Cite This Comparison
"Silver vs Nvidia (XAG vs NVDA): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 9, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/xag-vs-nvda Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-13 to 2026-01-09
Relative Performance of XAG vs NVDA (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: XAG delivered a +169.5% total return, while NVDA returned +38.8% over the same period. XAG outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): XAG had a higher Sharpe (3.01 vs 0.84), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
- Volatility (Annualized): NVDA was more volatile, with 48.8% annualized volatility, versus 32.9% for XAG.
- Maximum Drawdown: XAG's maximum drawdown was -13.6%, while NVDA experienced a deeper drawdown of -35.9%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), XAG's VaR was -2.32% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -4.63%; NVDA's were -4.50% and -7.44%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: XAG -0.30 vs NVDA -0.54. Excess kurtosis: XAG 3.28 vs NVDA 8.46. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): XAG 7/7, NVDA 7/2. Worst day: XAG -8.36% (2025-12-29) vs NVDA -18.59% (2025-01-27). Best day: XAG +8.78% (2025-12-26) vs NVDA +17.16% (2025-04-09).
Silver vs Nvidia Correlation
Silver and Nvidia are weakly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.13, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.
For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining XAG and NVDA could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.08 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.13 | |
| Minimum | -0.34 | |
| Maximum | 0.60 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 13, 2025:
Difference: $13,072.42 (XAG ahead)
Silver and Nvidia: Risk Analysis
Silver experienced its maximum drawdown of -13.6% from 2025-03-27 to 2025-04-04. It took 59 days to recover.
Nvidia experienced its maximum drawdown of -35.9% from 2025-01-23 to 2025-04-04. It took 81 days to recover.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of XAG and NVDA
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. XAG had a higher Sharpe (3.01 vs 0.84), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of XAG and NVDA
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. XAG had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: XAG 23.2% vs NVDA 37.6%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: Silver vs. Nvidia
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
| Metric (1y) | XAG | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -2.32% | -4.50% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -4.63% (worst 13 days) | -7.44% (worst 13 days) |
| Skew | -0.30 | -0.54 |
| Excess kurtosis | 3.28 | 8.46 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 7 / 7 | 7 / 2 |
| Worst day | -8.36% (2025-12-29) | -18.59% (2025-01-27) |
| Best day | +8.78% (2025-12-26) | +17.16% (2025-04-09) |
Downside co-moves (2σ)
Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both XAG and NVDA had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | XAG | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-03 | -5.99% | -7.81% |
| 2025-04-04 | -6.64% | -7.36% |
Days when XAG had a big down day
| Date (interval) | XAG | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-03 | -5.99% | -7.81% |
| 2025-04-04 | -6.64% | -7.36% |
| 2025-10-17 | -4.40% | +0.78% |
| 2025-10-21 | -7.10% | -0.81% |
| 2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29 | -8.02% | -1.21% |
| 2025-12-31 | -6.05% | -0.55% |
| 2026-01-07 | -3.78% | +1.00% |
Days when NVDA had a big down day
| Date (interval) | XAG | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 → 2025-01-27 | -1.40% | -16.97% |
| 2025-02-27 | -1.86% | -8.48% |
| 2025-02-28 → 2025-03-03 | +1.87% | -8.69% |
| 2025-04-03 | -5.99% | -7.81% |
| 2025-04-04 | -6.64% | -7.36% |
| 2025-04-10 | +0.60% | -5.91% |
| 2025-04-16 | +1.38% | -6.87% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Silver vs Nvidia Volatility (XAG vs NVDA)
Silver's annualized volatility of 32.9% means it typically moves ±2.07% on any given day.
Nvidia's annualized volatility of 48.8% means it typically moves ±3.08% on any given day.
NVDA's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while XAG's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Silver vs Nvidia Performance Over Time
| Metric | XAG | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | 29.1% | 0.6% |
| 90 Days | 59.7% | 0.9% |
| 180 Days | 107.3% | 12.1% |
| 1 Year | 169.5% | 38.8% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Silver vs. Nvidia (1-Year)
| Metric | XAG | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | +169.5% | +38.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 32.9% | 48.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 3.01 | 0.84 |
| Sortino Ratio | 4.26 | 1.09 |
| Max Drawdown | -13.6% | -35.9% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.18 | 0.69 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -2.32% | -4.50% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -4.63% | -7.44% |
| Skew | -0.30 | -0.54 |
| Excess kurtosis | 3.28 | 8.46 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 7 / 7 | 7 / 2 |
Silver vs Nvidia: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: XAG or NVDA?
NVDA showed higher volatility at 48.8% annualized, compared to 32.9% for XAG Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does XAG provide diversification when held with NVDA?
XAG and NVDA are weakly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.13. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.
How bad are the worst 5% days for XAG vs NVDA?
Over the past year, XAG's 5% VaR was -2.32% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -4.63% (worst 13 days). NVDA's were -4.50% and -7.44% (worst 13 days).
Do XAG and NVDA crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=249), when NVDA has a 2σ down day, XAG also does 28.6% (2/7 days). In the other direction, when XAG has one, NVDA also does 28.6% (2/7 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: XAG or NVDA?
XAG showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 3.01 versus NVDA's 0.84 Over the past year.
Can XAG and NVDA be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. NVDA's higher volatility (48.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.