GE Vernova vs Vistra Corp (GEV vs VST) 2026: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: GEV or VST?

Over the past year, GEV looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (GEV +148.1% vs VST -4.7%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (GEV 2.06 vs VST 0.05). On risk, VST was less volatile (VST 47.8% vs GEV 48.3%), GEV had a smaller max drawdown (GEV -17.5% vs VST -34.5%), and GEV had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of GEV -5.71% vs VST -6.96%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: GEV or VST?

Over the past year, GEV outperformed VST. GEV returned +148.1% compared with VST’s -4.7%. GEV had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.06 versus VST’s 0.05. VST was less volatile than GEV, but GEV had a smaller max drawdown than VST.

Total Return

GEV +148.1%

VST -4.7%

Sharpe Ratio

GEV 2.06

VST 0.05

Annualized Volatility

GEV 48.3%

VST 47.8%

Max Drawdown

GEV -17.5%

VST -34.5%

Metric winners: Total Return: GEV; Sharpe Ratio: GEV; Annualized Volatility: VST (less volatile); Max Drawdown: GEV (smaller drawdown).

GEV Total Return

↑ +148.1%

VST Total Return

↓ -4.7%

Relative Performance of GEV vs VST (Normalized to 100)

GEV VST

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: GEV delivered a +148.1% total return, while VST returned -4.7% over the same period. GEV outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): GEV had a higher Sharpe (2.06 vs 0.05), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): GEV was more volatile, with 48.3% annualized volatility, versus 47.8% for VST.
Maximum Drawdown: GEV's maximum drawdown was -17.5%, while VST experienced a deeper drawdown of -34.5%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), GEV's VaR was -4.46% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -5.71%; VST's were -4.97% and -6.96%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: GEV 0.73 vs VST -0.41. Excess kurtosis: GEV 4.29 vs VST 1.54. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): GEV 5/6, VST 7/4. Worst day: GEV -10.50% (2025-12-17) vs VST -12.62% (2026-03-20). Best day: GEV +15.62% (2025-12-10) vs VST +10.47% (2026-01-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - GEV: 3.56 vs. VST: 0.07 , Calmar - GEV: 8.54 vs. VST: -0.14 , Sterling - GEV: 10.66 vs. VST: -0.37 , Treynor - GEV: 0.55 vs. VST: 0.02 , Ulcer Index - GEV: 7.10% vs. VST: 18.64%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on May 14, 2025:

GEV $24,805.77 +148.1%

VST $9,527.96 -4.7%

Difference: $15,277.81 (GEV ahead)

GE Vernova vs Vistra Corp Performance Over Time

Metric	GEV	VST
30 Days	8.1%	-5.1%
90 Days	30.1%	-8.3%
180 Days	92.2%	-14.3%
1 Year	148.1%	-4.7%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

GE Vernova vs Vistra Corp Correlation

Average Correlation

moderately correlated

0.45

Current (30-day) 0.32

30-day rolling range -0.07 to +0.73

GE Vernova and Vistra Corp are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.45, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.32
Average (full period)	0.45
Minimum (30-day rolling)	-0.07
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.73

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

GEV

-17.5%

VST

-34.5%

GE Vernova experienced its maximum drawdown of -17.5% from 2025-08-06 to 2025-11-04. It took 36 days to recover.

Vistra Corp experienced its maximum drawdown of -34.5% from 2025-09-22 to 2026-02-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

GE Vernova vs Vistra Corp Volatility (GEV vs VST)

GEV Volatility

48.3%

±3.04% 1-day vol

VST Volatility

47.8%

±3.01% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

GEV

±3.04%

VST

±3.01%

GE Vernova's 48.3% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.04% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Vistra Corp's 47.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.01% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

GEV had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; VST was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of GEV and VST

Sharpe Ratio: GEV vs. VST

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. GEV had a higher Sharpe (2.06 vs 0.05), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of GEV and VST

Sortino Ratio: GEV vs. VST

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). GEV had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: GEV 27.9% vs VST 34.5%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of GEV and VST

Calmar Ratio: GEV vs. VST

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. GEV posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of GEV and VST

Sterling Ratio: GEV vs. VST

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). GEV posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of GEV and VST

Treynor Ratio: GEV vs. VST

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. GEV posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of GEV and VST

Ulcer Index: GEV vs. VST

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. GEV had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): GE Vernova vs. Vistra Corp

