NuScale Power vs Constellation Energy (SMR vs CEG) 2026: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: SMR or CEG?

Over the past year, CEG looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (CEG +2.3% vs SMR -47.7%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (CEG 0.18 vs SMR -0.14). On risk, CEG was less volatile (CEG 45.0% vs SMR 106.2%), CEG had a smaller max drawdown (CEG -38.8% vs SMR -82.9%), and CEG had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of CEG -6.45% vs SMR -12.45%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: SMR or CEG?

Over the past year, CEG outperformed SMR. CEG returned +2.3% compared with SMR’s -47.7%. CEG had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.18 versus SMR’s -0.14. CEG was less volatile than SMR, and CEG had a smaller max drawdown than SMR.

Total Return

SMR -47.7%

CEG +2.3%

Sharpe Ratio

SMR -0.14

CEG 0.18

Annualized Volatility

SMR 106.2%

CEG 45.0%

Max Drawdown

SMR -82.9%

CEG -38.8%

Metric winners: Total Return: CEG; Sharpe Ratio: CEG; Annualized Volatility: CEG (less volatile); Max Drawdown: CEG (smaller drawdown).

SMR Total Return

↓ -47.7%

CEG Total Return

↑ +2.3%

Relative Performance of SMR vs CEG (Normalized to 100)

SMR CEG

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: SMR delivered a -47.7% total return, while CEG returned +2.3% over the same period. CEG outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): SMR had a negative Sharpe (-0.14) while CEG was positive (0.18), indicating CEG had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): SMR was more volatile, with 106.2% annualized volatility, versus 45.0% for CEG.
Maximum Drawdown: CEG's maximum drawdown was -38.8%, while SMR experienced a deeper drawdown of -82.9%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), SMR's VaR was -10.46% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -12.45%; CEG's were -4.41% and -6.45%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: SMR 0.46 vs CEG -0.35. Excess kurtosis: SMR 0.42 vs CEG 1.18. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): SMR 4/13, CEG 6/7. Worst day: SMR -14.38% (2025-11-06) vs CEG -10.90% (2026-03-20). Best day: SMR +22.69% (2025-09-19) vs CEG +7.09% (2026-04-24).
Risk ratios: Sortino - SMR: -0.21 vs. CEG: 0.26 , Calmar - SMR: -0.58 vs. CEG: 0.06 , Sterling - SMR: -1.77 vs. CEG: -0.07 , Treynor - SMR: -0.04 vs. CEG: 0.06 , Ulcer Index - SMR: 52.69% vs. CEG: 16.85%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on May 14, 2025:

SMR $5,231.04 -47.7%

CEG $10,226.67 +2.3%

Difference: $4,995.63 (CEG ahead)

NuScale Power vs Constellation Energy Performance Over Time

Metric	SMR	CEG
30 Days	30.3%	2.5%
90 Days	-22.9%	6.1%
180 Days	-48.2%	-12.5%
1 Year	-47.7%	2.3%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

NuScale Power vs Constellation Energy Correlation

Average Correlation

moderately correlated

0.37

Current (30-day) 0.27

30-day rolling range +0.06 to +0.66

NuScale Power and Constellation Energy are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.37, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.27
Average (full period)	0.37
Minimum (30-day rolling)	0.06
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.66

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

SMR

-82.9%

CEG

-38.8%

NuScale Power experienced its maximum drawdown of -82.9% from 2025-10-15 to 2026-04-07. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Constellation Energy experienced its maximum drawdown of -38.8% from 2025-10-15 to 2026-02-05. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

NuScale Power vs Constellation Energy Volatility (SMR vs CEG)

SMR Volatility

106.2%

±6.69% 1-day vol

CEG Volatility

45.0%

±2.84% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

SMR

±6.69%

CEG

±2.84%

NuScale Power's 106.2% annualized volatility translates to about ±6.69% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Constellation Energy's 45.0% annualized volatility translates to about ±2.84% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

SMR had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; CEG was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of SMR and CEG

Sharpe Ratio: SMR vs. CEG

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. SMR had a negative Sharpe (-0.14) while CEG was positive (0.18), indicating CEG had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of SMR and CEG

Sortino Ratio: SMR vs. CEG

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). CEG had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: SMR 68.6% vs CEG 31.9%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of SMR and CEG

Calmar Ratio: SMR vs. CEG

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. CEG posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of SMR and CEG

Sterling Ratio: SMR vs. CEG

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). CEG posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of SMR and CEG

Treynor Ratio: SMR vs. CEG

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. CEG posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of SMR and CEG

Ulcer Index: SMR vs. CEG

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. CEG had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): NuScale Power vs. Constellation Energy

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: SMR vs. CEG (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	SMR	CEG
5% VaR (daily log return)	-10.46%	-4.41%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-12.45% (worst 13 days)	-6.45% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.46	-0.35
Excess kurtosis	0.42	1.18
2σ tail days (down / up)	4 / 13	6 / 7
Worst day	-14.38% (2025-11-06)	-10.90% (2026-03-20)
Best day	+22.69% (2025-09-19)	+7.09% (2026-04-24)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: SMR vs. CEG (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both SMR and CEG crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both SMR and CEG had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	SMR	CEG
2025-12-12	-13.57%	-7.03%

Days when SMR had a big down day

Date (interval)	SMR	CEG
2025-10-21	-13.21%	-3.03%
2025-11-04	-12.74%	-3.94%
2025-11-06	-14.38%	-3.29%
2025-12-12	-13.57%	-7.03%

Days when CEG had a big down day

Date (interval)	SMR	CEG
2025-12-12	-13.57%	-7.03%
2025-12-17	-8.12%	-6.74%
2026-01-16	+6.83%	-9.82%
2026-02-04	-9.40%	-6.70%
2026-03-20	-4.59%	-10.90%
2026-03-31	+5.76%	-6.48%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of NuScale Power vs. Constellation Energy (1-Year)

Metric	SMR	CEG
Total Return	-47.7%	+2.3%
Annualized Volatility	106.2%	45.0%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.14	0.18
Sortino Ratio	-0.21	0.26
Calmar Ratio	-0.58	0.06
Sterling Ratio	-1.77	-0.07
Treynor Ratio	-0.04	0.06
Ulcer Index	52.69%	16.85%
Max Drawdown	-82.9%	-38.8%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.43	0.44
5% VaR (daily log return)	-10.46%	-4.41%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-12.45%	-6.45%
Skew	0.46	-0.35
Excess kurtosis	0.42	1.18
2σ tail days (down / up)	4 / 13	6 / 7

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-05-14 → 2026-05-12 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): SMR: 252 days/year; CEG: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

SMR: 4.15% over 2025-05-14 → 2026-05-12.

CEG: 4.15% over 2025-05-14 → 2026-05-12.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

SMR: ≈ -56.4%/yr

CEG: ≈ -10.1%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

NuScale Power vs Constellation Energy: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: SMR or CEG?

SMR showed higher volatility at 106.2% annualized, compared to 45.0% for CEG Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does SMR provide diversification when held with CEG?

SMR and CEG are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.37. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for SMR vs CEG?

Over the past year, SMR's 5% VaR was -10.46% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -12.45% (worst 13 days). CEG's were -4.41% and -6.45% (worst 13 days).

Do SMR and CEG crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when CEG has a 2σ down day, SMR also does 16.7% (1/6 days). In the other direction, when SMR has one, CEG also does 25.0% (1/4 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: SMR or CEG?

SMR had a negative Sharpe (-0.14) while CEG was positive (0.18) Over the past year, indicating CEG had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can SMR and CEG be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. SMR's higher volatility (106.2%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: SMR or CEG?

Share This Comparison of SMR vs CEG

Relative Performance of SMR vs CEG (Normalized to 100)

Trade SMR or CEG

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

NuScale Power vs Constellation Energy Performance Over Time

NuScale Power vs Constellation Energy Correlation

Drawdown

NuScale Power vs Constellation Energy Volatility (SMR vs CEG)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of SMR and CEG

Sharpe Ratio: SMR vs. CEG

Sortino Ratio of SMR and CEG

Sortino Ratio: SMR vs. CEG

Calmar Ratio of SMR and CEG

Calmar Ratio: SMR vs. CEG

Sterling Ratio of SMR and CEG

Sterling Ratio: SMR vs. CEG

Treynor Ratio of SMR and CEG

Treynor Ratio: SMR vs. CEG

Ulcer Index of SMR and CEG

Ulcer Index: SMR vs. CEG

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): NuScale Power vs. Constellation Energy

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: SMR vs. CEG (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: SMR vs. CEG (2σ)

Days when both SMR and CEG had a big down day (2σ)

Days when SMR had a big down day

Days when CEG had a big down day

Full Comparison of NuScale Power vs. Constellation Energy (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

NuScale Power vs Constellation Energy: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: SMR or CEG?

Does SMR provide diversification when held with CEG?

How bad are the worst 5% days for SMR vs CEG?

Do SMR and CEG crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: SMR or CEG?

Can SMR and CEG be combined in a portfolio?