Stellar vs Ripple (XLM vs XRP) 2026: Crypto Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: XLM or XRP?

Over the past year, it depends: XRP led on total return (XRP -35.1% vs XLM -38.0%), but XLM had the higher Sharpe ratio (XLM -0.32 vs XRP -0.33). On risk, XRP was less volatile (XRP 69.8% vs XLM 75.1%), XRP had a smaller max drawdown (XRP -65.6% vs XLM -70.6%), and XLM had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of XLM -7.79% vs XRP -7.89%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: XLM or XRP?

Over the past year, XRP outperformed XLM. XRP returned -35.1% compared with XLM’s -38.0%. XLM had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of -0.32 versus XRP’s -0.33. XRP was less volatile than XLM, and XRP had a smaller max drawdown than XLM.

Total Return

XLM -38.0%

XRP -35.1%

Sharpe Ratio

XLM -0.32

XRP -0.33

Annualized Volatility

XLM 75.1%

XRP 69.8%

Max Drawdown

XLM -70.6%

XRP -65.6%

Metric winners: Total Return: XRP; Sharpe Ratio: XLM; Annualized Volatility: XRP (less volatile); Max Drawdown: XRP (smaller drawdown).

XLM Total Return

↓ -38.0%

XRP Total Return

↓ -35.1%

Relative Performance of XLM vs XRP (Normalized to 100)

XLM XRP

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: XLM delivered a -38.0% total return, while XRP returned -35.1% over the same period. XRP outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both Sharpe ratios were negative (XLM -0.32 vs XRP -0.33), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; XLM was less negative.
Volatility (Annualized): XLM was more volatile, with 75.1% annualized volatility, versus 69.8% for XRP.
Maximum Drawdown: XRP's maximum drawdown was -65.6%, while XLM experienced a deeper drawdown of -70.6%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), XLM's VaR was -5.57% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -7.79%; XRP's were -5.19% and -7.89%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: XLM 0.57 vs XRP -0.01. Excess kurtosis: XLM 3.49 vs XRP 6.20. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): XLM 5/17, XRP 4/10. Worst day: XLM -15.61% (2025-10-10) vs XRP -19.10% (2026-02-04). Best day: XLM +20.44% (2025-07-13) vs XRP +21.36% (2026-02-05).
Risk ratios: Sortino - XLM: -0.51 vs. XRP: -0.49 , Calmar - XLM: -0.54 vs. XRP: -0.54 , Sterling - XLM: -1.14 vs. XRP: -0.90 , Treynor - XLM: -0.13 vs. XRP: -0.13 , Ulcer Index - XLM: 44.52% vs. XRP: 37.73%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 24, 2025:

XLM $6,204.96 -38.0%

XRP $6,492.62 -35.1%

Difference: $287.66 (XRP ahead)

Stellar vs Ripple Performance Over Time

Metric	XLM	XRP
30 Days	-1.9%	1.1%
90 Days	-18.1%	-25.3%
180 Days	-46.4%	-44.8%
1 Year	-38%	-35.1%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Stellar vs Ripple Correlation

Average Correlation

strongly correlated

0.88

Current (30-day) 0.84

30-day rolling range +0.65 to +0.98

Stellar and Ripple are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.88, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both XLM and XRP provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.84
Average (full period)	0.88
Minimum (30-day rolling)	0.65
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.98

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

XLM

-70.6%

XRP

-65.6%

Stellar experienced its maximum drawdown of -70.6% from 2025-07-17 to 2026-02-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Ripple experienced its maximum drawdown of -65.6% from 2025-07-21 to 2026-02-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Stellar vs Ripple Volatility (XLM vs XRP)

XLM Volatility

75.1%

±3.93% 1-day vol

XRP Volatility

69.8%

±3.65% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

XLM

±3.93%

XRP

±3.65%

Stellar's 75.1% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.93% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Ripple's 69.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.65% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

XLM had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; XRP was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of XLM and XRP

Sharpe Ratio: XLM vs. XRP

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both Sharpe ratios were negative (XLM -0.32 vs XRP -0.33), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; XLM was less negative.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of XLM and XRP

Sortino Ratio: XLM vs. XRP

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). XRP had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: XLM 48.3% vs XRP 47.5%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of XLM and XRP

Calmar Ratio: XLM vs. XRP

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. Both assets showed similar Calmar ratios.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of XLM and XRP

Sterling Ratio: XLM vs. XRP

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). XRP posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of XLM and XRP

Treynor Ratio: XLM vs. XRP

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. XRP posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of XLM and XRP

