Palantir Technologies vs Bitcoin (PLTR vs BTC) 2026: Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: PLTR or BTC?

Over the past year, PLTR looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (PLTR +13.4% vs BTC -32.9%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (PLTR 0.44 vs BTC -0.78). On risk, BTC was less volatile (BTC 43.8% vs PLTR 59.9%), PLTR had a smaller max drawdown (PLTR -48.2% vs BTC -53.0%), and BTC had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of BTC -6.51% vs PLTR -7.56%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Returns shown in USD.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: PLTR or BTC?

Over the past year, PLTR outperformed BTC. PLTR returned +13.4% compared with BTC’s -32.9%. PLTR had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.44 versus BTC’s -0.78. BTC was less volatile than PLTR, but PLTR had a smaller max drawdown than BTC.

Total Return

PLTR +13.4%

BTC -32.9%

Sharpe Ratio

PLTR 0.44

BTC -0.78

Annualized Volatility

PLTR 59.9%

BTC 43.8%

Max Drawdown

PLTR -48.2%

BTC -53.0%

Metric winners: Total Return: PLTR; Sharpe Ratio: PLTR; Annualized Volatility: BTC (less volatile); Max Drawdown: PLTR (smaller drawdown).

PLTR Total Return

↑ +13.4%

BTC Total Return

↓ -32.9%

Relative Performance of PLTR vs BTC (Normalized to 100)

PLTR BTC

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: PLTR delivered a +13.4% total return, while BTC returned -32.9% over the same period. PLTR outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.78) while PLTR was positive (0.44), indicating PLTR had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): PLTR was more volatile, with 59.9% annualized volatility, versus 43.8% for BTC.
Maximum Drawdown: PLTR's maximum drawdown was -48.2%, while BTC experienced a deeper drawdown of -53.0%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), PLTR's VaR was -6.29% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -7.56%; BTC's were -4.57% and -6.51%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: PLTR 1.16 vs BTC -0.35. Excess kurtosis: PLTR 9.23 vs BTC 4.01. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): PLTR 5/6, BTC 6/6. Worst day: PLTR -11.62% (2026-02-04) vs BTC -14.07% (2026-02-05). Best day: PLTR +29.45% (2026-08-04) vs BTC +11.94% (2026-02-06).
Risk ratios: Sortino - PLTR: 0.70 vs. BTC: -1.07 , Calmar - PLTR: 0.28 vs. BTC: -0.62 , Sterling - PLTR: 0.20 vs. BTC: -0.69 , Treynor - PLTR: 0.14 vs. BTC: -0.22 , Ulcer Index - PLTR: 25.67% vs. BTC: 36.12%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on August 22, 2025:

PLTR $11,335.52 +13.4%

BTC $6,710.75 -32.9%

Difference: $4,624.77 (PLTR ahead)

Palantir Technologies vs Bitcoin Performance Over Time

Metric	PLTR	BTC
30 Days	44.4%	18.7%
90 Days	31.5%	3.9%
180 Days	33.1%	15.4%
1 Year	13.4%	-32.9%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Palantir Technologies vs Bitcoin Correlation

Average Correlation

moderately correlated

0.37

Current (30-day) 0.11

30-day rolling range +0.01 to +0.65

Palantir Technologies and Bitcoin are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.37, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.11
Average (full period)	0.37
Minimum (30-day rolling)	0.01
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.65

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

PLTR

-48.2%

BTC

-53.0%

Palantir Technologies experienced its maximum drawdown of -48.2% from 2025-11-03 to 2026-06-25. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -53% from 2025-10-06 to 2026-06-30. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Palantir Technologies vs Bitcoin Volatility (PLTR vs BTC)

PLTR Volatility

59.9%

±3.78% 1-day vol

BTC Volatility

43.8%

±2.76% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

PLTR

±3.78%

BTC

±2.76%

Palantir Technologies's 59.9% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.78% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Bitcoin's 43.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±2.76% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

PLTR had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; BTC was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of PLTR and BTC

Sharpe Ratio: PLTR vs. BTC

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.78) while PLTR was positive (0.44), indicating PLTR had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of PLTR and BTC

Sortino Ratio: PLTR vs. BTC

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). PLTR had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: PLTR 37.4% vs BTC 32.1%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of PLTR and BTC

Calmar Ratio: PLTR vs. BTC

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. PLTR posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of PLTR and BTC

Sterling Ratio: PLTR vs. BTC

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). PLTR posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of PLTR and BTC

Treynor Ratio: PLTR vs. BTC

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. PLTR posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of PLTR and BTC

Ulcer Index: PLTR vs. BTC

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. PLTR had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Palantir Technologies vs. Bitcoin

