Hyperliquid vs Circle (HYPE vs CRCL) 2026: Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: HYPE or CRCL?

Over the past 6 months, CRCL looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (CRCL +222.6% vs HYPE +15.3%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (CRCL 1.27 vs HYPE 1.25). On risk, HYPE was less volatile (HYPE 94.8% vs CRCL 214.2%), HYPE had a smaller max drawdown (HYPE -63.6% vs CRCL -80.9%), and HYPE had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of HYPE -9.08% vs CRCL -12.97%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: HYPE or CRCL?

Over the past year, CRCL outperformed HYPE. CRCL returned +222.6% compared with HYPE’s +15.3%. CRCL had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.27 versus HYPE’s 1.25. HYPE was less volatile than CRCL, and HYPE had a smaller max drawdown than CRCL.

Total Return

HYPE +15.3%

CRCL +222.6%

Sharpe Ratio

HYPE 1.25

CRCL 1.27

Annualized Volatility

HYPE 94.8%

CRCL 214.2%

Max Drawdown

HYPE -63.6%

CRCL -80.9%

Metric winners: Total Return: CRCL; Sharpe Ratio: CRCL; Annualized Volatility: HYPE (less volatile); Max Drawdown: HYPE (smaller drawdown).

HYPE Total Return

↑ +15.3%

CRCL Total Return

↑ +222.6%

Relative Performance of HYPE vs CRCL (Normalized to 100)

HYPE CRCL

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: HYPE delivered a +15.3% total return, while CRCL returned +222.6% over the same period. CRCL outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): CRCL had a higher Sharpe (1.27 vs 1.25), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): CRCL was more volatile, with 214.2% annualized volatility, versus 94.8% for HYPE.
Maximum Drawdown: HYPE's maximum drawdown was -63.6%, while CRCL experienced a deeper drawdown of -80.9%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), HYPE's VaR was -7.04% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -9.08%; CRCL's were -9.54% and -12.97%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: HYPE 0.40 vs CRCL 4.99. Excess kurtosis: HYPE 0.64 vs CRCL 46.40. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): HYPE 7/11, CRCL 1/5. Worst day: HYPE -13.08% (2025-10-10) vs CRCL -20.11% (2026-03-24). Best day: HYPE +21.00% (2026-01-26) vs CRCL +168.48% (2025-06-05).
Risk ratios: Sortino - HYPE: 2.05 vs. CRCL: 4.07 , Calmar - HYPE: 1.89 vs. CRCL: 3.41 , Sterling - HYPE: 3.65 vs. CRCL: 3.36 , Treynor - HYPE: 0.59 vs. CRCL: 1.20 , Ulcer Index - HYPE: 33.02% vs. CRCL: 56.32%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on June 4, 2025:

HYPE $11,527.76 +15.3%

CRCL $32,261.29 +222.6%

Difference: $20,733.53 (CRCL ahead)

Hyperliquid vs Circle Performance Over Time

Metric	HYPE	CRCL
30 Days	2.3%	-1.1%
90 Days	74.2%	40.2%
180 Days	-7%	-29.6%
1 Year	119.7%	N/A

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Hyperliquid vs Circle Correlation

Average Correlation

weakly correlated

0.19

Current (30-day) 0.12

30-day rolling range -0.27 to +0.57

Hyperliquid and Circle are weakly correlated over the past 6 months. With a correlation of 0.19, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.

For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining HYPE and CRCL could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.12
Average (full period)	0.19
Minimum (30-day rolling)	-0.27
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.57

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

HYPE

-63.6%

CRCL

-80.9%

Hyperliquid experienced its maximum drawdown of -63.6% from 2025-09-18 to 2026-01-19. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Circle experienced its maximum drawdown of -80.9% from 2025-06-23 to 2026-02-05. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Hyperliquid vs Circle Volatility (HYPE vs CRCL)

HYPE Volatility

94.8%

±4.96% 1-day vol

CRCL Volatility

214.2%

±13.49% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

HYPE

±4.96%

CRCL

±13.49%

Hyperliquid's 94.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±4.96% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Circle's 214.2% annualized volatility translates to about ±13.49% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

CRCL had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; HYPE was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of HYPE and CRCL

Sharpe Ratio: HYPE vs. CRCL

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. CRCL had a higher Sharpe (1.27 vs 1.25), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of HYPE and CRCL

Sortino Ratio: HYPE vs. CRCL

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). CRCL had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: HYPE 58.0% vs CRCL 67.0%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of HYPE and CRCL

Calmar Ratio: HYPE vs. CRCL

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. CRCL posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of HYPE and CRCL

Sterling Ratio: HYPE vs. CRCL

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). HYPE posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of HYPE and CRCL