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: GEV vs. VST (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	GEV	VST
5% VaR (daily log return)	-4.46%	-4.97%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-5.71% (worst 13 days)	-6.96% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.73	-0.41
Excess kurtosis	4.29	1.54
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 6	7 / 4
Worst day	-10.50% (2025-12-17)	-12.62% (2026-03-20)
Best day	+15.62% (2025-12-10)	+10.47% (2026-01-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: GEV vs. VST (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both GEV and VST crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both GEV and VST had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	GEV	VST
2025-12-17	-10.50%	-7.77%

Days when GEV had a big down day

Date (interval)	GEV	VST
2025-11-04	-5.73%	-3.78%
2025-11-20	-6.27%	-2.99%
2025-12-17	-10.50%	-7.77%
2026-03-26	-5.47%	+0.52%
2026-05-07	-6.55%	-2.74%

Days when VST had a big down day

Date (interval)	GEV	VST
2025-09-23	-1.70%	-6.28%
2025-10-10	-4.68%	-6.26%
2025-12-17	-10.50%	-7.77%
2026-01-07	-3.50%	-8.81%
2026-01-16	+6.12%	-7.54%
2026-02-04	-4.36%	-6.85%
2026-03-20	-3.00%	-12.62%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of GE Vernova vs. Vistra Corp (1-Year)

Metric	GEV	VST
Total Return	+148.1%	-4.7%
Annualized Volatility	48.3%	47.8%
Sharpe Ratio	2.06	0.05
Sortino Ratio	3.56	0.07
Calmar Ratio	8.54	-0.14
Sterling Ratio	10.66	-0.37
Treynor Ratio	0.55	0.02
Ulcer Index	7.10%	18.64%
Max Drawdown	-17.5%	-34.5%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.48	0.40
5% VaR (daily log return)	-4.46%	-4.97%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-5.71%	-6.96%
Skew	0.73	-0.41
Excess kurtosis	4.29	1.54
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 6	7 / 4

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-05-14 → 2026-05-12 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): GEV: 252 days/year; VST: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

GEV: 4.15% over 2025-05-14 → 2026-05-12.

VST: 4.15% over 2025-05-14 → 2026-05-12.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

GEV: ≈ -11.7%/yr

VST: ≈ -11.4%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

GE Vernova vs Vistra Corp: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: GEV or VST?

GEV showed higher volatility at 48.3% annualized, compared to 47.8% for VST Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does GEV provide diversification when held with VST?

GEV and VST are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.45. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for GEV vs VST?

Over the past year, GEV's 5% VaR was -4.46% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -5.71% (worst 13 days). VST's were -4.97% and -6.96% (worst 13 days).

Do GEV and VST crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when VST has a 2σ down day, GEV also does 14.3% (1/7 days). In the other direction, when GEV has one, VST also does 20.0% (1/5 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: GEV or VST?

GEV showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 2.06 versus VST's 0.05 Over the past year.

Can GEV and VST be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. GEV's higher volatility (48.3%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: GEV or VST?

Share This Comparison of GEV vs VST

Relative Performance of GEV vs VST (Normalized to 100)

Trade GEV or VST

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

GE Vernova vs Vistra Corp Performance Over Time

GE Vernova vs Vistra Corp Correlation

Drawdown

GE Vernova vs Vistra Corp Volatility (GEV vs VST)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of GEV and VST

Sharpe Ratio: GEV vs. VST

Sortino Ratio of GEV and VST

Sortino Ratio: GEV vs. VST

Calmar Ratio of GEV and VST

Calmar Ratio: GEV vs. VST

Sterling Ratio of GEV and VST

Sterling Ratio: GEV vs. VST

Treynor Ratio of GEV and VST

Treynor Ratio: GEV vs. VST

Ulcer Index of GEV and VST

Ulcer Index: GEV vs. VST

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): GE Vernova vs. Vistra Corp

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: GEV vs. VST (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: GEV vs. VST (2σ)

Days when both GEV and VST had a big down day (2σ)

Days when GEV had a big down day

Days when VST had a big down day

Full Comparison of GE Vernova vs. Vistra Corp (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

GE Vernova vs Vistra Corp: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: GEV or VST?

Does GEV provide diversification when held with VST?

How bad are the worst 5% days for GEV vs VST?

Do GEV and VST crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: GEV or VST?

Can GEV and VST be combined in a portfolio?