Hyperliquid vs Intercontinental Exchange (HYPE vs ICE) 2026: Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: HYPE or ICE?

Over the past year, HYPE looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (HYPE +123.7% vs ICE -2.4%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (HYPE 1.25 vs ICE -0.20). On risk, ICE was less volatile (ICE 21.4% vs HYPE 94.8%), ICE had a smaller max drawdown (ICE -22.5% vs HYPE -63.6%), and ICE had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of ICE -3.56% vs HYPE -9.08%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: HYPE or ICE?

Over the past year, HYPE outperformed ICE. HYPE returned +123.7% compared with ICE’s -2.4%. HYPE had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.25 versus ICE’s -0.20. ICE was less volatile than HYPE, and ICE had a smaller max drawdown than HYPE.

Total Return

HYPE +123.7%

ICE -2.4%

Sharpe Ratio

HYPE 1.25

ICE -0.20

Annualized Volatility

HYPE 94.8%

ICE 21.4%

Max Drawdown

HYPE -63.6%

ICE -22.5%

Metric winners: Total Return: HYPE; Sharpe Ratio: HYPE; Annualized Volatility: ICE (less volatile); Max Drawdown: ICE (smaller drawdown).

HYPE Total Return

↑ +123.7%

ICE Total Return

↓ -2.4%

Relative Performance of HYPE vs ICE (Normalized to 100)

HYPE ICE

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: HYPE delivered a +123.7% total return, while ICE returned -2.4% over the same period. HYPE outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): ICE had a negative Sharpe (-0.20) while HYPE was positive (1.25), indicating HYPE had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): HYPE was more volatile, with 94.8% annualized volatility, versus 21.4% for ICE.
Maximum Drawdown: ICE's maximum drawdown was -22.5%, while HYPE experienced a deeper drawdown of -63.6%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), HYPE's VaR was -7.04% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -9.08%; ICE's were -2.13% and -3.56%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: HYPE 0.40 vs ICE -1.26. Excess kurtosis: HYPE 0.64 vs ICE 6.12. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): HYPE 7/11, ICE 8/5. Worst day: HYPE -13.08% (2025-10-10) vs ICE -7.78% (2026-02-11). Best day: HYPE +21.00% (2026-01-26) vs ICE +3.75% (2026-01-14).
Risk ratios: Sortino - HYPE: 2.05 vs. ICE: -0.26 , Calmar - HYPE: 1.89 vs. ICE: -0.11 , Sterling - HYPE: 3.65 vs. ICE: -0.29 , Treynor - HYPE: 0.59 vs. ICE: -0.13 , Ulcer Index - HYPE: 33.02% vs. ICE: 11.66%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 25, 2025:

HYPE $22,371.55 +123.7%

ICE $9,761.33 -2.4%

Difference: $12,610.22 (HYPE ahead)

Hyperliquid vs Intercontinental Exchange Performance Over Time

Metric	HYPE	ICE
30 Days	2.3%	1.1%
90 Days	74.2%	-8.6%
180 Days	-7%	0.5%
1 Year	119.7%	-2.4%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Hyperliquid vs Intercontinental Exchange Correlation

Average Correlation

weakly correlated

0.07

Current (30-day) -0.04

30-day rolling range -0.32 to +0.49

Hyperliquid and Intercontinental Exchange are weakly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.07, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.

For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining HYPE and ICE could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	-0.04
Average (full period)	0.07
Minimum (30-day rolling)	-0.32
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.49

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

HYPE

-63.6%

ICE

-22.5%

Hyperliquid experienced its maximum drawdown of -63.6% from 2025-09-18 to 2026-01-19. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Intercontinental Exchange experienced its maximum drawdown of -22.5% from 2025-08-04 to 2025-11-03. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Hyperliquid vs Intercontinental Exchange Volatility (HYPE vs ICE)

HYPE Volatility

94.8%

±4.96% 1-day vol

ICE Volatility

21.4%

±1.35% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

HYPE

±4.96%

ICE

±1.35%

Hyperliquid's 94.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±4.96% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Intercontinental Exchange's 21.4% annualized volatility translates to about ±1.35% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

HYPE had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; ICE was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of HYPE and ICE

Sharpe Ratio: HYPE vs. ICE

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. ICE had a negative Sharpe (-0.20) while HYPE was positive (1.25), indicating HYPE had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of HYPE and ICE

Sortino Ratio: HYPE vs. ICE

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). HYPE had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: HYPE 58.0% vs ICE 16.5%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of HYPE and ICE

Calmar Ratio: HYPE vs. ICE

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. HYPE posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of HYPE and ICE

Sterling Ratio: HYPE vs. ICE

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). HYPE posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of HYPE and ICE

Treynor Ratio: HYPE vs. ICE

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. HYPE posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of HYPE and ICE

