RCAT vs DPRO: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: RCAT or DPRO?

Over the past year, DPRO looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (DPRO +218.1% vs RCAT +97.9%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (DPRO 1.50 vs RCAT 1.13). On risk, RCAT was less volatile (RCAT 117.5% vs DPRO 143.4%), DPRO had a smaller max drawdown (DPRO -55.8% vs RCAT -60.1%), and RCAT had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of RCAT -14.08% vs DPRO -19.06%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: RCAT or DPRO?

Over the past year, DPRO outperformed (+97.9% vs +218.1%) with a Sharpe ratio of 1.50.

Total Return

RCAT +97.9%

DPRO WIN +218.1%

Sharpe Ratio

RCAT 1.13

DPRO WIN 1.50

Annualized Volatility

RCAT WIN 117.5%

DPRO 143.4%

Max Drawdown

RCAT -60.1%

DPRO WIN -55.8%

Analysis period: 2025-02-27 to 2026-02-20

RCAT Total Return

↑ +97.9%

DPRO Total Return

↑ +218.1%

Relative Performance of RCAT vs DPRO (Normalized to 100)

RCAT DPRO

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: RCAT delivered a +97.9% total return, while DPRO returned +218.1% over the same period. DPRO outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): DPRO had a higher Sharpe (1.50 vs 1.13), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): DPRO was more volatile, with 143.4% annualized volatility, versus 117.5% for RCAT.
Maximum Drawdown: DPRO's maximum drawdown was -55.8%, while RCAT experienced a deeper drawdown of -60.1%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), RCAT's VaR was -10.81% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -14.08%; DPRO's were -11.81% and -19.06%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: RCAT 0.16 vs DPRO -0.23. Excess kurtosis: RCAT 0.97 vs DPRO 4.03. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): RCAT 3/8, DPRO 4/6. Worst day: RCAT -22.15% (2025-04-10) vs DPRO -33.15% (2025-06-11). Best day: RCAT +29.11% (2025-09-11) vs DPRO +43.49% (2025-07-16).
Risk ratios: Sortino - RCAT: 1.83 vs. DPRO: 2.46 , Calmar - RCAT: 1.68 vs. DPRO: 4.04 , Sterling - RCAT: 3.17 vs. DPRO: 5.99 , Treynor - RCAT: 0.52 vs. DPRO: 1.18 , Ulcer Index - RCAT: 27.49% vs. DPRO: 33.46%

Red Cat Holdings vs Draganfly Correlation

0.30 Average Correlation

Red Cat Holdings and Draganfly are weakly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.30, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.

For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining RCAT and DPRO could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.73
Average (full period)	0.30
Minimum	-0.45
Maximum	0.84

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 27, 2025:

RCAT $19,793.65 +97.9%

DPRO $31,814.52 +218.1%

Difference: $12,020.87 (DPRO ahead)

Red Cat Holdings and Draganfly: Risk Analysis

Red Cat Holdings experienced its maximum drawdown of -60.1% from 2025-10-13 to 2025-11-20. It took 62 days to recover.

Draganfly experienced its maximum drawdown of -55.8% from 2025-10-13 to 2025-12-17. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of RCAT and DPRO

RCAT Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.13

DPRO Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.50

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. DPRO had a higher Sharpe (1.50 vs 1.13), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of RCAT and DPRO

RCAT Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.83

DPRO Sortino Ratio

↑ 2.46

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). DPRO had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: RCAT 72.9% vs DPRO 87.4%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of RCAT and DPRO

RCAT Calmar Ratio

↑ 1.68

DPRO Calmar Ratio

↑ 4.04

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. DPRO posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of RCAT and DPRO

RCAT Sterling Ratio

↑ 3.17

DPRO Sterling Ratio

↑ 5.99

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). DPRO posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of RCAT and DPRO

RCAT Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.52

DPRO Treynor Ratio

↑ 1.18

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. DPRO posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of RCAT and DPRO

