VST vs CEG: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: VST or CEG?

Over the past year, VST looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (VST +35.6% vs CEG +31.2%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (VST 0.75 vs CEG 0.71). On risk, CEG was less volatile (CEG 52.4% vs VST 56.5%), VST had a smaller max drawdown (VST -34.5% vs CEG -38.8%), and CEG had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of CEG -7.62% vs VST -8.53%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: VST or CEG?

Over the past year, VST outperformed (+35.6% vs +31.2%) with a Sharpe ratio of 0.75.

Total Return

VST WIN +35.6%

CEG +31.2%

Sharpe Ratio

VST WIN 0.75

CEG 0.71

Annualized Volatility

VST 56.5%

CEG WIN 52.4%

Max Drawdown

VST WIN -34.5%

CEG -38.8%

Analysis period: 2025-02-27 to 2026-02-25

VST Total Return

↑ +35.6%

CEG Total Return

↑ +31.2%

Relative Performance of VST vs CEG (Normalized to 100)

VST CEG

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: VST delivered a +35.6% total return, while CEG returned +31.2% over the same period. VST outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): VST had a higher Sharpe (0.75 vs 0.71), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): VST was more volatile, with 56.5% annualized volatility, versus 52.4% for CEG.
Maximum Drawdown: VST's maximum drawdown was -34.5%, while CEG experienced a deeper drawdown of -38.8%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), VST's VaR was -6.10% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -8.53%; CEG's were -4.87% and -7.62%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: VST -0.38 vs CEG -0.10. Excess kurtosis: VST 2.38 vs CEG 2.61. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): VST 10/4, CEG 9/3. Worst day: VST -14.92% (2025-04-03) vs CEG -11.29% (2025-04-03). Best day: VST +15.49% (2025-04-09) vs CEG +16.50% (2025-04-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - VST: 1.09 vs. CEG: 1.04 , Calmar - VST: 1.04 vs. CEG: 0.81 , Sterling - VST: 1.35 vs. CEG: 0.95 , Treynor - VST: 0.24 vs. CEG: 0.22 , Ulcer Index - VST: 14.73% vs. CEG: 13.88%

Vistra Corp vs Constellation Energy Correlation

0.81 Average Correlation

Vistra Corp and Constellation Energy are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.81, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both VST and CEG provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.82
Average (full period)	0.81
Minimum	0.61
Maximum	0.96

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 27, 2025:

VST $13,561.33 +35.6%

CEG $13,119.12 +31.2%

Difference: $442.21 (VST ahead)

Vistra Corp and Constellation Energy: Risk Analysis

Vistra Corp experienced its maximum drawdown of -34.5% from 2025-09-22 to 2026-02-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Constellation Energy experienced its maximum drawdown of -38.8% from 2025-10-15 to 2026-02-05. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of VST and CEG

VST Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.75

CEG Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.71

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. VST had a higher Sharpe (0.75 vs 0.71), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of VST and CEG

VST Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.09

CEG Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.04

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). VST had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: VST 39.2% vs CEG 35.6%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of VST and CEG

VST Calmar Ratio

↑ 1.04

CEG Calmar Ratio

↑ 0.81

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. VST posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of VST and CEG

VST Sterling Ratio

↑ 1.35

CEG Sterling Ratio

↑ 0.95

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). VST posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of VST and CEG

VST Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.24

CEG Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.22

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. VST posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of VST and CEG

VST Ulcer Index

14.73%

CEG Ulcer Index

13.88%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. CEG had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Vistra Corp vs. Constellation Energy

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	VST	CEG
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.10%	-4.87%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-8.53% (worst 13 days)	-7.62% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.38	-0.10
Excess kurtosis	2.38	2.61
2σ tail days (down / up)	10 / 4	9 / 3
Worst day	-14.92% (2025-04-03)	-11.29% (2025-04-03)
Best day	+15.49% (2025-04-09)	+16.50% (2025-04-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When CEG has a big down day, VST also does

