NVDA vs QQQ: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: NVDA or QQQ?

Over the past year, NVDA looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (NVDA +70.4% vs QQQ +34.0%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (NVDA 1.61 vs QQQ 1.59). On risk, QQQ was less volatile (QQQ 17.0% vs NVDA 34.9%), QQQ had a smaller max drawdown (QQQ -12.1% vs NVDA -20.2%), and QQQ had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of QQQ -2.31% vs NVDA -4.52%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: NVDA or QQQ?

Over the past year, NVDA outperformed (+70.4% vs +34.0%) with a Sharpe ratio of 1.61.

Total Return

NVDA WIN +70.4%

QQQ +34.0%

Sharpe Ratio

NVDA WIN 1.61

QQQ 1.59

Annualized Volatility

NVDA 34.9%

QQQ WIN 17.0%

Max Drawdown

NVDA -20.2%

QQQ WIN -12.1%

Analysis period: 2025-04-14 to 2026-04-10

NVDA Total Return

↑ +70.4%

QQQ Total Return

↑ +34.0%

Relative Performance of NVDA vs QQQ (Normalized to 100)

NVDA QQQ

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: NVDA delivered a +70.4% total return, while QQQ returned +34.0% over the same period. NVDA outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): NVDA had a higher Sharpe (1.61 vs 1.59), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): NVDA was more volatile, with 34.9% annualized volatility, versus 17.0% for QQQ.
Maximum Drawdown: QQQ's maximum drawdown was -12.1%, while NVDA experienced a deeper drawdown of -20.2%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), NVDA's VaR was -3.56% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -4.52%; QQQ's were -1.88% and -2.31%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: NVDA -0.11 vs QQQ -0.11. Excess kurtosis: NVDA 0.56 vs QQQ 1.30. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): NVDA 8/6, QQQ 9/7. Worst day: NVDA -6.87% (2025-04-16) vs QQQ -3.47% (2025-10-10). Best day: NVDA +7.87% (2026-02-06) vs QQQ +4.07% (2025-05-12).
Risk ratios: Sortino - NVDA: 2.44 vs. QQQ: 2.37 , Calmar - NVDA: 3.54 vs. QQQ: 2.86 , Sterling - NVDA: 3.98 vs. QQQ: 2.51 , Treynor - NVDA: 0.31 vs. QQQ: 0.22 , Ulcer Index - NVDA: 8.11% vs. QQQ: 3.18%

Nvidia vs Nasdaq 100 Correlation

0.70 Average Correlation

Nvidia and Nasdaq 100 are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.70, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both NVDA and QQQ provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.83
Average (full period)	0.70
Minimum	0.51
Maximum	0.86

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 14, 2025:

NVDA $17,041.29 +70.4%

QQQ $13,404.73 +34.0%

Difference: $3,636.56 (NVDA ahead)

Nvidia and Nasdaq 100: Risk Analysis

Nvidia experienced its maximum drawdown of -20.2% from 2025-10-29 to 2026-03-30. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Nasdaq 100 experienced its maximum drawdown of -12.1% from 2025-10-29 to 2026-03-30. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of NVDA and QQQ

NVDA Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.61

QQQ Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.59

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. NVDA had a higher Sharpe (1.61 vs 1.59), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of NVDA and QQQ

NVDA Sortino Ratio

↑ 2.44

QQQ Sortino Ratio

↑ 2.37

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). NVDA had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: NVDA 23.0% vs QQQ 11.4%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of NVDA and QQQ

NVDA Calmar Ratio

↑ 3.54

QQQ Calmar Ratio

↑ 2.86

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. NVDA posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of NVDA and QQQ

NVDA Sterling Ratio

↑ 3.98

QQQ Sterling Ratio

↑ 2.51

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). NVDA posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of NVDA and QQQ

NVDA Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.31

QQQ Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.22

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. NVDA posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of NVDA and QQQ

NVDA Ulcer Index

8.11%

QQQ Ulcer Index

3.18%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. QQQ had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Nvidia vs. Nasdaq 100

