Cite This Comparison
"Riot Platforms vs Marathon Digital (RIOT vs MARA): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 9, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/riot-vs-mara Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-13 to 2026-01-09
Relative Performance of RIOT vs MARA (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: RIOT delivered a +30.2% total return, while MARA returned -40.5% over the same period. RIOT outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): MARA had a negative Sharpe (-0.33) while RIOT was positive (0.68), indicating RIOT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
- Volatility (Annualized): RIOT was more volatile, with 81.2% annualized volatility, versus 78.8% for MARA.
- Maximum Drawdown: RIOT's maximum drawdown was -53.5%, while MARA experienced a deeper drawdown of -60.7%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), RIOT's VaR was -8.36% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -11.07%; MARA's were -8.10% and -10.72%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: RIOT -0.25 vs MARA 0.21. Excess kurtosis: RIOT 0.60 vs MARA 1.38. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): RIOT 7/6, MARA 8/9. Worst day: RIOT -19.54% (2025-08-01) vs MARA -17.78% (2025-03-10). Best day: RIOT +12.39% (2025-04-22) vs MARA +16.56% (2025-03-24).
Riot Platforms vs Marathon Digital Correlation
Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.74, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.
For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both RIOT and MARA provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.78 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.74 | |
| Minimum | 0.43 | |
| Maximum | 0.91 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 13, 2025:
Difference: $7,070.82 (RIOT ahead)
Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital: Risk Analysis
Riot Platforms experienced its maximum drawdown of -53.5% from 2025-01-24 to 2025-04-21. It took 88 days to recover.
Marathon Digital experienced its maximum drawdown of -60.7% from 2025-10-15 to 2025-12-31. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of RIOT and MARA
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. MARA had a negative Sharpe (-0.33) while RIOT was positive (0.68), indicating RIOT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of RIOT and MARA
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. RIOT had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: RIOT 51.2% vs MARA 48.6%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: Riot Platforms vs. Marathon Digital
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
| Metric (1y) | RIOT | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -8.36% | -8.10% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -11.07% (worst 13 days) | -10.72% (worst 13 days) |
| Skew | -0.25 | 0.21 |
| Excess kurtosis | 0.60 | 1.38 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 7 / 6 | 8 / 9 |
| Worst day | -19.54% (2025-08-01) | -17.78% (2025-03-10) |
| Best day | +12.39% (2025-04-22) | +16.56% (2025-03-24) |
Downside co-moves (2σ)
Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both RIOT and MARA had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | RIOT | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.68% | -16.29% |
| 2025-10-16 | -11.66% | -11.27% |
| 2025-11-13 | -10.22% | -11.31% |
Days when RIOT had a big down day
| Date (interval) | RIOT | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 → 2025-01-27 | -15.44% | -8.53% |
| 2025-02-21 | -9.83% | -8.09% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.68% | -16.29% |
| 2025-08-01 | -17.75% | -3.61% |
| 2025-10-16 | -11.66% | -11.27% |
| 2025-11-13 | -10.22% | -11.31% |
| 2025-12-12 → 2025-12-15 | -10.39% | -7.12% |
Days when MARA had a big down day
| Date (interval) | RIOT | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-25 | -6.71% | -10.62% |
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -9.68% | -16.29% |
| 2025-04-03 | -8.98% | -9.58% |
| 2025-05-02 → 2025-05-05 | -5.84% | -9.60% |
| 2025-05-28 | -8.32% | -9.61% |
| 2025-07-23 | +0.49% | -11.62% |
| 2025-10-16 | -11.66% | -11.27% |
| 2025-11-13 | -10.22% | -11.31% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Riot Platforms vs Marathon Digital Volatility (RIOT vs MARA)
Riot Platforms's annualized volatility of 81.2% means it typically moves ±5.11% on any given day.
Marathon Digital's annualized volatility of 78.8% means it typically moves ±4.96% on any given day.
RIOT's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while MARA's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Riot Platforms vs Marathon Digital Performance Over Time
| Metric | RIOT | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | -1.6% | -14.3% |
| 90 Days | -27.1% | -45.2% |
| 180 Days | 23.3% | -46.6% |
| 1 Year | 30.2% | -40.5% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Riot Platforms vs. Marathon Digital (1-Year)
| Metric | RIOT | MARA |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | +30.2% | -40.5% |
| Annualized Volatility | 81.2% | 78.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.68 | -0.33 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.08 | -0.54 |
| Max Drawdown | -53.5% | -60.7% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -8.36% | -8.10% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -11.07% | -10.72% |
| Skew | -0.25 | 0.21 |
| Excess kurtosis | 0.60 | 1.38 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 7 / 6 | 8 / 9 |
Riot Platforms vs Marathon Digital: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: RIOT or MARA?
RIOT showed higher volatility at 81.2% annualized, compared to 78.8% for MARA Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does RIOT provide diversification when held with MARA?
RIOT and MARA are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.74. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.
How bad are the worst 5% days for RIOT vs MARA?
Over the past year, RIOT's 5% VaR was -8.36% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -11.07% (worst 13 days). MARA's were -8.10% and -10.72% (worst 13 days).
Do RIOT and MARA crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=249), when MARA has a 2σ down day, RIOT also does 37.5% (3/8 days). In the other direction, when RIOT has one, MARA also does 42.9% (3/7 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: RIOT or MARA?
MARA had a negative Sharpe (-0.33) while RIOT was positive (0.68) Over the past year, indicating RIOT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.
Can RIOT and MARA be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. RIOT's higher volatility (81.2%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.