Treynor Ratio: HYPE vs. CRCL

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. CRCL posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of HYPE and CRCL

Ulcer Index: HYPE vs. CRCL

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. HYPE had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Hyperliquid vs. Circle

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: HYPE vs. CRCL (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	HYPE	CRCL
5% VaR (daily log return)	-7.04%	-9.54%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.08% (worst 19 days)	-12.97% (worst 12 days)
Skew	0.40	4.99
Excess kurtosis	0.64	46.40
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 11	1 / 5
Worst day	-13.08% (2025-10-10)	-20.11% (2026-03-24)
Best day	+21.00% (2026-01-26)	+168.48% (2025-06-05)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=222). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: HYPE vs. CRCL (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both HYPE and CRCL crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both HYPE and CRCL had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when HYPE had a big down day

Date (interval)	HYPE	CRCL
2025-06-18 → 2025-06-20	-15.01%	+20.39%
2025-09-19 → 2025-09-22	-15.72%	-4.51%
2025-09-25	-11.60%	-5.26%
2025-10-10	-13.08%	-11.66%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-13.16%	-7.52%

Days when CRCL had a big down day

Date (interval)	HYPE	CRCL
2026-03-24	+0.34%	-20.11%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Hyperliquid vs. Circle (1-Year)

Metric	HYPE	CRCL
Total Return	+15.3%	+222.6%
Annualized Volatility	94.8%	214.2%
Sharpe Ratio	1.25	1.27
Sortino Ratio	2.05	4.07
Calmar Ratio	1.89	3.41
Sterling Ratio	3.65	3.36
Treynor Ratio	0.59	1.20
Ulcer Index	33.02%	56.32%
Max Drawdown	-63.6%	-80.9%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.34	0.45
5% VaR (daily log return)	-7.04%	-9.54%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.08%	-12.97%
Skew	0.40	4.99
Excess kurtosis	0.64	46.40
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 11	1 / 5

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-06-04 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 193 rolling 30-day values (from 222 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): HYPE: 365 days/year; CRCL: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

HYPE: 4.17% over 2025-04-24 → 2026-04-23.

CRCL: 4.13% over 2025-06-04 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

HYPE: ≈ -44.9%/yr

CRCL: ≈ -229.4%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Hyperliquid vs Circle: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: HYPE or CRCL?

CRCL showed higher volatility at 214.2% annualized, compared to 94.8% for HYPE Over the past 6 months. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does HYPE provide diversification when held with CRCL?

HYPE and CRCL are weakly correlated over the past 6 months, with an average correlation of 0.19. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.

How bad are the worst 5% days for HYPE vs CRCL?

Over the past 6 months, HYPE's 5% VaR was -7.04% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -9.08% (worst 19 days). CRCL's were -9.54% and -12.97% (worst 12 days).

Do HYPE and CRCL crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=222), when CRCL has a 2σ down day, HYPE also does 0.0% (0/1 days). In the other direction, when HYPE has one, CRCL also does 0.0% (0/5 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: HYPE or CRCL?

CRCL showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.27 versus HYPE's 1.25 Over the past 6 months.

Can HYPE and CRCL be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. CRCL's higher volatility (214.2%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: HYPE or CRCL?

Share This Comparison of HYPE vs CRCL

Relative Performance of HYPE vs CRCL (Normalized to 100)

Trade HYPE or CRCL

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Hyperliquid vs Circle Performance Over Time

Hyperliquid vs Circle Correlation

Drawdown

Hyperliquid vs Circle Volatility (HYPE vs CRCL)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of HYPE and CRCL

Sharpe Ratio: HYPE vs. CRCL

Sortino Ratio of HYPE and CRCL

Sortino Ratio: HYPE vs. CRCL

Calmar Ratio of HYPE and CRCL

Calmar Ratio: HYPE vs. CRCL

Sterling Ratio of HYPE and CRCL

Sterling Ratio: HYPE vs. CRCL

Treynor Ratio of HYPE and CRCL

Treynor Ratio: HYPE vs. CRCL

Ulcer Index of HYPE and CRCL

Ulcer Index: HYPE vs. CRCL

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Hyperliquid vs. Circle

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: HYPE vs. CRCL (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: HYPE vs. CRCL (2σ)

Days when both HYPE and CRCL had a big down day (2σ)

Days when HYPE had a big down day

Days when CRCL had a big down day

Full Comparison of Hyperliquid vs. Circle (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Hyperliquid vs Circle: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: HYPE or CRCL?

Does HYPE provide diversification when held with CRCL?

How bad are the worst 5% days for HYPE vs CRCL?

Do HYPE and CRCL crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: HYPE or CRCL?

Can HYPE and CRCL be combined in a portfolio?