NIO vs RIVN: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: NIO or RIVN?

Over the past year, NIO looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (NIO +80.1% vs RIVN +28.3%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (NIO 1.20 vs RIVN 0.63). On risk, NIO was less volatile (NIO 61.8% vs RIVN 63.3%), RIVN had a smaller max drawdown (RIVN -38.8% vs NIO -43.7%), and RIVN had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of RIVN -6.72% vs NIO -7.29%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: NIO or RIVN?

Over the past year, NIO outperformed (+80.1% vs +28.3%) with a Sharpe ratio of 1.20.

Total Return

NIO WIN +80.1%

RIVN +28.3%

Sharpe Ratio

NIO WIN 1.20

RIVN 0.63

Annualized Volatility

NIO WIN 61.8%

RIVN 63.3%

Max Drawdown

NIO -43.7%

RIVN WIN -38.8%

Analysis period: 2025-04-14 to 2026-04-10

NIO Total Return

↑ +80.1%

RIVN Total Return

↑ +28.3%

Relative Performance of NIO vs RIVN (Normalized to 100)

NIO RIVN

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: NIO delivered a +80.1% total return, while RIVN returned +28.3% over the same period. NIO outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): NIO had a higher Sharpe (1.20 vs 0.63), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): RIVN was more volatile, with 63.3% annualized volatility, versus 61.8% for NIO.
Maximum Drawdown: RIVN's maximum drawdown was -38.8%, while NIO experienced a deeper drawdown of -43.7%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), NIO's VaR was -5.44% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -7.29%; RIVN's were -5.37% and -6.72%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: NIO 0.40 vs RIVN 1.83. Excess kurtosis: NIO 0.81 vs RIVN 8.85. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): NIO 6/6, RIVN 4/6. Worst day: NIO -10.05% (2025-10-10) vs RIVN -8.11% (2026-03-12). Best day: NIO +15.38% (2026-03-10) vs RIVN +26.64% (2026-02-13).
Risk ratios: Sortino - NIO: 1.98 vs. RIVN: 1.16 , Calmar - NIO: 1.86 vs. RIVN: 0.74 , Sterling - NIO: 3.41 vs. RIVN: 0.83 , Treynor - NIO: 0.57 vs. RIVN: 0.26 , Ulcer Index - NIO: 23.49% vs. RIVN: 21.37%

NIO vs Rivian Automotive Correlation

0.18 Average Correlation

NIO and Rivian Automotive are weakly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.18, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.

For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining NIO and RIVN could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.49
Average (full period)	0.18
Minimum	-0.18
Maximum	0.49

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 14, 2025:

NIO $18,005.54 +80.1%

RIVN $12,826.27 +28.3%

Difference: $5,179.27 (NIO ahead)

NIO and Rivian Automotive: Risk Analysis

NIO experienced its maximum drawdown of -43.7% from 2025-10-02 to 2026-02-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Rivian Automotive experienced its maximum drawdown of -38.8% from 2025-12-19 to 2026-02-05. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of NIO and RIVN

NIO Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.20

RIVN Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.63

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. NIO had a higher Sharpe (1.20 vs 0.63), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of NIO and RIVN

NIO Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.98

RIVN Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.16

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). NIO had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: NIO 37.6% vs RIVN 34.5%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of NIO and RIVN

NIO Calmar Ratio

↑ 1.86

RIVN Calmar Ratio

↑ 0.74

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. NIO posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of NIO and RIVN

NIO Sterling Ratio

↑ 3.41

RIVN Sterling Ratio

↑ 0.83

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). NIO posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of NIO and RIVN

NIO Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.57

RIVN Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.26

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. NIO posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of NIO and RIVN

NIO Ulcer Index

23.49%

RIVN Ulcer Index

21.37%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. RIVN had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): NIO vs. Rivian Automotive

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	NIO	RIVN
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.44%	-5.37%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-7.29% (worst 13 days)	-6.72% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.40	1.83
Excess kurtosis	0.81	8.85
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 6	4 / 6
Worst day	-10.05% (2025-10-10)	-8.11% (2026-03-12)
Best day	+15.38% (2026-03-10)	+26.64% (2026-02-13)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=248). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When RIVN has a big down day, NIO also does

25.0%

1 / 4 days

When NIO has a big down day, RIVN also does

16.7%

1 / 6 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both NIO and RIVN had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	NIO	RIVN
2026-03-20	-7.81%	-7.51%

Days when NIO had a big down day

Date (interval)	NIO	RIVN
2025-08-01 → 2025-08-04	-8.18%	+0.24%
2025-08-12	-8.96%	+0.34%
2025-09-10	-8.92%	-0.22%
2025-10-10	-10.05%	-2.22%
2025-12-31	-7.27%	+0.61%
2026-03-20	-7.81%	-7.51%

Days when RIVN had a big down day

Date (interval)	NIO	RIVN
2025-10-02	+3.14%	-7.39%
2025-11-14	-1.28%	-7.81%
2026-03-12	+1.46%	-8.11%
2026-03-20	-7.81%	-7.51%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

NIO vs Rivian Automotive Volatility (NIO vs RIVN)

NIO Volatility

61.8%

±3.9% daily

RIVN Volatility

63.3%

±3.99% daily

Typical daily swing

NIO

±3.9%

RIVN

±3.99%

NIO's annualized volatility of 61.8% means it typically moves ±3.9% on any given day.

Rivian Automotive's annualized volatility of 63.3% means it typically moves ±3.99% on any given day.

RIVN's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while NIO's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

NIO vs Rivian Automotive Performance Over Time

Metric	NIO	RIVN
30 Days	18.8%	-7.3%
90 Days	40.1%	-19.7%
180 Days	-3.1%	20.5%
1 Year	80.1%	28.3%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of NIO vs. Rivian Automotive (1-Year)

Metric	NIO	RIVN
Total Return	+80.1%	+28.3%
Annualized Volatility	61.8%	63.3%
Sharpe Ratio	1.20	0.63
Sortino Ratio	1.98	1.16
Calmar Ratio	1.86	0.74
Sterling Ratio	3.41	0.83
Treynor Ratio	0.57	0.26
Ulcer Index	23.49%	21.37%
Max Drawdown	-43.7%	-38.8%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.24	0.29
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.44%	-5.37%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-7.29%	-6.72%
Skew	0.40	1.83
Excess kurtosis	0.81	8.85
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 6	4 / 6

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 219 rolling 30-day values (from 248 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): NIO: 252 days/year; RIVN: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

NIO: 4.17% over 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10.

RIVN: 4.17% over 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

NIO: ≈ -19.1%/yr

RIVN: ≈ -20.0%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

NIO vs Rivian Automotive: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: NIO or RIVN?

RIVN showed higher volatility at 63.3% annualized, compared to 61.8% for NIO Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does NIO provide diversification when held with RIVN?

NIO and RIVN are weakly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.18. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.

How bad are the worst 5% days for NIO vs RIVN?

Over the past year, NIO's 5% VaR was -5.44% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -7.29% (worst 13 days). RIVN's were -5.37% and -6.72% (worst 13 days).

Do NIO and RIVN crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=248), when RIVN has a 2σ down day, NIO also does 25.0% (1/4 days). In the other direction, when NIO has one, RIVN also does 16.7% (1/6 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: NIO or RIVN?

NIO showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.20 versus RIVN's 0.63 Over the past year.

Can NIO and RIVN be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. RIVN's higher volatility (63.3%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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