Cite This Comparison
"iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (IBIT vs ETHA): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 9, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/ibit-vs-etha Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-13 to 2026-01-09
Relative Performance of IBIT vs ETHA (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: IBIT delivered a -3.9% total return, while ETHA returned -0.9% over the same period. ETHA outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): ETHA had a higher Sharpe (0.30 vs 0.01), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
- Volatility (Annualized): ETHA was more volatile, with 74.8% annualized volatility, versus 41.8% for IBIT.
- Maximum Drawdown: IBIT's maximum drawdown was -32.7%, while ETHA experienced a deeper drawdown of -58.5%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), IBIT's VaR was -3.86% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -5.51%; ETHA's were -6.86% and -10.29%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: IBIT -0.16 vs ETHA -0.22. Excess kurtosis: IBIT 0.28 vs ETHA 1.73. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): IBIT 6/5, ETHA 5/5. Worst day: IBIT -9.59% (2025-03-10) vs ETHA -20.18% (2025-02-03). Best day: IBIT +7.17% (2025-04-09) vs ETHA +16.70% (2025-05-08).
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Correlation
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and iShares Ethereum Trust ETF are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.80, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.
For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both IBIT and ETHA provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.92 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.80 | |
| Minimum | 0.39 | |
| Maximum | 0.95 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 13, 2025:
Difference: $297.33 (ETHA ahead)
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and iShares Ethereum Trust ETF: Risk Analysis
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.7% from 2025-10-06 to 2025-12-18. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
iShares Ethereum Trust ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -58.5% from 2025-01-17 to 2025-04-08. It took 101 days to recover.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of IBIT and ETHA
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. ETHA had a higher Sharpe (0.30 vs 0.01), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of IBIT and ETHA
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. ETHA had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: IBIT 25.6% vs ETHA 46.3%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF vs. iShares Ethereum Trust ETF
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
| Metric (1y) | IBIT | ETHA |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -3.86% | -6.86% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -5.51% (worst 13 days) | -10.29% (worst 13 days) |
| Skew | -0.16 | -0.22 |
| Excess kurtosis | 0.28 | 1.73 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 6 / 5 | 5 / 5 |
| Worst day | -9.59% (2025-03-10) | -20.18% (2025-02-03) |
| Best day | +7.17% (2025-04-09) | +16.70% (2025-05-08) |
Downside co-moves (2σ)
Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both IBIT and ETHA had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | IBIT | ETHA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.14% | -13.43% |
| 2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07 | -7.21% | -15.11% |
| 2025-11-04 | -5.53% | -10.37% |
| 2025-11-28 → 2025-12-01 | -5.92% | -9.50% |
Days when IBIT had a big down day
| Date (interval) | IBIT | ETHA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-25 | -6.33% | -5.80% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.14% | -13.43% |
| 2025-04-03 | -5.75% | -6.63% |
| 2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07 | -7.21% | -15.11% |
| 2025-11-04 | -5.53% | -10.37% |
| 2025-11-28 → 2025-12-01 | -5.92% | -9.50% |
Days when ETHA had a big down day
| Date (interval) | IBIT | ETHA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-31 → 2025-02-03 | -0.23% | -18.27% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.14% | -13.43% |
| 2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07 | -7.21% | -15.11% |
| 2025-11-04 | -5.53% | -10.37% |
| 2025-11-28 → 2025-12-01 | -5.92% | -9.50% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Volatility (IBIT vs ETHA)
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF's annualized volatility of 41.8% means it typically moves ±2.63% on any given day.
iShares Ethereum Trust ETF's annualized volatility of 74.8% means it typically moves ±4.71% on any given day.
ETHA's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while IBIT's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF Performance Over Time
| Metric | IBIT | ETHA |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | -2.5% | -8.7% |
| 90 Days | -22.7% | -23.2% |
| 180 Days | -23.9% | 1.7% |
| 1 Year | -3.9% | -0.9% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF vs. iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (1-Year)
| Metric | IBIT | ETHA |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | -3.9% | -0.9% |
| Annualized Volatility | 41.8% | 74.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.01 | 0.30 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.02 | 0.49 |
| Max Drawdown | -32.7% | -58.5% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -3.86% | -6.86% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -5.51% | -10.29% |
| Skew | -0.16 | -0.22 |
| Excess kurtosis | 0.28 | 1.73 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 6 / 5 | 5 / 5 |
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF vs iShares Ethereum Trust ETF: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: IBIT or ETHA?
ETHA showed higher volatility at 74.8% annualized, compared to 41.8% for IBIT Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does IBIT provide diversification when held with ETHA?
IBIT and ETHA are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.80. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.
How bad are the worst 5% days for IBIT vs ETHA?
Over the past year, IBIT's 5% VaR was -3.86% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -5.51% (worst 13 days). ETHA's were -6.86% and -10.29% (worst 13 days).
Do IBIT and ETHA crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=249), when ETHA has a 2σ down day, IBIT also does 80.0% (4/5 days). In the other direction, when IBIT has one, ETHA also does 66.7% (4/6 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: IBIT or ETHA?
ETHA showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 0.30 versus IBIT's 0.01 Over the past year.
Can IBIT and ETHA be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. ETHA's higher volatility (74.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.