Cite This Comparison
"Gold vs S&P 500 (XAU vs SPY): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 9, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/xau-vs-spy Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-13 to 2026-01-09
Relative Performance of XAU vs SPY (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: XAU delivered a +69.3% total return, while SPY returned +20.8% over the same period. XAU outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): XAU had a higher Sharpe (2.54 vs 0.86), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
- Volatility (Annualized): XAU was more volatile, with 19.5% annualized volatility, versus 19.4% for SPY.
- Maximum Drawdown: XAU's maximum drawdown was -9.7%, while SPY experienced a deeper drawdown of -18.8%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), XAU's VaR was -1.75% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -2.69%; SPY's were -1.67% and -2.80%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: XAU -0.45 vs SPY 1.10. Excess kurtosis: XAU 2.23 vs SPY 20.93. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): XAU 8/10, SPY 6/3. Worst day: XAU -5.45% (2025-10-21) vs SPY -6.03% (2025-04-04). Best day: XAU +3.44% (2025-04-16) vs SPY +9.99% (2025-04-09).
Gold vs S&P 500 Correlation
Gold and S&P 500 are negatively correlated over the past year. With a negative correlation of -0.04, these assets tend to move in opposite directions, potentially offering strong diversification benefits.
For portfolio construction, this negative correlation suggests that combining XAU and SPY could significantly reduce portfolio variance through offsetting movements.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.38 | |
| Average (full period) | -0.04 | |
| Minimum | -0.67 | |
| Maximum | 0.57 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 13, 2025:
Difference: $4,850.16 (XAU ahead)
Gold and S&P 500: Risk Analysis
Gold experienced its maximum drawdown of -9.7% from 2025-10-20 to 2025-11-04. It took 48 days to recover.
S&P 500 experienced its maximum drawdown of -18.8% from 2025-02-19 to 2025-04-08. It took 79 days to recover.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of XAU and SPY
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. XAU had a higher Sharpe (2.54 vs 0.86), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of XAU and SPY
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. XAU had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: XAU 13.9% vs SPY 15.3%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: Gold vs. S&P 500
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
| Metric (1y) | XAU | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -1.75% | -1.67% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -2.69% (worst 13 days) | -2.80% (worst 13 days) |
| Skew | -0.45 | 1.10 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.23 | 20.93 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 8 / 10 | 6 / 3 |
| Worst day | -5.45% (2025-10-21) | -6.03% (2025-04-04) |
| Best day | +3.44% (2025-04-16) | +9.99% (2025-04-09) |
Downside co-moves (2σ)
Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both XAU and SPY had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | XAU | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | -2.52% | -5.85% |
Days when XAU had a big down day
| Date (interval) | XAU | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | -2.52% | -5.85% |
| 2025-04-23 | -2.75% | +1.55% |
| 2025-05-09 → 2025-05-12 | -2.79% | +3.30% |
| 2025-10-17 | -2.37% | +0.57% |
| 2025-10-21 | -5.31% | +0.00% |
| 2025-10-24 → 2025-10-27 | -2.78% | +1.18% |
| 2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29 | -4.40% | -0.36% |
Days when SPY had a big down day
| Date (interval) | XAU | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 | -0.84% | -2.66% |
| 2025-04-03 | -0.66% | -4.93% |
| 2025-04-04 | -2.52% | -5.85% |
| 2025-04-10 | +3.01% | -4.38% |
| 2025-04-17 → 2025-04-21 | +2.92% | -2.38% |
| 2025-10-10 | +0.85% | -2.70% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Gold vs S&P 500 Volatility (XAU vs SPY)
Gold's annualized volatility of 19.5% means it typically moves ±1.23% on any given day.
S&P 500's annualized volatility of 19.4% means it typically moves ±1.22% on any given day.
XAU's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while SPY's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Gold vs S&P 500 Performance Over Time
| Metric | XAU | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | 6.6% | 1.2% |
| 90 Days | 12.4% | 6.6% |
| 180 Days | 34.3% | 11.9% |
| 1 Year | 69.3% | 20.8% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Gold vs. S&P 500 (1-Year)
| Metric | XAU | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | +69.3% | +20.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 19.5% | 19.4% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.54 | 0.86 |
| Sortino Ratio | 3.55 | 1.10 |
| Max Drawdown | -9.7% | -18.8% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | -0.09 | 1.00 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -1.75% | -1.67% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -2.69% | -2.80% |
| Skew | -0.45 | 1.10 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.23 | 20.93 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 8 / 10 | 6 / 3 |
Gold vs S&P 500: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: XAU or SPY?
XAU showed higher volatility at 19.5% annualized, compared to 19.4% for SPY Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does XAU provide diversification when held with SPY?
XAU and SPY are negatively correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of -0.04. This negative correlation suggests strong diversification benefits through offsetting movements.
How bad are the worst 5% days for XAU vs SPY?
Over the past year, XAU's 5% VaR was -1.75% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -2.69% (worst 13 days). SPY's were -1.67% and -2.80% (worst 13 days).
Do XAU and SPY crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=249), when SPY has a 2σ down day, XAU also does 16.7% (1/6 days). In the other direction, when XAU has one, SPY also does 14.3% (1/7 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: XAU or SPY?
XAU showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 2.54 versus SPY's 0.86 Over the past year.
Can XAU and SPY be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their negative correlation could significantly reduce portfolio variance through offsetting movements. XAU's higher volatility (19.5%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.