Ulcer Index: HYPE vs. ICE

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. ICE had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Hyperliquid vs. Intercontinental Exchange

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: HYPE vs. ICE (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	HYPE	ICE
5% VaR (daily log return)	-7.04%	-2.13%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.08% (worst 19 days)	-3.56% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.40	-1.26
Excess kurtosis	0.64	6.12
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 11	8 / 5
Worst day	-13.08% (2025-10-10)	-7.78% (2026-02-11)
Best day	+21.00% (2026-01-26)	+3.75% (2026-01-14)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: HYPE vs. ICE (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both HYPE and ICE crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both HYPE and ICE had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when HYPE had a big down day

Date (interval)	HYPE	ICE
2025-06-18 → 2025-06-20	-15.01%	-0.74%
2025-09-19 → 2025-09-22	-15.72%	+0.21%
2025-09-25	-11.60%	-0.46%
2025-10-10	-13.08%	-1.13%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-13.16%	-1.74%

Days when ICE had a big down day

Date (interval)	HYPE	ICE
2025-05-09 → 2025-05-12	+0.69%	-2.74%
2025-10-01	+4.13%	-3.47%
2025-10-29	+0.18%	-4.23%
2026-02-03	+5.86%	-5.84%
2026-02-10	+1.13%	-2.76%
2026-02-11	+2.81%	-7.78%
2026-03-10	+6.56%	-3.40%
2026-04-09	+4.98%	-3.47%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Hyperliquid vs. Intercontinental Exchange (1-Year)

Metric	HYPE	ICE
Total Return	+123.7%	-2.4%
Annualized Volatility	94.8%	21.4%
Sharpe Ratio	1.25	-0.20
Sortino Ratio	2.05	-0.26
Calmar Ratio	1.89	-0.11
Sterling Ratio	3.65	-0.29
Treynor Ratio	0.59	-0.13
Ulcer Index	33.02%	11.66%
Max Drawdown	-63.6%	-22.5%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.33	0.23
5% VaR (daily log return)	-7.04%	-2.13%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.08%	-3.56%
Skew	0.40	-1.26
Excess kurtosis	0.64	6.12
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 11	8 / 5

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): HYPE: 365 days/year; ICE: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

HYPE: 4.17% over 2025-04-24 → 2026-04-23.

ICE: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

HYPE: ≈ -44.9%/yr

ICE: ≈ -2.3%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Hyperliquid vs Intercontinental Exchange: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: HYPE or ICE?

HYPE showed higher volatility at 94.8% annualized, compared to 21.4% for ICE Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does HYPE provide diversification when held with ICE?

HYPE and ICE are weakly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.07. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.

How bad are the worst 5% days for HYPE vs ICE?

Over the past year, HYPE's 5% VaR was -7.04% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -9.08% (worst 19 days). ICE's were -2.13% and -3.56% (worst 13 days).

Do HYPE and ICE crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when ICE has a 2σ down day, HYPE also does 0.0% (0/8 days). In the other direction, when HYPE has one, ICE also does 0.0% (0/5 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: HYPE or ICE?

ICE had a negative Sharpe (-0.20) while HYPE was positive (1.25) Over the past year, indicating HYPE had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can HYPE and ICE be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. HYPE's higher volatility (94.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: HYPE or ICE?

Share This Comparison of HYPE vs ICE

Relative Performance of HYPE vs ICE (Normalized to 100)

Trade HYPE or ICE

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Hyperliquid vs Intercontinental Exchange Performance Over Time

Hyperliquid vs Intercontinental Exchange Correlation

Drawdown

Hyperliquid vs Intercontinental Exchange Volatility (HYPE vs ICE)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of HYPE and ICE

Sharpe Ratio: HYPE vs. ICE

Sortino Ratio of HYPE and ICE

Sortino Ratio: HYPE vs. ICE

Calmar Ratio of HYPE and ICE

Calmar Ratio: HYPE vs. ICE

Sterling Ratio of HYPE and ICE

Sterling Ratio: HYPE vs. ICE

Treynor Ratio of HYPE and ICE

Treynor Ratio: HYPE vs. ICE

Ulcer Index of HYPE and ICE

Ulcer Index: HYPE vs. ICE

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Hyperliquid vs. Intercontinental Exchange

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: HYPE vs. ICE (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: HYPE vs. ICE (2σ)

Days when both HYPE and ICE had a big down day (2σ)

Days when HYPE had a big down day

Days when ICE had a big down day

Full Comparison of Hyperliquid vs. Intercontinental Exchange (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Hyperliquid vs Intercontinental Exchange: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: HYPE or ICE?

Does HYPE provide diversification when held with ICE?

How bad are the worst 5% days for HYPE vs ICE?

Do HYPE and ICE crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: HYPE or ICE?

Can HYPE and ICE be combined in a portfolio?