Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver (SILJ vs XAG) 2026: Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: SILJ or XAG?

Over the past year, SILJ looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (SILJ +154.2% vs XAG +128.4%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (SILJ 1.97 vs XAG 1.66). On risk, SILJ was less volatile (SILJ 53.3% vs XAG 56.9%), SILJ had a smaller max drawdown (SILJ -34.7% vs XAG -41.9%), and SILJ had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of SILJ -8.50% vs XAG -9.75%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: SILJ or XAG?

Over the past year, SILJ outperformed XAG. SILJ returned +154.2% compared with XAG’s +128.4%. SILJ had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.97 versus XAG’s 1.66. SILJ was less volatile than XAG, and SILJ had a smaller max drawdown than XAG.

Total Return

SILJ +154.2%

XAG +128.4%

Sharpe Ratio

SILJ 1.97

XAG 1.66

Annualized Volatility

SILJ 53.3%

XAG 56.9%

Max Drawdown

SILJ -34.7%

XAG -41.9%

Metric winners: Total Return: SILJ; Sharpe Ratio: SILJ; Annualized Volatility: SILJ (less volatile); Max Drawdown: SILJ (smaller drawdown).

SILJ Total Return

↑ +154.2%

XAG Total Return

↑ +128.4%

Relative Performance of SILJ vs XAG (Normalized to 100)

SILJ XAG

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: SILJ delivered a +154.2% total return, while XAG returned +128.4% over the same period. SILJ outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): SILJ had a higher Sharpe (1.97 vs 1.66), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): XAG was more volatile, with 56.9% annualized volatility, versus 53.3% for SILJ.
Maximum Drawdown: SILJ's maximum drawdown was -34.7%, while XAG experienced a deeper drawdown of -41.9%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), SILJ's VaR was -5.89% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -8.50%; XAG's were -4.23% and -9.75%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: SILJ -0.93 vs XAG -3.40. Excess kurtosis: SILJ 2.80 vs XAG 26.41. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): SILJ 10/2, XAG 7/2. Worst day: SILJ -15.02% (2026-01-30) vs XAG -28.03% (2026-01-30). Best day: SILJ +8.82% (2026-03-31) vs XAG +9.19% (2026-02-06).
Risk ratios: Sortino - SILJ: 2.82 vs. XAG: 2.17 , Calmar - SILJ: 4.49 vs. XAG: 3.09 , Sterling - SILJ: 5.74 vs. XAG: 4.54 , Treynor - SILJ: 0.83 vs. XAG: 0.94 , Ulcer Index - SILJ: 11.43% vs. XAG: 16.20%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 25, 2025:

SILJ $25,422.42 +154.2%

XAG $22,835.31 +128.4%

Difference: $2,587.11 (SILJ ahead)

Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver Performance Over Time

Metric	SILJ	XAG
30 Days	9.9%	5.9%
90 Days	-20.9%	-26.4%
180 Days	36.9%	55.5%
1 Year	154.2%	128.4%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver Correlation

Average Correlation

strongly correlated

0.79

Current (30-day) 0.87

30-day rolling range +0.62 to +0.90

Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF and Silver are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.79, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both SILJ and XAG provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.87
Average (full period)	0.79
Minimum (30-day rolling)	0.62
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.90

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

SILJ

-34.7%

XAG

-41.9%

Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -34.7% from 2026-02-27 to 2026-03-20. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Silver experienced its maximum drawdown of -41.9% from 2026-01-28 to 2026-03-20. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver Volatility (SILJ vs XAG)

SILJ Volatility

53.3%

±3.36% 1-day vol

XAG Volatility

56.9%

±3.59% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

SILJ

±3.36%

XAG

±3.59%

Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF's 53.3% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.36% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Silver's 56.9% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.59% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

XAG had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; SILJ was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of SILJ and XAG

Sharpe Ratio: SILJ vs. XAG

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. SILJ had a higher Sharpe (1.97 vs 1.66), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of SILJ and XAG

Sortino Ratio: SILJ vs. XAG

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). SILJ had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: SILJ 37.1% vs XAG 43.4%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of SILJ and XAG

Calmar Ratio: SILJ vs. XAG

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. SILJ posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of SILJ and XAG

Sterling Ratio: SILJ vs. XAG

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). SILJ posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of SILJ and XAG

Treynor Ratio: SILJ vs. XAG

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. XAG posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of SILJ and XAG

Ulcer Index: SILJ vs. XAG

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. SILJ had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs. Silver

