MRVL vs MU: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: MRVL or MU?

Over the past year, MU looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (MU +286.8% vs MRVL -26.5%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (MU 2.39 vs MRVL -0.21). On risk, MU was less volatile (MU 64.1% vs MRVL 65.2%), MU had a smaller max drawdown (MU -39.3% vs MRVL -55.5%), and MU had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of MU -8.92% vs MRVL -10.80%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: MRVL or MU?

Over the past year, MU outperformed (-26.5% vs +286.8%) with a Sharpe ratio of 2.39.

Total Return

MRVL -26.5%

MU WIN +286.8%

Sharpe Ratio

MRVL -0.21

MU WIN 2.39

Annualized Volatility

MRVL 65.2%

MU WIN 64.1%

Max Drawdown

MRVL -55.5%

MU WIN -39.3%

Analysis period: 2025-02-18 to 2026-02-13

MRVL Total Return

↓ -26.5%

MU Total Return

↑ +286.8%

Relative Performance of MRVL vs MU (Normalized to 100)

MRVL MU

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: MRVL delivered a -26.5% total return, while MU returned +286.8% over the same period. MU outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): MRVL had a negative Sharpe (-0.21) while MU was positive (2.39), indicating MU had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): MRVL was more volatile, with 65.2% annualized volatility, versus 64.1% for MU.
Maximum Drawdown: MU's maximum drawdown was -39.3%, while MRVL experienced a deeper drawdown of -55.5%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), MRVL's VaR was -6.28% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -10.80%; MU's were -5.52% and -8.92%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: MRVL -0.90 vs MU -0.29. Excess kurtosis: MRVL 6.71 vs MU 2.77. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): MRVL 5/1, MU 6/5. Worst day: MRVL -19.81% (2025-03-06) vs MU -16.09% (2025-04-03). Best day: MRVL +21.85% (2025-04-09) vs MU +18.81% (2025-04-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - MRVL: -0.28 vs. MU: 3.82 , Calmar - MRVL: -0.48 vs. MU: 7.49 , Sterling - MRVL: -0.56 vs. MU: 13.57 , Treynor - MRVL: -0.06 vs. MU: 0.71 , Ulcer Index - MRVL: 33.14% vs. MU: 12.32%

Marvell vs Micron Technology Correlation

0.52 Average Correlation

Marvell and Micron Technology are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.52, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.37
Average (full period)	0.52
Minimum	0.08
Maximum	0.94

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 18, 2025:

MRVL $7,351.6 -26.5%

MU $38,675.35 +286.8%

Difference: $31,323.75 (MU ahead)

Marvell and Micron Technology: Risk Analysis

Marvell experienced its maximum drawdown of -55.5% from 2025-02-19 to 2025-04-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Micron Technology experienced its maximum drawdown of -39.3% from 2025-02-18 to 2025-04-04. It took 63 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of MRVL and MU

MRVL Sharpe Ratio

↓ -0.21

MU Sharpe Ratio

↑ 2.39

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. MRVL had a negative Sharpe (-0.21) while MU was positive (2.39), indicating MU had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of MRVL and MU

MRVL Sortino Ratio

↓ -0.28

MU Sortino Ratio

↑ 3.82

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). MU had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: MRVL 48.5% vs MU 40.2%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of MRVL and MU

MRVL Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.48

MU Calmar Ratio

↑ 7.49

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. MU posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of MRVL and MU

MRVL Sterling Ratio

↓ -0.56

MU Sterling Ratio

↑ 13.57

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). MU posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of MRVL and MU

MRVL Treynor Ratio

↓ -0.06

MU Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.71

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. MU posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of MRVL and MU

MRVL Ulcer Index

33.14%

MU Ulcer Index

12.32%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. MU had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Marvell vs. Micron Technology

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	MRVL	MU
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.28%	-5.52%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-10.80% (worst 13 days)	-8.92% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.90	-0.29
Excess kurtosis	6.71	2.77
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 1	6 / 5
Worst day	-19.81% (2025-03-06)	-16.09% (2025-04-03)
Best day	+21.85% (2025-04-09)	+18.81% (2025-04-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When MU has a big down day, MRVL also does

50.0%

3 / 6 days

When MRVL has a big down day, MU also does

60.0%

3 / 5 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both MRVL and MU had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	MRVL	MU
2025-04-03	-12.00%	-16.09%
2025-04-04	-11.16%	-12.94%
2025-04-10	-13.27%	-10.04%

Days when MRVL had a big down day

Date (interval)	MRVL	MU
2025-03-06	-19.81%	-5.37%
2025-04-03	-12.00%	-16.09%
2025-04-04	-11.16%	-12.94%
2025-04-10	-13.27%	-10.04%
2025-08-29	-18.60%	-2.45%

Days when MU had a big down day

Date (interval)	MRVL	MU
2025-03-21	-0.14%	-8.04%
2025-04-03	-12.00%	-16.09%
2025-04-04	-11.16%	-12.94%
2025-04-10	-13.27%	-10.04%
2025-11-20	-5.71%	-10.87%
2026-02-04	-2.40%	-9.55%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Marvell vs Micron Technology Volatility (MRVL vs MU)

MRVL Volatility

65.2%

±4.11% daily

MU Volatility

64.1%

±4.04% daily

Typical daily swing

MRVL

±4.11%

±4.04%

Marvell's annualized volatility of 65.2% means it typically moves ±4.11% on any given day.

Micron Technology's annualized volatility of 64.1% means it typically moves ±4.04% on any given day.

MRVL's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while MU's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Marvell vs Micron Technology Performance Over Time

Metric	MRVL	MU
30 Days	-3.2%	23.5%
90 Days	-9%	66.8%
180 Days	3.3%	240.9%
1 Year	N/A	N/A

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Marvell vs. Micron Technology (1-Year)

Metric	MRVL	MU
Total Return	-26.5%	+286.8%
Annualized Volatility	65.2%	64.1%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.21	2.39
Sortino Ratio	-0.28	3.82
Calmar Ratio	-0.48	7.49
Sterling Ratio	-0.56	13.57
Treynor Ratio	-0.06	0.71
Ulcer Index	33.14%	12.32%
Max Drawdown	-55.5%	-39.3%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.55	0.59
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.28%	-5.52%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-10.80%	-8.92%
Skew	-0.90	-0.29
Excess kurtosis	6.71	2.77
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 1	6 / 5

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-18 → 2026-02-13 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): MRVL: 252 days/year; MU: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

MRVL: 4.20% over 2025-02-18 → 2026-02-13.

MU: 4.20% over 2025-02-18 → 2026-02-13.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

MRVL: ≈ -21.3%/yr

MU: ≈ -20.5%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Marvell vs Micron Technology: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: MRVL or MU?

MRVL showed higher volatility at 65.2% annualized, compared to 64.1% for MU Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does MRVL provide diversification when held with MU?

MRVL and MU are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.52. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for MRVL vs MU?

Over the past year, MRVL's 5% VaR was -6.28% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -10.80% (worst 13 days). MU's were -5.52% and -8.92% (worst 13 days).

Do MRVL and MU crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when MU has a 2σ down day, MRVL also does 50.0% (3/6 days). In the other direction, when MRVL has one, MU also does 60.0% (3/5 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: MRVL or MU?

MRVL had a negative Sharpe (-0.21) while MU was positive (2.39) Over the past year, indicating MU had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can MRVL and MU be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. MRVL's higher volatility (65.2%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.