Ulcer Index: XLM vs. XRP

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. XRP had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Stellar vs. Ripple

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: XLM vs. XRP (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	XLM	XRP
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.57%	-5.19%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-7.79% (worst 19 days)	-7.89% (worst 19 days)
Skew	0.57	-0.01
Excess kurtosis	3.49	6.20
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 17	4 / 10
Worst day	-15.61% (2025-10-10)	-19.10% (2026-02-04)
Best day	+20.44% (2025-07-13)	+21.36% (2026-02-05)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=364). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: XLM vs. XRP (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both XLM and XRP crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both XLM and XRP had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	XLM	XRP
2025-07-23	-9.51%	-10.50%
2025-10-10	-15.61%	-15.02%
2025-11-03	-8.84%	-8.71%
2026-02-04	-13.32%	-19.10%

Days when XLM had a big down day

Date (interval)	XLM	XRP
2025-07-18	-9.01%	-2.22%
2025-07-23	-9.51%	-10.50%
2025-10-10	-15.61%	-15.02%
2025-11-03	-8.84%	-8.71%
2026-02-04	-13.32%	-19.10%

Days when XRP had a big down day

Date (interval)	XLM	XRP
2025-07-23	-9.51%	-10.50%
2025-10-10	-15.61%	-15.02%
2025-11-03	-8.84%	-8.71%
2026-02-04	-13.32%	-19.10%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Stellar vs. Ripple (1-Year)

Metric	XLM	XRP
Total Return	-38.0%	-35.1%
Annualized Volatility	75.1%	69.8%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.32	-0.33
Sortino Ratio	-0.51	-0.49
Calmar Ratio	-0.54	-0.54
Sterling Ratio	-1.14	-0.90
Treynor Ratio	-0.13	-0.13
Ulcer Index	44.52%	37.73%
Max Drawdown	-70.6%	-65.6%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.36	0.39
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.57%	-5.19%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-7.79%	-7.89%
Skew	0.57	-0.01
Excess kurtosis	3.49	6.20
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 17	4 / 10

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-24 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 335 rolling 30-day values (from 364 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): XLM: 365 days/year; XRP: 365 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

XLM: 4.17% over 2025-04-24 → 2026-04-23.

XRP: 4.17% over 2025-04-24 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

XLM: ≈ -28.2%/yr

XRP: ≈ -24.4%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Stellar vs Ripple: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: XLM or XRP?

XLM showed higher volatility at 75.1% annualized, compared to 69.8% for XRP Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does XLM provide diversification when held with XRP?

XLM and XRP are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.88. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for XLM vs XRP?

Over the past year, XLM's 5% VaR was -5.57% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -7.79% (worst 19 days). XRP's were -5.19% and -7.89% (worst 19 days).

Do XLM and XRP crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=364), when XRP has a 2σ down day, XLM also does 100.0% (4/4 days). In the other direction, when XLM has one, XRP also does 80.0% (4/5 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: XLM or XRP?

Both assets posted negative Sharpe ratios Over the past year (XLM -0.32 vs XRP -0.33), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; XLM was less negative.

Can XLM and XRP be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. XLM's higher volatility (75.1%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: XLM or XRP?

Share This Comparison of XLM vs XRP

Relative Performance of XLM vs XRP (Normalized to 100)

Trade XLM or XRP

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Stellar vs Ripple Performance Over Time

Stellar vs Ripple Correlation

Drawdown

Stellar vs Ripple Volatility (XLM vs XRP)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of XLM and XRP

Sharpe Ratio: XLM vs. XRP

Sortino Ratio of XLM and XRP

Sortino Ratio: XLM vs. XRP

Calmar Ratio of XLM and XRP

Calmar Ratio: XLM vs. XRP

Sterling Ratio of XLM and XRP

Sterling Ratio: XLM vs. XRP

Treynor Ratio of XLM and XRP

Treynor Ratio: XLM vs. XRP

Ulcer Index of XLM and XRP

Ulcer Index: XLM vs. XRP

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Stellar vs. Ripple

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: XLM vs. XRP (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: XLM vs. XRP (2σ)

Days when both XLM and XRP had a big down day (2σ)

Days when XLM had a big down day

Days when XRP had a big down day

Full Comparison of Stellar vs. Ripple (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Stellar vs Ripple: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: XLM or XRP?

Does XLM provide diversification when held with XRP?

How bad are the worst 5% days for XLM vs XRP?

Do XLM and XRP crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: XLM or XRP?

Can XLM and XRP be combined in a portfolio?