Nebius Group vs Nvidia (NBIS vs NVDA) 2026: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Returns shown in USD.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: NBIS or NVDA?

From October 14, 2025 to October 13, 2026: NBIS led on total return (+61.4% vs NVDA +26.9%). NBIS had the higher Sharpe ratio (0.93 vs NVDA 0.73). On observed risk, NVDA had lower annualized volatility (37.2% vs NBIS 109.0%); NVDA had a smaller maximum drawdown (-20.2% vs NBIS -48.3%).

Total Return

NBIS +61.4%

NVDA +26.9%

Sharpe Ratio

NBIS 0.93

NVDA 0.73

Annualized Volatility

NBIS 109.0%

NVDA 37.2%

Max Drawdown

NBIS -48.3%

NVDA -20.2%

Metric winners: Total Return: NBIS; Sharpe Ratio: NBIS; Annualized Volatility: NVDA (less volatile); Max Drawdown: NVDA (smaller drawdown).

NBIS Total Return

↑ +61.4%

NVDA Total Return

↑ +26.9%

Relative Performance of NBIS vs NVDA (Normalized to 100)

NBIS NVDA

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: NBIS delivered a +61.4% total return, while NVDA returned +26.9% over the same period. NBIS outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): NBIS had a higher Sharpe (0.93 vs 0.73), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): NBIS was more volatile, with 109.0% annualized volatility, versus 37.2% for NVDA.
Maximum Drawdown: NVDA's maximum drawdown was -20.2%, while NBIS experienced a deeper drawdown of -48.3%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), NBIS's VaR was -10.18% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -13.05%; NVDA's were -3.80% and -4.62%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: NBIS 0.49 vs NVDA 0.15. Excess kurtosis: NBIS 1.49 vs NVDA 0.53. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): NBIS 6/9, NVDA 5/7. Worst day: NBIS -17.01% (2026-07-01) vs NVDA -6.20% (2026-06-05). Best day: NBIS +34.14% (2026-08-12) vs NVDA +8.74% (2026-08-27).
Risk ratios: Sortino - NBIS: 1.54 vs. NVDA: 1.09 , Calmar - NBIS: 1.28 vs. NVDA: 1.34 , Sterling - NBIS: 2.08 vs. NVDA: 1.17 , Treynor - NBIS: 0.27 vs. NVDA: 0.14 , Ulcer Index - NBIS: 22.64% vs. NVDA: 10.18%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on October 14, 2025:

NBIS $16,142.02 +61.4%

NVDA $12,694.13 +26.9%

Difference: $3,447.89 (NBIS ahead)

Nebius Group vs Nvidia Performance Over Time

Metric	NBIS	NVDA
30 Days	-7.9%	4.7%
90 Days	3.7%	7.5%
180 Days	25.1%	15.2%
1 Year	61.4%	26.9%

Across the available lookbacks in this table, NBIS led on total return for 180 Days and 1 Year, while NVDA led for 30 Days and 90 Days.

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Nebius Group vs Nvidia Correlation

Average Correlation

moderately correlated

0.47

Current (30-day) 0.42

30-day rolling range +0.15 to +0.69

Nebius Group and Nvidia were moderately correlated from October 14, 2025 to October 13, 2026. The reported average correlation of 0.47 showed moderate positive linear co-movement in the observed sample.

Correlation alone does not establish portfolio risk reduction or predict selloff behavior. This comparison does not model a combined portfolio.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.42
Average (full period)	0.47
Minimum (30-day rolling)	0.15
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.69

Correlation measures linear co-movement of returns: near +1 indicates strong positive co-movement, near 0 indicates weak linear co-movement, and negative values indicate inverse co-movement. Near-zero correlation does not establish independence. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

NBIS

-48.3%

NVDA

-20.2%

Nebius Group experienced its maximum drawdown of -48.3% from 2026-06-18 to 2026-07-29. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Nvidia experienced its maximum drawdown of -20.2% from 2025-10-29 to 2026-03-30. It took 25 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Nebius Group vs Nvidia Volatility (NBIS vs NVDA)

NBIS Volatility

109.0%

±6.87% 1-day vol

NVDA Volatility

37.2%

±2.34% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

NBIS

±6.87%

NVDA

±2.34%

Nebius Group's 109.0% annualized volatility translates to about ±6.87% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Nvidia's 37.2% annualized volatility translates to about ±2.34% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

NBIS had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; NVDA was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of NBIS and NVDA

Sharpe Ratio: NBIS vs. NVDA

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. NBIS had a higher Sharpe (0.93 vs 0.73), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of NBIS and NVDA

Sortino Ratio: NBIS vs. NVDA

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). NBIS had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: NBIS 66.0% vs NVDA 24.8%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of NBIS and NVDA

Calmar Ratio: NBIS vs. NVDA

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. NVDA posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of NBIS and NVDA

Sterling Ratio: NBIS vs. NVDA

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). NBIS posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of NBIS and NVDA

Treynor Ratio: NBIS vs. NVDA

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. NBIS posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of NBIS and NVDA

