Cite This Comparison
"Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver (SILJ vs XAG): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 23, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/silj-vs-xag/ Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-27 to 2026-01-23
Relative Performance of SILJ vs XAG (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: SILJ delivered a +282.1% total return, while XAG returned +239.2% over the same period. SILJ outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): XAG had a higher Sharpe (3.47 vs 3.07), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
- Volatility (Annualized): SILJ was more volatile, with 46.5% annualized volatility, versus 35.3% for XAG.
- Maximum Drawdown: XAG's maximum drawdown was -13.6%, while SILJ experienced a deeper drawdown of -22.9%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), SILJ's VaR was -4.19% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -6.26%; XAG's were -2.36% and -4.71%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: SILJ -0.35 vs XAG -0.06. Excess kurtosis: SILJ 2.10 vs XAG 2.71. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): SILJ 7/3, XAG 6/10. Worst day: SILJ -11.32% (2025-10-21) vs XAG -8.02% (2025-12-29). Best day: SILJ +11.08% (2025-04-09) vs XAG +9.18% (2025-12-26).
- Risk ratios: Sortino - SILJ: 5.01 vs. XAG: 5.97 , Calmar - SILJ: 12.61 vs. XAG: 17.91 , Sterling - SILJ: 15.83 vs. XAG: 17.76 , Treynor - SILJ: 1.83 vs. XAG: 2.84 , Ulcer Index - SILJ: 6.85% vs. XAG: 4.27%
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver Correlation
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF and Silver are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.77, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.
For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both SILJ and XAG provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.66 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.77 | |
| Minimum | 0.62 | |
| Maximum | 0.90 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 27, 2025:
Difference: $4,290.03 (SILJ ahead)
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF and Silver: Risk Analysis
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -22.9% from 2025-10-16 to 2025-11-05. It took 36 days to recover.
Silver experienced its maximum drawdown of -13.6% from 2025-03-27 to 2025-04-04. It took 59 days to recover.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of SILJ and XAG
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. XAG had a higher Sharpe (3.47 vs 3.07), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of SILJ and XAG
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). XAG had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: SILJ 28.4% vs XAG 20.5%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Calmar Ratio of SILJ and XAG
Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. XAG posted the higher Calmar ratio.
Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.
Sterling Ratio of SILJ and XAG
Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). XAG posted the higher Sterling ratio.
Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.
Treynor Ratio of SILJ and XAG
Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. XAG posted the higher Treynor ratio.
Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.
Ulcer Index of SILJ and XAG
Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. XAG had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).
Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs. Silver
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.
| Metric (1-Year) | SILJ | XAG |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -4.19% | -2.36% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -6.26% (worst 13 days) | -4.71% (worst 13 days) |
| Skew | -0.35 | -0.06 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.10 | 2.71 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 7 / 3 | 6 / 10 |
| Worst day | -11.32% (2025-10-21) | -8.02% (2025-12-29) |
| Best day | +11.08% (2025-04-09) | +9.18% (2025-12-26) |
Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year
Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both SILJ and XAG had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | SILJ | XAG |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | -10.52% | -6.64% |
| 2025-10-17 | -7.69% | -4.40% |
| 2025-10-21 | -11.32% | -7.10% |
| 2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29 | -5.25% | -8.02% |
Days when SILJ had a big down day
| Date (interval) | SILJ | XAG |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | -10.52% | -6.64% |
| 2025-07-08 | -5.33% | -0.04% |
| 2025-10-17 | -7.69% | -4.40% |
| 2025-10-21 | -11.32% | -7.10% |
| 2025-11-04 | -5.67% | -1.92% |
| 2025-11-20 | -5.93% | -1.37% |
| 2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29 | -5.25% | -8.02% |
Days when XAG had a big down day
| Date (interval) | SILJ | XAG |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-03 | -2.50% | -5.99% |
| 2025-04-04 | -10.52% | -6.64% |
| 2025-10-17 | -7.69% | -4.40% |
| 2025-10-21 | -11.32% | -7.10% |
| 2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29 | -5.25% | -8.02% |
| 2025-12-31 | -1.64% | -6.05% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver Volatility (SILJ vs XAG)
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF's annualized volatility of 46.5% means it typically moves ±2.93% on any given day.
Silver's annualized volatility of 35.3% means it typically moves ±2.23% on any given day.
SILJ's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while XAG's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver Performance Over Time
| Metric | SILJ | XAG |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | 34.7% | 42.7% |
| 90 Days | 73% | 111.3% |
| 180 Days | 155.1% | 168.5% |
| 1 Year | 282.1% | 239.2% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs. Silver (1-Year)
| Metric | SILJ | XAG |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | +282.1% | +239.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 46.5% | 35.3% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 3.07 | 3.47 |
| Sortino Ratio | 5.01 | 5.97 |
| Calmar Ratio | 12.61 | 17.91 |
| Sterling Ratio | 15.83 | 17.76 |
| Treynor Ratio | 1.83 | 2.84 |
| Ulcer Index | 6.85% | 4.27% |
| Max Drawdown | -22.9% | -13.6% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -4.19% | -2.36% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -6.26% | -4.71% |
| Skew | -0.35 | -0.06 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.10 | 2.71 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 7 / 3 | 6 / 10 |
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: SILJ or XAG?
SILJ showed higher volatility at 46.5% annualized, compared to 35.3% for XAG Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does SILJ provide diversification when held with XAG?
SILJ and XAG are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.77. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.
How bad are the worst 5% days for SILJ vs XAG?
Over the past year, SILJ's 5% VaR was -4.19% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -6.26% (worst 13 days). XAG's were -2.36% and -4.71% (worst 13 days).
Do SILJ and XAG crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=249), when XAG has a 2σ down day, SILJ also does 66.7% (4/6 days). In the other direction, when SILJ has one, XAG also does 57.1% (4/7 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: SILJ or XAG?
XAG showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 3.47 versus SILJ's 3.07 Over the past year.
Can SILJ and XAG be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. SILJ's higher volatility (46.5%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.