GOOG vs MSFT: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: GOOG or MSFT?

Over the past year, GOOG looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (GOOG +84.6% vs MSFT +2.6%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (GOOG 2.04 vs MSFT 0.07). On risk, MSFT was less volatile (MSFT 26.7% vs GOOG 30.6%), GOOG had a smaller max drawdown (GOOG -16.5% vs MSFT -28.9%), and GOOG had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of GOOG -3.76% vs MSFT -3.78%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: GOOG or MSFT?

Over the past year, GOOG outperformed (+84.6% vs +2.6%) with a Sharpe ratio of 2.04.

Total Return

GOOG WIN +84.6%

MSFT +2.6%

Sharpe Ratio

GOOG WIN 2.04

MSFT 0.07

Annualized Volatility

GOOG 30.6%

MSFT WIN 26.7%

Max Drawdown

GOOG WIN -16.5%

MSFT -28.9%

Analysis period: 2025-02-27 to 2026-02-25

GOOG Total Return

↑ +84.6%

MSFT Total Return

↑ +2.6%

Relative Performance of GOOG vs MSFT (Normalized to 100)

GOOG MSFT

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: GOOG delivered a +84.6% total return, while MSFT returned +2.6% over the same period. GOOG outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): GOOG had a higher Sharpe (2.04 vs 0.07), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): GOOG was more volatile, with 30.6% annualized volatility, versus 26.7% for MSFT.
Maximum Drawdown: GOOG's maximum drawdown was -16.5%, while MSFT experienced a deeper drawdown of -28.9%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), GOOG's VaR was -2.51% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -3.76%; MSFT's were -2.54% and -3.78%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: GOOG 0.41 vs MSFT -0.09. Excess kurtosis: GOOG 3.85 vs MSFT 10.74. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): GOOG 6/4, MSFT 5/4. Worst day: GOOG -7.51% (2025-05-07) vs MSFT -9.99% (2026-01-29). Best day: GOOG +9.88% (2025-04-09) vs MSFT +10.13% (2025-04-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - GOOG: 3.37 vs. MSFT: 0.10 , Calmar - GOOG: 5.17 vs. MSFT: 0.09 , Sterling - GOOG: 5.65 vs. MSFT: -0.08 , Treynor - GOOG: 0.64 vs. MSFT: 0.02 , Ulcer Index - GOOG: 5.04% vs. MSFT: 9.27%

Google vs Microsoft Correlation

0.24 Average Correlation

Google and Microsoft are weakly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.24, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.

For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining GOOG and MSFT could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	-0.02
Average (full period)	0.24
Minimum	-0.17
Maximum	0.92

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 27, 2025:

GOOG $18,463.35 +84.6%

MSFT $10,260.59 +2.6%

Difference: $8,202.76 (GOOG ahead)

Google and Microsoft: Risk Analysis

Google experienced its maximum drawdown of -16.5% from 2025-03-07 to 2025-04-08. It took 62 days to recover.

Microsoft experienced its maximum drawdown of -28.9% from 2025-10-28 to 2026-02-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of GOOG and MSFT

GOOG Sharpe Ratio

↑ 2.04

MSFT Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.07

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. GOOG had a higher Sharpe (2.04 vs 0.07), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of GOOG and MSFT

GOOG Sortino Ratio

↑ 3.37

MSFT Sortino Ratio

↑ 0.10

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). GOOG had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: GOOG 18.6% vs MSFT 18.6%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of GOOG and MSFT

GOOG Calmar Ratio

↑ 5.17

MSFT Calmar Ratio

↑ 0.09

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. GOOG posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of GOOG and MSFT

GOOG Sterling Ratio

↑ 5.65

MSFT Sterling Ratio

↓ -0.08

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). GOOG posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of GOOG and MSFT

GOOG Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.64

MSFT Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.02

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. GOOG posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of GOOG and MSFT

GOOG Ulcer Index

5.04%

MSFT Ulcer Index

9.27%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. GOOG had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Google vs. Microsoft

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	GOOG	MSFT
5% VaR (daily log return)	-2.51%	-2.54%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-3.76% (worst 13 days)	-3.78% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.41	-0.09
Excess kurtosis	3.85	10.74
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 4	5 / 4
Worst day	-7.51% (2025-05-07)	-9.99% (2026-01-29)
Best day	+9.88% (2025-04-09)	+10.13% (2025-04-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When MSFT has a big down day, GOOG also does

20.0%

1 / 5 days

When GOOG has a big down day, MSFT also does

16.7%

1 / 6 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both GOOG and MSFT had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	GOOG	MSFT
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-4.40%	-3.34%

Days when GOOG had a big down day

Date (interval)	GOOG	MSFT
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-4.40%	-3.34%
2025-03-28	-4.89%	-3.02%
2025-04-03	-3.92%	-2.36%
2025-04-10	-3.53%	-2.34%
2025-05-07	-7.51%	+0.01%
2025-06-18 → 2025-06-20	-3.59%	-0.59%

Days when MSFT had a big down day

Date (interval)	GOOG	MSFT
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-4.40%	-3.34%
2025-04-04	-3.20%	-3.56%
2025-04-16	-2.00%	-3.66%
2026-01-29	+0.71%	-9.99%
2026-02-05	-0.60%	-4.95%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Google vs Microsoft Volatility (GOOG vs MSFT)

GOOG Volatility

30.6%

±1.93% daily

MSFT Volatility

26.7%

±1.68% daily

Typical daily swing

GOOG

±1.93%

MSFT

±1.68%

Google's annualized volatility of 30.6% means it typically moves ±1.93% on any given day.

Microsoft's annualized volatility of 26.7% means it typically moves ±1.68% on any given day.

GOOG's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while MSFT's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Google vs Microsoft Performance Over Time

Metric	GOOG	MSFT
30 Days	-6.2%	-14.8%
90 Days	-2.2%	-17.5%
180 Days	46.8%	-20.8%
1 Year	84.6%	2.6%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Google vs. Microsoft (1-Year)

Metric	GOOG	MSFT
Total Return	+84.6%	+2.6%
Annualized Volatility	30.6%	26.7%
Sharpe Ratio	2.04	0.07
Sortino Ratio	3.37	0.10
Calmar Ratio	5.17	0.09
Sterling Ratio	5.65	-0.08
Treynor Ratio	0.64	0.02
Ulcer Index	5.04%	9.27%
Max Drawdown	-16.5%	-28.9%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.53	0.56
5% VaR (daily log return)	-2.51%	-2.54%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-3.76%	-3.78%
Skew	0.41	-0.09
Excess kurtosis	3.85	10.74
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 4	5 / 4

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): GOOG: 252 days/year; MSFT: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

GOOG: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.

MSFT: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

GOOG: ≈ -4.7%/yr

MSFT: ≈ -3.6%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Google vs Microsoft: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: GOOG or MSFT?

GOOG showed higher volatility at 30.6% annualized, compared to 26.7% for MSFT Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does GOOG provide diversification when held with MSFT?

GOOG and MSFT are weakly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.24. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.

How bad are the worst 5% days for GOOG vs MSFT?

Over the past year, GOOG's 5% VaR was -2.51% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -3.76% (worst 13 days). MSFT's were -2.54% and -3.78% (worst 13 days).

Do GOOG and MSFT crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when MSFT has a 2σ down day, GOOG also does 20.0% (1/5 days). In the other direction, when GOOG has one, MSFT also does 16.7% (1/6 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: GOOG or MSFT?

GOOG showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 2.04 versus MSFT's 0.07 Over the past year.

Can GOOG and MSFT be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. GOOG's higher volatility (30.6%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.