RKLB vs LUNR: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: RKLB or LUNR?

Over the past year, RKLB looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (RKLB +255.7% vs LUNR +204.9%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (RKLB 1.91 vs LUNR 1.55). On risk, RKLB was less volatile (RKLB 83.6% vs LUNR 103.1%), LUNR had a smaller max drawdown (LUNR -41.9% vs RKLB -43.0%), and RKLB had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of RKLB -11.00% vs LUNR -11.64%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: RKLB or LUNR?

Over the past year, RKLB outperformed (+255.7% vs +204.9%) with a Sharpe ratio of 1.91.

Total Return

RKLB WIN +255.7%

LUNR +204.9%

Sharpe Ratio

RKLB WIN 1.91

LUNR 1.55

Annualized Volatility

RKLB WIN 83.6%

LUNR 103.1%

Max Drawdown

RKLB -43.0%

LUNR WIN -41.9%

Analysis period: 2025-04-14 to 2026-04-10

RKLB Total Return

↑ +255.7%

LUNR Total Return

↑ +204.9%

Relative Performance of RKLB vs LUNR (Normalized to 100)

RKLB LUNR

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: RKLB delivered a +255.7% total return, while LUNR returned +204.9% over the same period. RKLB outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): RKLB had a higher Sharpe (1.91 vs 1.55), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): LUNR was more volatile, with 103.1% annualized volatility, versus 83.6% for RKLB.
Maximum Drawdown: LUNR's maximum drawdown was -41.9%, while RKLB experienced a deeper drawdown of -43.0%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), RKLB's VaR was -9.44% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -11.00%; LUNR's were -8.87% and -11.64%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: RKLB -0.15 vs LUNR 0.64. Excess kurtosis: RKLB 0.17 vs LUNR 2.57. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): RKLB 9/4, LUNR 4/7. Worst day: RKLB -12.57% (2025-09-16) vs LUNR -15.93% (2026-02-25). Best day: RKLB +17.69% (2025-12-19) vs LUNR +37.70% (2025-12-19).
Risk ratios: Sortino - RKLB: 2.98 vs. LUNR: 2.69 , Calmar - RKLB: 6.07 vs. LUNR: 4.99 , Sterling - RKLB: 12.41 vs. LUNR: 7.63 , Treynor - RKLB: 0.57 vs. LUNR: 0.49 , Ulcer Index - RKLB: 17.75% vs. LUNR: 19.82%

Rocket Lab USA vs Intuitive Machines Correlation

0.65 Average Correlation

Rocket Lab USA and Intuitive Machines are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.65, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both RKLB and LUNR provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.77
Average (full period)	0.65
Minimum	0.24
Maximum	0.87

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 14, 2025:

RKLB $35,572.4 +255.7%

LUNR $30,491.59 +204.9%

Difference: $5,080.81 (RKLB ahead)

Rocket Lab USA and Intuitive Machines: Risk Analysis

Rocket Lab USA experienced its maximum drawdown of -43% from 2025-10-15 to 2025-11-20. It took 29 days to recover.

Intuitive Machines experienced its maximum drawdown of -41.9% from 2025-10-14 to 2025-11-20. It took 29 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of RKLB and LUNR

RKLB Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.91

LUNR Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.55

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. RKLB had a higher Sharpe (1.91 vs 1.55), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of RKLB and LUNR

RKLB Sortino Ratio

↑ 2.98

LUNR Sortino Ratio

↑ 2.69

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). RKLB had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: RKLB 53.5% vs LUNR 59.5%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of RKLB and LUNR

RKLB Calmar Ratio

↑ 6.07

LUNR Calmar Ratio

↑ 4.99

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. RKLB posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of RKLB and LUNR

RKLB Sterling Ratio

↑ 12.41

LUNR Sterling Ratio

↑ 7.63

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). RKLB posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of RKLB and LUNR

RKLB Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.57

LUNR Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.49

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. RKLB posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of RKLB and LUNR

RKLB Ulcer Index

17.75%

LUNR Ulcer Index

19.82%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. RKLB had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Rocket Lab USA vs. Intuitive Machines

