2025-03-03)	-20.01% (2025-03-03)
Best day	+21.39% (2025-05-08)	+24.25% (2025-03-02)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 2025

Computed on shared dates only (n=364). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When SOL has a big down day, ETH also does

85.7%

6 / 7 days

When ETH has a big down day, SOL also does

54.5%

6 / 11 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both ETH and SOL had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	ETH	SOL
2025-02-24	-11.46%	-16.02%
2025-03-03	-14.66%	-20.01%
2025-04-06	-13.00%	-11.99%
2025-08-25	-8.30%	-9.08%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-14.00%
2025-11-03	-7.91%	-11.36%

Days when ETH had a big down day

Date (interval)	ETH	SOL
2025-01-07	-8.33%	-7.29%
2025-02-02	-8.39%	-5.66%
2025-02-24	-11.46%	-16.02%
2025-03-03	-14.66%	-20.01%
2025-03-09	-8.31%	-7.49%
2025-04-06	-13.00%	-11.99%
2025-04-10	-8.34%	-5.11%
2025-08-25	-8.30%	-9.08%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-14.00%
2025-11-03	-7.91%	-11.36%
2025-11-04	-8.44%	-6.28%

Days when SOL had a big down day

Date (interval)	ETH	SOL
2025-02-24	-11.46%	-16.02%
2025-03-03	-14.66%	-20.01%
2025-04-06	-13.00%	-11.99%
2025-08-25	-8.30%	-9.08%
2025-09-25	-6.88%	-9.18%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-14.00%
2025-11-03	-7.91%	-11.36%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Ethereum vs. Solana (2025)

Metric	ETH	SOL
Total Return	-11.0%	-34.1%
Annualized Volatility	75.4%	86.1%
Sharpe Ratio	0.16	-0.11
Sortino Ratio	0.24	-0.16
Calmar Ratio	N/A	N/A
Sterling Ratio	N/A	N/A
Treynor Ratio	N/A	N/A
Ulcer Index	N/A	N/A
Max Drawdown	-60.1%	-59.8%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	N/A	N/A
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.95%	-6.48%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-8.91%	-9.80%
Skew	0.20	0.01
Excess kurtosis	3.27	3.78
2σ tail days (down / up)	11 / 9	7 / 10

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-01-01 → 2025-12-31 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): N/A
Annualization (days/year): ETH: 365 days/year; SOL: 365 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

ETH: 4.22%.

SOL: 4.22%.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

ETH: ≈ -28.4%/yr

SOL: ≈ -37.1%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Ethereum vs Solana: Frequently Asked Questions

Which had higher volatility: ETH or SOL?

SOL showed higher volatility at 86.1% annualized, compared to 75.4% for ETH During 2025. Higher volatility meant larger price swings in both directions.

Did ETH provide diversification when held with SOL?

ETH and SOL were strongly correlated in 2025, with an average correlation of 0.82. This strong correlation limited diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for ETH vs SOL?

During 2025, ETH's 5% VaR was -5.95% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -8.91% (worst 19 days). SOL's were -6.48% and -9.80% (worst 19 days).

Do ETH and SOL crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=364), when SOL has a 2σ down day, ETH also does 85.7% (6/7 days). In the other direction, when ETH has one, SOL also does 54.5% (6/11 days).

Which had better risk-adjusted returns: ETH or SOL?

SOL had a negative Sharpe (-0.11) while ETH was positive (0.16) During 2025, indicating ETH had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Could ETH and SOL have been combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing mattered. Their strong correlation provided limited risk reduction since they tended to move together. SOL's higher volatility (86.1%) meant even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.