RCAT Ulcer Index

27.49%

DPRO Ulcer Index

33.46%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. RCAT had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Red Cat Holdings vs. Draganfly

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	RCAT	DPRO
5% VaR (daily log return)	-10.81%	-11.81%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-14.08% (worst 13 days)	-19.06% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.16	-0.23
Excess kurtosis	0.97	4.03
2σ tail days (down / up)	3 / 8	4 / 6
Worst day	-22.15% (2025-04-10)	-33.15% (2025-06-11)
Best day	+29.11% (2025-09-11)	+43.49% (2025-07-16)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=246). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When DPRO has a big down day, RCAT also does

0.0%

0 / 4 days

When RCAT has a big down day, DPRO also does

0.0%

0 / 3 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both RCAT and DPRO had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when RCAT had a big down day

Date (interval)	RCAT	DPRO
2025-04-10	-22.15%	-1.25%
2025-06-17	-20.35%	-7.72%
2025-07-18 → 2025-07-21	-16.46%	+10.09%

Days when DPRO had a big down day

Date (interval)	RCAT	DPRO
2025-05-02	+17.26%	-32.52%
2025-06-11	-1.86%	-33.15%
2025-07-18	-7.70%	-24.52%
2025-10-16	-12.34%	-16.70%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Red Cat Holdings vs Draganfly Volatility (RCAT vs DPRO)

RCAT Volatility

117.5%

±7.4% daily

DPRO Volatility

143.4%

±9.03% daily

Typical daily swing

RCAT

±7.4%

DPRO

±9.03%

Red Cat Holdings's annualized volatility of 117.5% means it typically moves ±7.4% on any given day.

Draganfly's annualized volatility of 143.4% means it typically moves ±9.03% on any given day.

DPRO's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while RCAT's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Red Cat Holdings vs Draganfly Performance Over Time

Metric	RCAT	DPRO
30 Days	-20.1%	-12.5%
90 Days	96.1%	19.2%
180 Days	27%	81.8%
1 Year	N/A	N/A

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Red Cat Holdings vs. Draganfly (1-Year)

Metric	RCAT	DPRO
Total Return	+97.9%	+218.1%
Annualized Volatility	117.5%	143.4%
Sharpe Ratio	1.13	1.50
Sortino Ratio	1.83	2.46
Calmar Ratio	1.68	4.04
Sterling Ratio	3.17	5.99
Treynor Ratio	0.52	1.18
Ulcer Index	27.49%	33.46%
Max Drawdown	-60.1%	-55.8%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.37	0.24
5% VaR (daily log return)	-10.81%	-11.81%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-14.08%	-19.06%
Skew	0.16	-0.23
Excess kurtosis	0.97	4.03
2σ tail days (down / up)	3 / 8	4 / 6

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-20 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 217 rolling 30-day values (from 246 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): RCAT: 252 days/year; DPRO: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

RCAT: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-20.

DPRO: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-20.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

RCAT: ≈ -69.0%/yr

DPRO: ≈ -102.8%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Red Cat Holdings vs Draganfly: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: RCAT or DPRO?

DPRO showed higher volatility at 143.4% annualized, compared to 117.5% for RCAT Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does RCAT provide diversification when held with DPRO?

RCAT and DPRO are weakly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.30. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.

How bad are the worst 5% days for RCAT vs DPRO?

Over the past year, RCAT's 5% VaR was -10.81% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -14.08% (worst 13 days). DPRO's were -11.81% and -19.06% (worst 13 days).

Do RCAT and DPRO crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=246), when DPRO has a 2σ down day, RCAT also does 0.0% (0/4 days). In the other direction, when RCAT has one, DPRO also does 0.0% (0/3 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: RCAT or DPRO?

DPRO showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.50 versus RCAT's 1.13 Over the past year.

Can RCAT and DPRO be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. DPRO's higher volatility (143.4%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.