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	NVDA	QQQ
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.56%	-1.88%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-4.52% (worst 13 days)	-2.31% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.11	-0.11
Excess kurtosis	0.56	1.30
2σ tail days (down / up)	8 / 6	9 / 7
Worst day	-6.87% (2025-04-16)	-3.47% (2025-10-10)
Best day	+7.87% (2026-02-06)	+4.07% (2025-05-12)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=248). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When QQQ has a big down day, NVDA also does

55.6%

5 / 9 days

When NVDA has a big down day, QQQ also does

62.5%

5 / 8 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both NVDA and QQQ had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	NVDA	QQQ
2025-04-16	-6.87%	-3.02%
2025-04-17 → 2025-04-21	-4.51%	-2.47%
2025-10-10	-4.89%	-3.47%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-4.38%	-2.12%
2026-03-26	-4.16%	-2.39%

Days when NVDA had a big down day

Date (interval)	NVDA	QQQ
2025-04-16	-6.87%	-3.02%
2025-04-17 → 2025-04-21	-4.51%	-2.47%
2025-10-10	-4.89%	-3.47%
2025-10-14	-4.40%	-0.67%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-4.38%	-2.12%
2026-02-26	-5.46%	-1.21%
2026-02-27	-4.16%	-0.32%
2026-03-26	-4.16%	-2.39%

Days when QQQ had a big down day

Date (interval)	NVDA	QQQ
2025-04-16	-6.87%	-3.02%
2025-04-17 → 2025-04-21	-4.51%	-2.47%
2025-10-10	-4.89%	-3.47%
2025-11-04	-3.96%	-2.03%
2025-11-13	-3.58%	-2.04%
2025-11-20	-3.15%	-2.37%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-4.38%	-2.12%
2026-02-12	-1.64%	-2.03%
2026-03-26	-4.16%	-2.39%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Nvidia vs Nasdaq 100 Volatility (NVDA vs QQQ)

NVDA Volatility

34.9%

±2.2% daily

QQQ Volatility

17.0%

±1.07% daily

Typical daily swing

NVDA

±2.2%

QQQ

±1.07%

Nvidia's annualized volatility of 34.9% means it typically moves ±2.2% on any given day.

Nasdaq 100's annualized volatility of 17.0% means it typically moves ±1.07% on any given day.

NVDA's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while QQQ's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Nvidia vs Nasdaq 100 Performance Over Time

Metric	NVDA	QQQ
30 Days	1.4%	0.6%
90 Days	2%	-2.5%
180 Days	3%	3.8%
1 Year	70.4%	34%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Nvidia vs. Nasdaq 100 (1-Year)

Metric	NVDA	QQQ
Total Return	+70.4%	+34.0%
Annualized Volatility	34.9%	17.0%
Sharpe Ratio	1.61	1.59
Sortino Ratio	2.44	2.37
Calmar Ratio	3.54	2.86
Sterling Ratio	3.98	2.51
Treynor Ratio	0.31	0.22
Ulcer Index	8.11%	3.18%
Max Drawdown	-20.2%	-12.1%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.62	0.95
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.56%	-1.88%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-4.52%	-2.31%
Skew	-0.11	-0.11
Excess kurtosis	0.56	1.30
2σ tail days (down / up)	8 / 6	9 / 7

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 219 rolling 30-day values (from 248 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): NVDA: 252 days/year; QQQ: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

NVDA: 4.17% over 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10.

QQQ: 4.17% over 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

NVDA: ≈ -6.1%/yr

QQQ: ≈ -1.4%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Nvidia vs Nasdaq 100: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: NVDA or QQQ?

NVDA showed higher volatility at 34.9% annualized, compared to 17.0% for QQQ Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does NVDA provide diversification when held with QQQ?

NVDA and QQQ are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.70. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for NVDA vs QQQ?

Over the past year, NVDA's 5% VaR was -3.56% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -4.52% (worst 13 days). QQQ's were -1.88% and -2.31% (worst 13 days).

Do NVDA and QQQ crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=248), when QQQ has a 2σ down day, NVDA also does 55.6% (5/9 days). In the other direction, when NVDA has one, QQQ also does 62.5% (5/8 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: NVDA or QQQ?

NVDA showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.61 versus QQQ's 1.59 Over the past year.

Can NVDA and QQQ be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. NVDA's higher volatility (34.9%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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