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Compare · URA vs BTC · 2026

Global X Uranium ETF vs Bitcoin

A year of returns, risk, and volatility, compared.

Global X Uranium ETF (URA) and Bitcoin (BTC) are compared across trailing return, volatility, drawdown, and risk-adjusted metrics.

Last updated:

Analysis period: 2025-10-07 to 2026-10-06

Gale Finance Team
Written by Gale Finance Team
Sid Kalla
Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Returns shown in USD.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: URA or BTC?

Over the past year, URA outperformed BTC. URA returned -14.4% compared with BTC’s -29.6%. URA had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of -0.12 versus BTC’s -0.67. BTC was less volatile than URA, but URA had a smaller max drawdown than BTC.

Total Return
URA -14.4%
BTC -29.6%
Sharpe Ratio
URA -0.12
BTC -0.67
Annualized Volatility
URA 51.8%
BTC 44.1%
Max Drawdown
URA -39.3%
BTC -52.5%

Metric winners: Total Return: URA; Sharpe Ratio: URA; Annualized Volatility: BTC (less volatile); Max Drawdown: URA (smaller drawdown).

URA Total Return
↓ -14.4%
BTC Total Return
↓ -29.6%

Relative Performance of URA vs BTC (Normalized to 100)

URA BTC

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

8 events in this period
Show events

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Key Takeaways

  • Total Return: URA delivered a -14.4% total return, while BTC returned -29.6% over the same period. URA outperformed on total returns.
  • Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both Sharpe ratios were negative (URA -0.12 vs BTC -0.67), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; URA was less negative.
  • Volatility (Annualized): URA was more volatile, with 51.8% annualized volatility, versus 44.1% for BTC.
  • Maximum Drawdown: URA's maximum drawdown was -39.3%, while BTC experienced a deeper drawdown of -52.5%.
  • Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), URA's VaR was -5.38% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -6.81%; BTC's were -4.36% and -6.38%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
  • Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: URA -0.01 vs BTC -0.24. Excess kurtosis: URA 0.01 vs BTC 4.06. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
  • Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): URA 6/9, BTC 5/8. Worst day: URA -9.88% (2026-06-05) vs BTC -14.07% (2026-02-05). Best day: URA +8.39% (2025-10-28) vs BTC +11.94% (2026-02-06).
  • Risk ratios: Sortino - URA: -0.17 vs. BTC: -0.94 , Calmar - URA: -0.37 vs. BTC: -0.56 , Sterling - URA: -0.54 vs. BTC: -0.64 , Treynor - URA: -0.03 vs. BTC: -0.18 , Ulcer Index - URA: 22.07% vs. BTC: 37.53%
Assets:Bitcoin (BTC)
Related:Cameco vs Global X Uranium ETF·Global X Uranium ETF vs Global X Copper Miners ETF·Global X Uranium ETF vs Gold ETF

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on October 7, 2025:

URA $8,559.88 -14.4%
BTC $7,041.5 -29.6%

Difference: $1,518.38 (URA ahead)

Global X Uranium ETF vs Bitcoin Performance Over Time

Metric URA BTC
30 Days -9.2% 7.4%
90 Days 0.3% 37.4%
180 Days -17.9% 19.8%
1 Year -14.4% -29.6%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Global X Uranium ETF vs Bitcoin Correlation

Average Correlation
moderately correlated
0.47
Current (30-day) 0.33
30-day rolling range +0.16 to +0.74

Global X Uranium ETF and Bitcoin are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.47, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric Value
Current (30-day) 0.33
Average (full period) 0.47
Minimum (30-day rolling) 0.16
Maximum (30-day rolling) 0.74

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown
URA
-39.3%
BTC
-52.5%

Global X Uranium ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -39.3% from 2026-01-28 to 2026-07-29. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -52.5% from 2025-10-08 to 2026-06-30. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Global X Uranium ETF vs Bitcoin Volatility (URA vs BTC)

URA Volatility
51.8%
±3.26% 1-day vol
BTC Volatility
44.1%
±2.78% 1-day vol
1-day volatility (1σ)
URA
±3.26%
BTC
±2.78%

Global X Uranium ETF's 51.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.26% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Bitcoin's 44.1% annualized volatility translates to about ±2.78% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

URA had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; BTC was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of URA and BTC

Sharpe Ratio: URA vs. BTC

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better
Excess return Annualized volatility 0 75% vol 51.8% · excess -6.1% vol 44.1% · excess -29.4%
excess return / total volatility
Formula Sharpe=E[R]−RfσR\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both Sharpe ratios were negative (URA -0.12 vs BTC -0.67), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; URA was less negative.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of URA and BTC

Sortino Ratio: URA vs. BTC

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better
Frequency (days) Daily return (%) target -15.1% +13.0% 37 0
excess return / downside volatility
Formula Sortino=E[R]−Rfσdown\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). URA had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: URA 36.2% vs BTC 31.5%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of URA and BTC

Calmar Ratio: URA vs. BTC

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better
0% URA -14.4% -39.3% BTC -29.7% -52.5%
CAGR / max drawdown
Formula Calmar=CAGR∣MaxDD∣\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. URA posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of URA and BTC