88.9%

8 / 9 days

When VST has a big down day, CEG also does

80.0%

8 / 10 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both VST and CEG had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	VST	CEG
2025-02-28 → 2025-03-03	-7.26%	-7.29%
2025-03-06	-9.82%	-9.43%
2025-04-03	-14.92%	-11.29%
2025-04-04	-9.37%	-10.13%
2025-04-17 → 2025-04-21	-7.71%	-6.81%
2025-12-17	-7.77%	-6.74%
2026-01-16	-7.54%	-9.82%
2026-02-04	-6.85%	-6.70%

Days when VST had a big down day

Date (interval)	VST	CEG
2025-02-28 → 2025-03-03	-7.26%	-7.29%
2025-03-06	-9.82%	-9.43%
2025-04-03	-14.92%	-11.29%
2025-04-04	-9.37%	-10.13%
2025-04-10	-7.42%	-5.09%
2025-04-17 → 2025-04-21	-7.71%	-6.81%
2025-12-17	-7.77%	-6.74%
2026-01-07	-8.81%	-4.50%
2026-01-16	-7.54%	-9.82%
2026-02-04	-6.85%	-6.70%

Days when CEG had a big down day

Date (interval)	VST	CEG
2025-02-28 → 2025-03-03	-7.26%	-7.29%
2025-03-06	-9.82%	-9.43%
2025-04-03	-14.92%	-11.29%
2025-04-04	-9.37%	-10.13%
2025-04-17 → 2025-04-21	-7.71%	-6.81%
2025-12-12	-2.58%	-7.03%
2025-12-17	-7.77%	-6.74%
2026-01-16	-7.54%	-9.82%
2026-02-04	-6.85%	-6.70%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Vistra Corp vs Constellation Energy Volatility (VST vs CEG)

VST Volatility

56.5%

±3.56% daily

CEG Volatility

52.4%

±3.3% daily

Typical daily swing

VST

±3.56%

CEG

±3.3%

Vistra Corp's annualized volatility of 56.5% means it typically moves ±3.56% on any given day.

Constellation Energy's annualized volatility of 52.4% means it typically moves ±3.3% on any given day.

VST's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while CEG's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Vistra Corp vs Constellation Energy Performance Over Time

Metric	VST	CEG
30 Days	10.4%	14.2%
90 Days	-0.7%	-9.3%
180 Days	-7%	5.9%
1 Year	35.6%	31.2%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Vistra Corp vs. Constellation Energy (1-Year)

Metric	VST	CEG
Total Return	+35.6%	+31.2%
Annualized Volatility	56.5%	52.4%
Sharpe Ratio	0.75	0.71
Sortino Ratio	1.09	1.04
Calmar Ratio	1.04	0.81
Sterling Ratio	1.35	0.95
Treynor Ratio	0.24	0.22
Ulcer Index	14.73%	13.88%
Max Drawdown	-34.5%	-38.8%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.47	0.51
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.10%	-4.87%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-8.53%	-7.62%
Skew	-0.38	-0.10
Excess kurtosis	2.38	2.61
2σ tail days (down / up)	10 / 4	9 / 3

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): VST: 252 days/year; CEG: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

VST: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.

CEG: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

VST: ≈ -16.0%/yr

CEG: ≈ -13.7%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Vistra Corp vs Constellation Energy: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: VST or CEG?

VST showed higher volatility at 56.5% annualized, compared to 52.4% for CEG Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does VST provide diversification when held with CEG?

VST and CEG are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.81. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for VST vs CEG?

Over the past year, VST's 5% VaR was -6.10% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -8.53% (worst 13 days). CEG's were -4.87% and -7.62% (worst 13 days).

Do VST and CEG crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when CEG has a 2σ down day, VST also does 88.9% (8/9 days). In the other direction, when VST has one, CEG also does 80.0% (8/10 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: VST or CEG?

VST showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 0.75 versus CEG's 0.71 Over the past year.

Can VST and CEG be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. VST's higher volatility (56.5%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.