Cite This Comparison
"MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin (MSTR vs BTC): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 10, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/mstr-vs-btc Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-13 to 2026-01-10
Relative Performance of MSTR vs BTC (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: MSTR delivered a -52.1% total return, while BTC returned -4.2% over the same period. BTC outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both Sharpe ratios were negative (BTC -0.01 vs MSTR -0.72), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
- Volatility (Annualized): MSTR was more volatile, with 72.9% annualized volatility, versus 41.4% for BTC.
- Maximum Drawdown: BTC's maximum drawdown was -32.1%, while MSTR experienced a deeper drawdown of -66.7%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), MSTR's VaR was -7.96% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -10.46%; BTC's were -3.38% and -4.97%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: MSTR 0.12 vs BTC -0.00. Excess kurtosis: MSTR 2.74 vs BTC 2.44. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): MSTR 6/6, BTC 10/9. Worst day: MSTR -18.25% (2025-03-10) vs BTC -9.03% (2025-03-04). Best day: MSTR +22.12% (2025-04-09) vs BTC +9.17% (2025-03-03).
MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin Correlation
MicroStrategy and Bitcoin are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.70, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.
For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both MSTR and BTC provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.86 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.70 | |
| Minimum | 0.23 | |
| Maximum | 0.91 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 13, 2025:
Difference: $4,790.62 (BTC ahead)
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MicroStrategy and Bitcoin: Risk Analysis
MicroStrategy experienced its maximum drawdown of -66.7% from 2025-07-16 to 2025-12-31. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.1% from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of MSTR and BTC
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both Sharpe ratios were negative (BTC -0.01 vs MSTR -0.72), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of MSTR and BTC
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. BTC had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: MSTR 46.8% vs BTC 28.5%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: MicroStrategy vs. Bitcoin
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
| Metric (1y) | MSTR | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -7.96% | -3.38% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -10.46% (worst 13 days) | -4.97% (worst 19 days) |
| Skew | 0.12 | -0.00 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.74 | 2.44 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 6 / 6 | 10 / 9 |
| Worst day | -18.25% (2025-03-10) | -9.03% (2025-03-04) |
| Best day | +22.12% (2025-04-09) | +9.17% (2025-03-03) |
Downside co-moves (2σ)
Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both MSTR and BTC had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | MSTR | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -16.68% | -9.21% |
Days when MSTR had a big down day
| Date (interval) | MSTR | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-25 | -11.41% | -2.89% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -16.68% | -9.21% |
| 2025-03-28 | -10.84% | -3.29% |
| 2025-04-03 | -9.68% | +0.77% |
| 2025-04-08 | -11.26% | -3.60% |
| 2025-11-19 | -9.82% | -1.57% |
Days when BTC had a big down day
| Date (interval) | MSTR | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-21 → 2025-02-24 | -5.65% | -4.93% |
| 2025-02-26 | +5.09% | -5.47% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -16.68% | -9.21% |
| 2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07 | -8.67% | -5.57% |
| 2025-08-22 → 2025-08-25 | -4.17% | -5.69% |
| 2025-10-10 | -4.84% | -6.98% |
| 2025-11-14 | -4.22% | -5.29% |
| 2025-11-20 | -5.02% | -5.16% |
| 2025-11-28 → 2025-12-01 | -3.25% | -5.13% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin Volatility (MSTR vs BTC)
MicroStrategy's annualized volatility of 72.9% means it typically moves ±4.59% on any given day.
Bitcoin's annualized volatility of 41.4% means it typically moves ±2.16% on any given day.
MSTR's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while BTC's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin Performance Over Time
| Metric | MSTR | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | -14.8% | -2.4% |
| 90 Days | -48.4% | -20.1% |
| 180 Days | -63.8% | -22.9% |
| 1 Year | -52.1% | -4.5% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of MicroStrategy vs. Bitcoin (1-Year)
| Metric | MSTR | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | -52.1% | -4.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 72.9% | 41.4% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.72 | -0.01 |
| Sortino Ratio | -1.12 | -0.01 |
| Max Drawdown | -66.7% | -32.1% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -7.96% | -3.38% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -10.46% | -4.97% |
| Skew | 0.12 | -0.00 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.74 | 2.44 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 6 / 6 | 10 / 9 |
MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: MSTR or BTC?
MSTR showed higher volatility at 72.9% annualized, compared to 41.4% for BTC Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does MSTR provide diversification when held with BTC?
MSTR and BTC are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.70. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.
How bad are the worst 5% days for MSTR vs BTC?
Over the past year, MSTR's 5% VaR was -7.96% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -10.46% (worst 13 days). BTC's were -3.38% and -4.97% (worst 19 days).
Do MSTR and BTC crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=249), when BTC has a 2σ down day, MSTR also does 11.1% (1/9 days). In the other direction, when MSTR has one, BTC also does 16.7% (1/6 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: MSTR or BTC?
Both assets posted negative Sharpe ratios Over the past year (BTC -0.01 vs MSTR -0.72), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; BTC was less negative.
Can MSTR and BTC be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. MSTR's higher volatility (72.9%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.