Ulcer Index: NBIS vs. NVDA

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. NVDA had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Nebius Group vs. Nvidia

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: NBIS vs. NVDA (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	NBIS	NVDA
5% VaR (daily log return)	-10.18%	-3.80%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-13.05% (worst 13 days)	-4.62% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.49	0.15
Excess kurtosis	1.49	0.53
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 9	5 / 7
Worst day	-17.01% (2026-07-01)	-6.20% (2026-06-05)
Best day	+34.14% (2026-08-12)	+8.74% (2026-08-27)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=250). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: NBIS vs. NVDA (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both NBIS and NVDA crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both NBIS and NVDA had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when NBIS had a big down day

Date (interval)	NBIS	NVDA
2026-02-27	-13.05%	-4.16%
2026-07-01	-17.01%	-1.25%
2026-07-16	-13.90%	-2.40%
2026-07-24	-15.02%	-0.92%
2026-07-29	-12.65%	-3.55%
2026-08-06	-13.29%	-0.10%

Days when NVDA had a big down day

Date (interval)	NBIS	NVDA
2026-02-26	-1.17%	-5.46%
2026-04-30	-2.10%	-4.63%
2026-06-05	-12.27%	-6.20%
2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27	+0.06%	-4.99%
2026-08-28	-4.26%	-4.57%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Nebius Group vs. Nvidia (1-Year)

Metric	NBIS	NVDA
Total Return	+61.4%	+26.9%
Annualized Volatility	109.0%	37.2%
Sharpe Ratio	0.93	0.73
Sortino Ratio	1.54	1.09
Calmar Ratio	1.28	1.34
Sterling Ratio	2.08	1.17
Treynor Ratio	0.27	0.14
Ulcer Index	22.64%	10.18%
Max Drawdown	-48.3%	-20.2%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.45	0.67
5% VaR (daily log return)	-10.18%	-3.80%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-13.05%	-4.62%
Skew	0.49	0.15
Excess kurtosis	1.49	0.53
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 9	5 / 7

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-10-14 → 2026-10-13 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 221 rolling 30-day values (from 250 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): NBIS: 252 days/year; NVDA: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

NBIS: 3.81% over 2025-10-14 → 2026-10-13.

NVDA: 3.81% over 2025-10-14 → 2026-10-13.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

NBIS: ≈ -59.4%/yr

NVDA: ≈ -6.9%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Nebius Group vs Nvidia: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: NBIS or NVDA?

NBIS showed higher volatility at 109.0% annualized, compared to 37.2% for NVDA Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does NBIS provide diversification when held with NVDA?

NBIS and NVDA were moderately correlated from October 14, 2025 to October 13, 2026, with an average correlation of 0.47. Correlation alone does not establish portfolio risk reduction or predict selloff behavior. This comparison does not model a combined portfolio.

How bad are the worst 5% days for NBIS vs NVDA?

Over the past year, NBIS's 5% VaR was -10.18% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -13.05% (worst 13 days). NVDA's were -3.80% and -4.62% (worst 13 days).

Do NBIS and NVDA crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=250), when NVDA has a 2σ down day, NBIS also does 0.0% (0/5 days). In the other direction, when NBIS has one, NVDA also does 0.0% (0/6 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: NBIS or NVDA?

NBIS showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 0.93 versus NVDA's 0.73 Over the past year.

Can NBIS and NVDA be combined in a portfolio?

This comparison measures the assets individually, not a combined portfolio. Portfolio risk depends on allocation weights and the joint return path; no portfolio result is calculated here. NBIS had higher annualized volatility (109.0%) in this sample; the effect of an allocation is not measured here.

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Relative Performance of NBIS vs NVDA (Normalized to 100)

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Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Nebius Group vs Nvidia Performance Over Time

Nebius Group vs Nvidia Correlation

Drawdown

Nebius Group vs Nvidia Volatility (NBIS vs NVDA)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of NBIS and NVDA

Sharpe Ratio: NBIS vs. NVDA

Sortino Ratio of NBIS and NVDA

Sortino Ratio: NBIS vs. NVDA

Calmar Ratio of NBIS and NVDA

Calmar Ratio: NBIS vs. NVDA

Sterling Ratio of NBIS and NVDA

Sterling Ratio: NBIS vs. NVDA

Treynor Ratio of NBIS and NVDA

Treynor Ratio: NBIS vs. NVDA

Ulcer Index of NBIS and NVDA

Ulcer Index: NBIS vs. NVDA

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Nebius Group vs. Nvidia

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: NBIS vs. NVDA (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: NBIS vs. NVDA (2σ)

Days when both NBIS and NVDA had a big down day (2σ)

Days when NBIS had a big down day

Days when NVDA had a big down day

Full Comparison of Nebius Group vs. Nvidia (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Nebius Group vs Nvidia: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: NBIS or NVDA?

Does NBIS provide diversification when held with NVDA?

How bad are the worst 5% days for NBIS vs NVDA?

Do NBIS and NVDA crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: NBIS or NVDA?

Can NBIS and NVDA be combined in a portfolio?