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: SILJ vs. XAG (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	SILJ	XAG
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.89%	-4.23%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-8.50% (worst 13 days)	-9.75% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.93	-3.40
Excess kurtosis	2.80	26.41
2σ tail days (down / up)	10 / 2	7 / 2
Worst day	-15.02% (2026-01-30)	-28.03% (2026-01-30)
Best day	+8.82% (2026-03-31)	+9.19% (2026-02-06)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: SILJ vs. XAG (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both SILJ and XAG crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both SILJ and XAG had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	SILJ	XAG
2025-10-21	-11.32%	-7.10%
2026-01-30	-15.02%	-28.03%
2026-02-05	-8.69%	-19.55%
2026-02-12	-9.01%	-10.66%
2026-03-03	-9.71%	-8.17%

Days when SILJ had a big down day

Date (interval)	SILJ	XAG
2025-10-17	-7.69%	-4.40%
2025-10-21	-11.32%	-7.10%
2026-01-30	-15.02%	-28.03%
2026-02-05	-8.69%	-19.55%
2026-02-12	-9.01%	-10.66%
2026-03-03	-9.71%	-8.17%
2026-03-18	-7.20%	-4.48%
2026-03-19	-6.32%	-3.44%
2026-03-26	-6.58%	-4.14%
2026-04-21	-6.55%	-3.80%

Days when XAG had a big down day

Date (interval)	SILJ	XAG
2025-10-21	-11.32%	-7.10%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29	-5.25%	-8.02%
2026-01-30	-15.02%	-28.03%
2026-02-05	-8.69%	-19.55%
2026-02-12	-9.01%	-10.66%
2026-03-03	-9.71%	-8.17%
2026-03-20	-4.01%	-7.09%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs. Silver (1-Year)

Metric	SILJ	XAG
Total Return	+154.2%	+128.4%
Annualized Volatility	53.3%	56.9%
Sharpe Ratio	1.97	1.66
Sortino Ratio	2.82	2.17
Calmar Ratio	4.49	3.09
Sterling Ratio	5.74	4.54
Treynor Ratio	0.83	0.94
Ulcer Index	11.43%	16.20%
Max Drawdown	-34.7%	-41.9%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.30	0.16
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.89%	-4.23%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-8.50%	-9.75%
Skew	-0.93	-3.40
Excess kurtosis	2.80	26.41
2σ tail days (down / up)	10 / 2	7 / 2

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): SILJ: 252 days/year; XAG: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

SILJ: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.

XAG: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

SILJ: ≈ -14.2%/yr

XAG: ≈ -16.2%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: SILJ or XAG?

XAG showed higher volatility at 56.9% annualized, compared to 53.3% for SILJ Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does SILJ provide diversification when held with XAG?

SILJ and XAG are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.79. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for SILJ vs XAG?

Over the past year, SILJ's 5% VaR was -5.89% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -8.50% (worst 13 days). XAG's were -4.23% and -9.75% (worst 13 days).

Do SILJ and XAG crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when XAG has a 2σ down day, SILJ also does 71.4% (5/7 days). In the other direction, when SILJ has one, XAG also does 50.0% (5/10 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: SILJ or XAG?

SILJ showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.97 versus XAG's 1.66 Over the past year.

Can SILJ and XAG be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. XAG's higher volatility (56.9%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: SILJ or XAG?

Share This Comparison of SILJ vs XAG

Relative Performance of SILJ vs XAG (Normalized to 100)

Trade SILJ or XAG

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver Performance Over Time

Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver Correlation

Drawdown

Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver Volatility (SILJ vs XAG)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of SILJ and XAG

Sharpe Ratio: SILJ vs. XAG

Sortino Ratio of SILJ and XAG

Sortino Ratio: SILJ vs. XAG

Calmar Ratio of SILJ and XAG

Calmar Ratio: SILJ vs. XAG

Sterling Ratio of SILJ and XAG

Sterling Ratio: SILJ vs. XAG

Treynor Ratio of SILJ and XAG

Treynor Ratio: SILJ vs. XAG

Ulcer Index of SILJ and XAG

Ulcer Index: SILJ vs. XAG

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs. Silver

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: SILJ vs. XAG (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: SILJ vs. XAG (2σ)

Days when both SILJ and XAG had a big down day (2σ)

Days when SILJ had a big down day

Days when XAG had a big down day

Full Comparison of Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs. Silver (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF vs Silver: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: SILJ or XAG?

Does SILJ provide diversification when held with XAG?

How bad are the worst 5% days for SILJ vs XAG?

Do SILJ and XAG crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: SILJ or XAG?

Can SILJ and XAG be combined in a portfolio?