We are seeing the emergence of "NVIDIA stack" vs. "Google stack" emerge for the AI and tech industry. Here is how these titans line up against each other.
Cite This Comparison
"Nvidia vs Google (NVDA vs GOOG): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 9, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/nvda-vs-goog Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-13 to 2026-01-09
Relative Performance of NVDA vs GOOG (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: NVDA delivered a +38.8% total return, while GOOG returned +71.8% over the same period. GOOG outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): GOOG had a higher Sharpe (1.74 vs 0.84), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
- Volatility (Annualized): NVDA was more volatile, with 48.8% annualized volatility, versus 31.9% for GOOG.
- Maximum Drawdown: GOOG's maximum drawdown was -29.3%, while NVDA experienced a deeper drawdown of -35.9%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), NVDA's VaR was -4.50% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -7.44%; GOOG's were -2.93% and -4.29%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: NVDA -0.54 vs GOOG 0.14. Excess kurtosis: NVDA 8.46 vs GOOG 3.64. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): NVDA 7/2, GOOG 6/3. Worst day: NVDA -18.59% (2025-01-27) vs GOOG -7.80% (2025-05-07). Best day: NVDA +17.16% (2025-04-09) vs GOOG +9.42% (2025-04-09).
Nvidia vs Google Correlation
Nvidia and Google are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.39, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.
For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.33 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.39 | |
| Minimum | -0.09 | |
| Maximum | 0.91 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 13, 2025:
Difference: $3,305.41 (GOOG ahead)
Nvidia and Google: Risk Analysis
Nvidia experienced its maximum drawdown of -35.9% from 2025-01-23 to 2025-04-04. It took 81 days to recover.
Google experienced its maximum drawdown of -29.3% from 2025-02-04 to 2025-04-08. It took 139 days to recover.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of NVDA and GOOG
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. GOOG had a higher Sharpe (1.74 vs 0.84), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of NVDA and GOOG
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. GOOG had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: NVDA 37.6% vs GOOG 21.0%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: Nvidia vs. Google
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
| Metric (1y) | NVDA | GOOG |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -4.50% | -2.93% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -7.44% (worst 13 days) | -4.29% (worst 13 days) |
| Skew | -0.54 | 0.14 |
| Excess kurtosis | 8.46 | 3.64 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 7 / 2 | 6 / 3 |
| Worst day | -18.59% (2025-01-27) | -7.80% (2025-05-07) |
| Best day | +17.16% (2025-04-09) | +9.42% (2025-04-09) |
Downside co-moves (2σ)
Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both NVDA and GOOG had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | NVDA | GOOG |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 → 2025-01-27 | -16.97% | -4.03% |
| 2025-04-03 | -7.81% | -3.92% |
Days when NVDA had a big down day
| Date (interval) | NVDA | GOOG |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 → 2025-01-27 | -16.97% | -4.03% |
| 2025-02-27 | -8.48% | -2.57% |
| 2025-02-28 → 2025-03-03 | -8.69% | -2.07% |
| 2025-04-03 | -7.81% | -3.92% |
| 2025-04-04 | -7.36% | -3.20% |
| 2025-04-10 | -5.91% | -3.53% |
| 2025-04-16 | -6.87% | -2.00% |
Days when GOOG had a big down day
| Date (interval) | NVDA | GOOG |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 → 2025-01-27 | -16.97% | -4.03% |
| 2025-02-05 | +5.21% | -6.94% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -5.07% | -4.40% |
| 2025-03-28 | -1.58% | -4.89% |
| 2025-04-03 | -7.81% | -3.92% |
| 2025-05-07 | +3.10% | -7.51% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Nvidia vs Google Volatility (NVDA vs GOOG)
Nvidia's annualized volatility of 48.8% means it typically moves ±3.08% on any given day.
Google's annualized volatility of 31.9% means it typically moves ±2.01% on any given day.
NVDA's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while GOOG's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Nvidia vs Google Performance Over Time
| Metric | NVDA | GOOG |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | 0.6% | 2.5% |
| 90 Days | 0.9% | 38.7% |
| 180 Days | 12.1% | 81.8% |
| 1 Year | 38.8% | 71.8% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Nvidia vs. Google (1-Year)
| Metric | NVDA | GOOG |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | +38.8% | +71.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 48.8% | 31.9% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.84 | 1.74 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.09 | 2.65 |
| Max Drawdown | -35.9% | -29.3% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -4.50% | -2.93% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -7.44% | -4.29% |
| Skew | -0.54 | 0.14 |
| Excess kurtosis | 8.46 | 3.64 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 7 / 2 | 6 / 3 |
Nvidia vs Google: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: NVDA or GOOG?
NVDA showed higher volatility at 48.8% annualized, compared to 31.9% for GOOG Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does NVDA provide diversification when held with GOOG?
NVDA and GOOG are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.39. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.
How bad are the worst 5% days for NVDA vs GOOG?
Over the past year, NVDA's 5% VaR was -4.50% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -7.44% (worst 13 days). GOOG's were -2.93% and -4.29% (worst 13 days).
Do NVDA and GOOG crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=249), when GOOG has a 2σ down day, NVDA also does 33.3% (2/6 days). In the other direction, when NVDA has one, GOOG also does 28.6% (2/7 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: NVDA or GOOG?
GOOG showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.74 versus NVDA's 0.84 Over the past year.
Can NVDA and GOOG be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. NVDA's higher volatility (48.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.