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: PLTR vs. BTC (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	PLTR	BTC
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.29%	-4.57%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-7.56% (worst 13 days)	-6.51% (worst 13 days)
Skew	1.16	-0.35
Excess kurtosis	9.23	4.01
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 6	6 / 6
Worst day	-11.62% (2026-02-04)	-14.07% (2026-02-05)
Best day	+29.45% (2026-08-04)	+11.94% (2026-02-06)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=250). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: PLTR vs. BTC (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both PLTR and BTC crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both PLTR and BTC had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when PLTR had a big down day

Date (interval)	PLTR	BTC
2025-10-03	-7.47%	+1.48%
2025-11-04	-7.94%	-4.67%
2026-02-04	-11.62%	-3.40%
2026-04-09	-7.30%	+1.02%
2026-04-23	-7.24%	+0.05%

Days when BTC had a big down day

Date (interval)	PLTR	BTC
2025-08-25	-0.99%	-5.81%
2025-10-10	-5.41%	-7.13%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-1.42%	-7.44%
2026-01-30 → 2026-02-02	+0.80%	-6.45%
2026-02-05	-6.83%	-14.07%
2026-06-02	-5.28%	-6.44%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Palantir Technologies vs. Bitcoin (1-Year)

Metric	PLTR	BTC
Total Return	+13.4%	-32.9%
Annualized Volatility	59.9%	43.8%
Sharpe Ratio	0.44	-0.78
Sortino Ratio	0.70	-1.07
Calmar Ratio	0.28	-0.62
Sterling Ratio	0.20	-0.69
Treynor Ratio	0.14	-0.22
Ulcer Index	25.67%	36.12%
Max Drawdown	-48.2%	-53.0%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.43	0.51
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.29%	-4.57%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-7.56%	-6.51%
Skew	1.16	-0.35
Excess kurtosis	9.23	4.01
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 6	6 / 6

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-08-22 → 2026-08-21 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 221 rolling 30-day values (from 250 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): PLTR: 252 days/year; BTC: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

PLTR: 3.81% over 2025-08-22 → 2026-08-21.

BTC: 3.81% over 2025-08-22 → 2026-08-21.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

PLTR: ≈ -17.9%/yr

BTC: ≈ -9.6%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Palantir Technologies vs Bitcoin: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: PLTR or BTC?

PLTR showed higher volatility at 59.9% annualized, compared to 43.8% for BTC Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does PLTR provide diversification when held with BTC?

PLTR and BTC are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.37. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for PLTR vs BTC?

Over the past year, PLTR's 5% VaR was -6.29% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -7.56% (worst 13 days). BTC's were -4.57% and -6.51% (worst 13 days).

Do PLTR and BTC crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=250), when BTC has a 2σ down day, PLTR also does 0.0% (0/6 days). In the other direction, when PLTR has one, BTC also does 0.0% (0/5 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: PLTR or BTC?

BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.78) while PLTR was positive (0.44) Over the past year, indicating PLTR had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can PLTR and BTC be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. PLTR's higher volatility (59.9%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: PLTR or BTC?

Share This Comparison of PLTR vs BTC

Relative Performance of PLTR vs BTC (Normalized to 100)

Trade PLTR or BTC

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Palantir Technologies vs Bitcoin Performance Over Time

Palantir Technologies vs Bitcoin Correlation

Drawdown

Palantir Technologies vs Bitcoin Volatility (PLTR vs BTC)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of PLTR and BTC

Sharpe Ratio: PLTR vs. BTC

Sortino Ratio of PLTR and BTC

Sortino Ratio: PLTR vs. BTC

Calmar Ratio of PLTR and BTC

Calmar Ratio: PLTR vs. BTC

Sterling Ratio of PLTR and BTC

Sterling Ratio: PLTR vs. BTC

Treynor Ratio of PLTR and BTC

Treynor Ratio: PLTR vs. BTC

Ulcer Index of PLTR and BTC

Ulcer Index: PLTR vs. BTC

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Palantir Technologies vs. Bitcoin

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: PLTR vs. BTC (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: PLTR vs. BTC (2σ)

Days when both PLTR and BTC had a big down day (2σ)

Days when PLTR had a big down day

Days when BTC had a big down day

Full Comparison of Palantir Technologies vs. Bitcoin (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Palantir Technologies vs Bitcoin: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: PLTR or BTC?

Does PLTR provide diversification when held with BTC?

How bad are the worst 5% days for PLTR vs BTC?

Do PLTR and BTC crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: PLTR or BTC?

Can PLTR and BTC be combined in a portfolio?