Sterling Ratio: URA vs. BTC

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better
0% -14% -28% -41% -55% 10% drawdown threshold
excess annual return / average deep drawdown
Formula Sterling=CAGR−RfD‾>10%\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). URA posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of URA and BTC

Treynor Ratio: URA vs. BTC

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better
Asset return Market return 0 0 β 2.42 β 1.64
excess return / market beta
Formula Treynor=E[R]−Rfβ\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. URA posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of URA and BTC

Ulcer Index: URA vs. BTC

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better
0% -14% -28% -41% -55%
root-mean-square drawdown
Formula UI=E[Dt2]\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. URA had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Global X Uranium ETF vs. Bitcoin

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns ln⁡(PtPt−1)\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right) so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: URA vs. BTC (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns
URA VaR 5% ES 5% BTC VaR 5% ES 5% -17.5% 0% +17.5% Daily log return
VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.
Formula VaR5%=Q0.05(rt),ES5%=E[rt∣rt≤VaR5%]\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]
Metric (1-Year) URA BTC
5% VaR (daily log return) -5.38% -4.36%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) -6.81% (worst 13 days) -6.38% (worst 13 days)
Skew -0.01 -0.24
Excess kurtosis 0.01 4.06
2σ tail days (down / up) 6 / 9 5 / 8
Worst day -9.88% (2026-06-05) -14.07% (2026-02-05)
Best day +8.39% (2025-10-28) +11.94% (2026-02-06)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=250). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: URA vs. BTC (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both URA and BTC crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ
-2σ BTC -2σ URA Joint downside zone -17.3% 0% +17.3% +11.9% 0% -11.9% BTC daily log return URA daily log return
Shared daily return 250
URA Downside threshold -6.58%
BTC Downside threshold -5.70%
Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both URA and BTC had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when URA had a big down day

Date (interval) URA BTC
2025-10-21 -6.59% -2.02%
2025-11-20 -6.71% -5.24%
2026-01-30 -7.32% -0.64%
2026-02-04 -6.91% -3.40%
2026-03-03 -7.88% -0.77%
2026-06-05 -9.88% -4.47%

Days when BTC had a big down day

Date (interval) URA BTC
2025-10-10 +0.74% -7.13%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20 -0.51% -7.44%
2026-01-30 → 2026-02-02 -3.13% -6.45%
2026-02-05 -6.26% -14.07%
2026-06-02 +5.70% -6.44%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Global X Uranium ETF vs. Bitcoin (1-Year)

Metric URA BTC
Total Return -14.4% -29.6%
Annualized Volatility 51.8% 44.1%
Sharpe Ratio -0.12 -0.67
Sortino Ratio -0.17 -0.94
Calmar Ratio -0.37 -0.56
Sterling Ratio -0.54 -0.64
Treynor Ratio -0.03 -0.18
Ulcer Index 22.07% 37.53%
Max Drawdown -39.3% -52.5%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500 0.66 0.47
5% VaR (daily log return) -5.38% -4.36%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) -6.81% -6.38%
Skew -0.01 -0.24
Excess kurtosis 0.01 4.06
2σ tail days (down / up) 6 / 9 5 / 8
Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics
2025-10-07 → 2026-10-06 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes)
221 rolling 30-day values (from 250 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year)
URA: 252 days/year; BTC: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate
Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:
  • URA: 3.81% over 2025-10-07 → 2026-10-06.
  • BTC: 3.81% over 2025-10-07 → 2026-10-06.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb)
Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.
  • URA: ≈ -13.4%/yr
  • BTC: ≈ -9.7%/yr
Data alignment
No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions
Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return
rt=PtPt−1−1r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1
Volatility
σann=σ(rt)A\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}
Volatility drag (approx.)
drag≈12σann2\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2
Sharpe Ratio
S=A rˉ−rfσ(rt)AS = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}
Sortino Ratio
So=A rˉ−rfE[min⁡(0, rt−rf/A)2] ASo = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}
Maximum Drawdown
MDD=min⁡t(Ptmax⁡s≤tPs−1)MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)
Average Correlation
ρ=cov⁡(rA, rB)σA σB\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}
Log returns
ℓt=ln⁡(PtPt−1)\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)
Notation
PtP_t
Price on day t.
rtr_t
Simple daily return.
ℓt\ell_t
Log daily return.
rˉ\bar{r}
Average daily return.
σ(rt)\sigma(r_t)
Standard deviation of daily returns.
AA
Annualization factor (days/year).
rfr_f
Annual risk-free rate.

Global X Uranium ETF vs Bitcoin: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: URA or BTC?

URA showed higher volatility at 51.8% annualized, compared to 44.1% for BTC Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does URA provide diversification when held with BTC?

URA and BTC are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.47. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for URA vs BTC?

Over the past year, URA's 5% VaR was -5.38% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -6.81% (worst 13 days). BTC's were -4.36% and -6.38% (worst 13 days).

Do URA and BTC crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=250), when BTC has a 2σ down day, URA also does 0.0% (0/5 days). In the other direction, when URA has one, BTC also does 0.0% (0/6 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: URA or BTC?

Both assets posted negative Sharpe ratios Over the past year (URA -0.12 vs BTC -0.67), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; URA was less negative.

Can URA and BTC be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. URA's higher volatility (51.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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