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	RKLB	LUNR
5% VaR (daily log return)	-9.44%	-8.87%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-11.00% (worst 13 days)	-11.64% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.15	0.64
Excess kurtosis	0.17	2.57
2σ tail days (down / up)	9 / 4	4 / 7
Worst day	-12.57% (2025-09-16)	-15.93% (2026-02-25)
Best day	+17.69% (2025-12-19)	+37.70% (2025-12-19)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=248). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When LUNR has a big down day, RKLB also does

25.0%

1 / 4 days

When RKLB has a big down day, LUNR also does

11.1%

1 / 9 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both RKLB and LUNR had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	RKLB	LUNR
2026-02-04	-10.04%	-15.30%

Days when RKLB had a big down day

Date (interval)	RKLB	LUNR
2025-05-09	-11.21%	-1.18%
2025-09-03	-11.72%	-2.87%
2025-09-16	-12.57%	+1.22%
2025-11-06	-12.07%	-8.43%
2025-11-20	-9.49%	-8.16%
2025-12-12 → 2025-12-15	-9.89%	-7.10%
2026-02-04	-10.04%	-15.30%
2026-03-18	-11.59%	-4.18%
2026-03-26	-9.52%	-6.42%

Days when LUNR had a big down day

Date (interval)	RKLB	LUNR
2025-08-14	-0.44%	-14.30%
2026-02-04	-10.04%	-15.30%
2026-02-25	+0.33%	-15.93%
2026-03-24	-2.84%	-11.77%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Rocket Lab USA vs Intuitive Machines Volatility (RKLB vs LUNR)

RKLB Volatility

83.6%

±5.27% daily

LUNR Volatility

103.1%

±6.49% daily

Typical daily swing

RKLB

±5.27%

LUNR

±6.49%

Rocket Lab USA's annualized volatility of 83.6% means it typically moves ±5.27% on any given day.

Intuitive Machines's annualized volatility of 103.1% means it typically moves ±6.49% on any given day.

LUNR's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while RKLB's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Rocket Lab USA vs Intuitive Machines Performance Over Time

Metric	RKLB	LUNR
30 Days	-5.4%	27.8%
90 Days	-19.8%	27%
180 Days	5.9%	92.7%
1 Year	255.7%	204.9%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Rocket Lab USA vs. Intuitive Machines (1-Year)

Metric	RKLB	LUNR
Total Return	+255.7%	+204.9%
Annualized Volatility	83.6%	103.1%
Sharpe Ratio	1.91	1.55
Sortino Ratio	2.98	2.69
Calmar Ratio	6.07	4.99
Sterling Ratio	12.41	7.63
Treynor Ratio	0.57	0.49
Ulcer Index	17.75%	19.82%
Max Drawdown	-43.0%	-41.9%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.38	0.42
5% VaR (daily log return)	-9.44%	-8.87%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-11.00%	-11.64%
Skew	-0.15	0.64
Excess kurtosis	0.17	2.57
2σ tail days (down / up)	9 / 4	4 / 7

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 219 rolling 30-day values (from 248 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): RKLB: 252 days/year; LUNR: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

RKLB: 4.17% over 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10.

LUNR: 4.17% over 2025-04-14 → 2026-04-10.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

RKLB: ≈ -34.9%/yr

LUNR: ≈ -53.1%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Rocket Lab USA vs Intuitive Machines: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: RKLB or LUNR?

LUNR showed higher volatility at 103.1% annualized, compared to 83.6% for RKLB Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does RKLB provide diversification when held with LUNR?

RKLB and LUNR are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.65. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for RKLB vs LUNR?

Over the past year, RKLB's 5% VaR was -9.44% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -11.00% (worst 13 days). LUNR's were -8.87% and -11.64% (worst 13 days).

Do RKLB and LUNR crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=248), when LUNR has a 2σ down day, RKLB also does 25.0% (1/4 days). In the other direction, when RKLB has one, LUNR also does 11.1% (1/9 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: RKLB or LUNR?

RKLB showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.91 versus LUNR's 1.55 Over the past year.

Can RKLB and LUNR be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. LUNR's higher volatility (103.1%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary