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S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100 (SPY vs QQQ): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2023)

Last updated: December 31, 2023

Gale Finance Team
Written by Gale Finance Team
Sid Kalla
Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder
TL;DR: In 2023, SPY returned +26.7% while QQQ returned +55.9%. QQQ showed better risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe: 2.35). SPY was less volatile (13.1% vs 17.9%).

Analysis period: 2023-01-01 to 2023-12-31

SPY Total Return
+26.7%
QQQ Total Return
+55.9%

Relative Performance of SPY vs QQQ (Normalized to 100)

SPY QQQ

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

  • Total Return: SPY delivered a +26.7% total return, while QQQ returned +55.9% over the same period. QQQ outperformed on total returns.
  • Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): QQQ had a higher Sharpe (2.35 vs 1.55), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
  • Volatility (Annualized): QQQ was more volatile, with 17.9% annualized volatility, versus 13.1% for SPY.
  • Maximum Drawdown: SPY's maximum drawdown was -10.0%, while QQQ experienced a deeper drawdown of -10.8%.

S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100 Correlation

0.92 Average Correlation

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were strongly correlated in 2023. With a correlation of 0.92, these assets tended to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both SPY and QQQ provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric Metric Value
Current (30-day) 0.89
Average (full period) 0.92
Minimum 0.83
Maximum 0.96

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 1, 2023:

SPY $12,672.304 +26.7%
QQQ $15,590.794 +55.9%

Difference: $2,918.49 (QQQ ahead)

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100: Risk Analysis

S&P 500 experienced its maximum drawdown of -10% from 2023-07-31 to 2023-10-27. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Nasdaq 100 experienced its maximum drawdown of -10.8% from 2023-07-18 to 2023-10-26. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of SPY and QQQ

SPY Sharpe Ratio
1.55
QQQ Sharpe Ratio
2.35

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. QQQ had a higher Sharpe (2.35 vs 1.55), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of SPY and QQQ

SPY Sortino Ratio
2.54
QQQ Sortino Ratio
4.06

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. QQQ had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: SPY 8.0% vs QQQ 10.4%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Full Comparison of S&P 500 vs. Nasdaq 100 (2023)

Metric SPY QQQ
Total Return +26.7% +55.9%
Annualized Volatility 13.1% 17.9%
Sharpe Ratio 1.55 2.35
Sortino Ratio 2.54 4.06
Max Drawdown -10.0% -10.8%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500 N/A N/A

S&P 500 vs Nasdaq 100: Frequently Asked Questions

Which had higher volatility: SPY or QQQ?

QQQ showed higher volatility at 17.9% annualized, compared to 13.1% for SPY During 2023. Higher volatility meant larger price swings in both directions.

Did SPY provide diversification when held with QQQ?

SPY and QQQ were strongly correlated in 2023, with an average correlation of 0.92. This strong correlation limited diversification benefits.

Which had better risk-adjusted returns: SPY or QQQ?

QQQ showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 2.35 versus SPY's 1.55 During 2023.

Could SPY and QQQ have been combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing mattered. Their strong correlation provided limited risk reduction since they tended to move together. QQQ's higher volatility (17.9%) meant even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.