VST vs NEE: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: VST or NEE?

Over the past year, NEE looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (NEE +41.4% vs VST +35.6%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (NEE 1.30 vs VST 0.75). On risk, NEE was less volatile (NEE 26.5% vs VST 56.5%), NEE had a smaller max drawdown (NEE -15.8% vs VST -34.5%), and NEE had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of NEE -3.90% vs VST -8.53%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: VST or NEE?

Over the past year, NEE outperformed (+35.6% vs +41.4%) with a Sharpe ratio of 1.30.

Total Return

VST +35.6%

NEE WIN +41.4%

Sharpe Ratio

VST 0.75

NEE WIN 1.30

Annualized Volatility

VST 56.5%

NEE WIN 26.5%

Max Drawdown

VST -34.5%

NEE WIN -15.8%

Analysis period: 2025-02-27 to 2026-02-25

VST Total Return

↑ +35.6%

NEE Total Return

↑ +41.4%

Relative Performance of VST vs NEE (Normalized to 100)

VST NEE

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: VST delivered a +35.6% total return, while NEE returned +41.4% over the same period. NEE outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): NEE had a higher Sharpe (1.30 vs 0.75), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): VST was more volatile, with 56.5% annualized volatility, versus 26.5% for NEE.
Maximum Drawdown: NEE's maximum drawdown was -15.8%, while VST experienced a deeper drawdown of -34.5%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), VST's VaR was -6.10% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -8.53%; NEE's were -2.49% and -3.90%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: VST -0.38 vs NEE -0.57. Excess kurtosis: VST 2.38 vs NEE 3.20. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): VST 10/4, NEE 5/6. Worst day: VST -14.92% (2025-04-03) vs NEE -7.25% (2025-04-04). Best day: VST +15.49% (2025-04-09) vs NEE +5.41% (2025-04-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - VST: 1.09 vs. NEE: 1.87 , Calmar - VST: 1.04 vs. NEE: 2.63 , Sterling - VST: 1.35 vs. NEE: 2.37 , Treynor - VST: 0.24 vs. NEE: 0.98 , Ulcer Index - VST: 14.73% vs. NEE: 6.29%

Vistra Corp vs NextEra Energy Correlation

0.13 Average Correlation

Vistra Corp and NextEra Energy are weakly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.13, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.

For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining VST and NEE could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.06
Average (full period)	0.13
Minimum	-0.44
Maximum	0.49

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 27, 2025:

VST $13,561.33 +35.6%

NEE $14,135.58 +41.4%

Difference: $574.25 (NEE ahead)

Vistra Corp and NextEra Energy: Risk Analysis

Vistra Corp experienced its maximum drawdown of -34.5% from 2025-09-22 to 2026-02-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

NextEra Energy experienced its maximum drawdown of -15.8% from 2025-03-10 to 2025-04-08. It took 101 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of VST and NEE

VST Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.75

NEE Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.30

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. NEE had a higher Sharpe (1.30 vs 0.75), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of VST and NEE

VST Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.09

NEE Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.87

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). NEE had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: VST 39.2% vs NEE 18.4%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of VST and NEE

VST Calmar Ratio

↑ 1.04

NEE Calmar Ratio

↑ 2.63

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. NEE posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of VST and NEE

VST Sterling Ratio

↑ 1.35

NEE Sterling Ratio

↑ 2.37

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). NEE posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of VST and NEE

VST Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.24

NEE Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.98

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. NEE posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of VST and NEE

VST Ulcer Index

14.73%

NEE Ulcer Index

6.29%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. NEE had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Vistra Corp vs. NextEra Energy

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	VST	NEE
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.10%	-2.49%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-8.53% (worst 13 days)	-3.90% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.38	-0.57
Excess kurtosis	2.38	3.20
2σ tail days (down / up)	10 / 4	5 / 6
Worst day	-14.92% (2025-04-03)	-7.25% (2025-04-04)
Best day	+15.49% (2025-04-09)	+5.41% (2025-04-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When NEE has a big down day, VST also does

40.0%

2 / 5 days

When VST has a big down day, NEE also does

20.0%

2 / 10 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both VST and NEE had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	VST	NEE
2025-04-04	-9.37%	-7.25%
2026-01-07	-8.81%	-3.31%

Days when VST had a big down day

Date (interval)	VST	NEE
2025-02-28 → 2025-03-03	-7.26%	+2.07%
2025-03-06	-9.82%	-0.67%
2025-04-03	-14.92%	+2.36%
2025-04-04	-9.37%	-7.25%
2025-04-10	-7.42%	-1.27%
2025-04-17 → 2025-04-21	-7.71%	-2.46%
2025-12-17	-7.77%	-1.27%
2026-01-07	-8.81%	-3.31%
2026-01-16	-7.54%	+1.75%
2026-02-04	-6.85%	+1.29%

Days when NEE had a big down day

Date (interval)	VST	NEE
2025-04-04	-9.37%	-7.25%
2025-05-21	-3.16%	-3.86%
2025-05-22	+1.74%	-6.43%
2025-07-23	+5.83%	-6.09%
2026-01-07	-8.81%	-3.31%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Vistra Corp vs NextEra Energy Volatility (VST vs NEE)

VST Volatility

56.5%

±3.56% daily

NEE Volatility

26.5%

±1.67% daily

Typical daily swing

VST

±3.56%

NEE

±1.67%

Vistra Corp's annualized volatility of 56.5% means it typically moves ±3.56% on any given day.

NextEra Energy's annualized volatility of 26.5% means it typically moves ±1.67% on any given day.

VST's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while NEE's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Vistra Corp vs NextEra Energy Performance Over Time

Metric	VST	NEE
30 Days	10.4%	11.3%
90 Days	-0.7%	11.2%
180 Days	-7%	32.9%
1 Year	35.6%	41.4%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Vistra Corp vs. NextEra Energy (1-Year)

Metric	VST	NEE
Total Return	+35.6%	+41.4%
Annualized Volatility	56.5%	26.5%
Sharpe Ratio	0.75	1.30
Sortino Ratio	1.09	1.87
Calmar Ratio	1.04	2.63
Sterling Ratio	1.35	2.37
Treynor Ratio	0.24	0.98
Ulcer Index	14.73%	6.29%
Max Drawdown	-34.5%	-15.8%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.47	0.17
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.10%	-2.49%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-8.53%	-3.90%
Skew	-0.38	-0.57
Excess kurtosis	2.38	3.20
2σ tail days (down / up)	10 / 4	5 / 6

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): VST: 252 days/year; NEE: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

VST: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.

NEE: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

VST: ≈ -16.0%/yr

NEE: ≈ -3.5%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Vistra Corp vs NextEra Energy: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: VST or NEE?

VST showed higher volatility at 56.5% annualized, compared to 26.5% for NEE Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does VST provide diversification when held with NEE?

VST and NEE are weakly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.13. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.

How bad are the worst 5% days for VST vs NEE?

Over the past year, VST's 5% VaR was -6.10% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -8.53% (worst 13 days). NEE's were -2.49% and -3.90% (worst 13 days).

Do VST and NEE crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when NEE has a 2σ down day, VST also does 40.0% (2/5 days). In the other direction, when VST has one, NEE also does 20.0% (2/10 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: VST or NEE?

NEE showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.30 versus VST's 0.75 Over the past year.

Can VST and NEE be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. VST's higher volatility (56.5%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.