Cite This Comparison
"Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF (XAG vs SIL): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, January 23, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/xag-vs-sil/ Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-01-27 to 2026-01-23
Relative Performance of XAG vs SIL (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: XAG delivered a +239.2% total return, while SIL returned +244.5% over the same period. SIL outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): XAG had a higher Sharpe (3.47 vs 3.15), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
- Volatility (Annualized): SIL was more volatile, with 41.2% annualized volatility, versus 35.3% for XAG.
- Maximum Drawdown: XAG's maximum drawdown was -13.6%, while SIL experienced a deeper drawdown of -22.1%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), XAG's VaR was -2.36% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -4.71%; SIL's were -3.51% and -5.90%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: XAG -0.06 vs SIL -0.66. Excess kurtosis: XAG 2.71 vs SIL 2.85. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): XAG 6/10, SIL 6/4. Worst day: XAG -8.02% (2025-12-29) vs SIL -10.86% (2025-10-21). Best day: XAG +9.18% (2025-12-26) vs SIL +8.86% (2025-04-09).
- Risk ratios: Sortino - XAG: 5.97 vs. SIL: 4.95 , Calmar - XAG: 17.91 vs. SIL: 11.29 , Sterling - XAG: 17.76 vs. SIL: 12.71 , Treynor - XAG: 2.84 vs. SIL: 2.20 , Ulcer Index - XAG: 4.27% vs. SIL: 6.35%
Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Correlation
Silver and Global X Silver Miners ETF are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.77, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.
For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both XAG and SIL provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.72 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.77 | |
| Minimum | 0.54 | |
| Maximum | 0.91 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 27, 2025:
Difference: $532.29 (SIL ahead)
Silver and Global X Silver Miners ETF: Risk Analysis
Silver experienced its maximum drawdown of -13.6% from 2025-03-27 to 2025-04-04. It took 59 days to recover.
Global X Silver Miners ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -22.1% from 2025-10-16 to 2025-11-04. It took 37 days to recover.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of XAG and SIL
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. XAG had a higher Sharpe (3.47 vs 3.15), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of XAG and SIL
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). XAG had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: XAG 20.5% vs SIL 26.2%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Calmar Ratio of XAG and SIL
Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. XAG posted the higher Calmar ratio.
Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.
Sterling Ratio of XAG and SIL
Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). XAG posted the higher Sterling ratio.
Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.
Treynor Ratio of XAG and SIL
Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. XAG posted the higher Treynor ratio.
Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.
Ulcer Index of XAG and SIL
Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. XAG had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).
Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Silver vs. Global X Silver Miners ETF
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.
| Metric (1-Year) | XAG | SIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -2.36% | -3.51% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -4.71% (worst 13 days) | -5.90% (worst 13 days) |
| Skew | -0.06 | -0.66 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.71 | 2.85 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 6 / 10 | 6 / 4 |
| Worst day | -8.02% (2025-12-29) | -10.86% (2025-10-21) |
| Best day | +9.18% (2025-12-26) | +8.86% (2025-04-09) |
Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year
Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both XAG and SIL had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | XAG | SIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | -6.64% | -10.03% |
| 2025-10-17 | -4.40% | -7.68% |
| 2025-10-21 | -7.10% | -10.86% |
| 2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29 | -8.02% | -5.29% |
Days when XAG had a big down day
| Date (interval) | XAG | SIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-03 | -5.99% | -1.71% |
| 2025-04-04 | -6.64% | -10.03% |
| 2025-10-17 | -4.40% | -7.68% |
| 2025-10-21 | -7.10% | -10.86% |
| 2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29 | -8.02% | -5.29% |
| 2025-12-31 | -6.05% | -2.33% |
Days when SIL had a big down day
| Date (interval) | XAG | SIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | -6.64% | -10.03% |
| 2025-05-09 → 2025-05-12 | -0.48% | -6.55% |
| 2025-10-17 | -4.40% | -7.68% |
| 2025-10-21 | -7.10% | -10.86% |
| 2025-11-20 | -1.37% | -5.39% |
| 2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29 | -8.02% | -5.29% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Volatility (XAG vs SIL)
Silver's annualized volatility of 35.3% means it typically moves ±2.23% on any given day.
Global X Silver Miners ETF's annualized volatility of 41.2% means it typically moves ±2.6% on any given day.
SIL's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while XAG's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Performance Over Time
| Metric | XAG | SIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | 42.7% | 28.6% |
| 90 Days | 111.3% | 66.7% |
| 180 Days | 168.5% | 125.3% |
| 1 Year | 239.2% | 244.5% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Silver vs. Global X Silver Miners ETF (1-Year)
| Metric | XAG | SIL |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | +239.2% | +244.5% |
| Annualized Volatility | 35.3% | 41.2% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 3.47 | 3.15 |
| Sortino Ratio | 5.97 | 4.95 |
| Calmar Ratio | 17.91 | 11.29 |
| Sterling Ratio | 17.76 | 12.71 |
| Treynor Ratio | 2.84 | 2.20 |
| Ulcer Index | 4.27% | 6.35% |
| Max Drawdown | -13.6% | -22.1% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -2.36% | -3.51% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -4.71% | -5.90% |
| Skew | -0.06 | -0.66 |
| Excess kurtosis | 2.71 | 2.85 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 6 / 10 | 6 / 4 |
Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: XAG or SIL?
SIL showed higher volatility at 41.2% annualized, compared to 35.3% for XAG Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does XAG provide diversification when held with SIL?
XAG and SIL are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.77. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.
How bad are the worst 5% days for XAG vs SIL?
Over the past year, XAG's 5% VaR was -2.36% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -4.71% (worst 13 days). SIL's were -3.51% and -5.90% (worst 13 days).
Do XAG and SIL crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=249), when SIL has a 2σ down day, XAG also does 66.7% (4/6 days). In the other direction, when XAG has one, SIL also does 66.7% (4/6 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: XAG or SIL?
XAG showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 3.47 versus SIL's 3.15 Over the past year.
Can XAG and SIL be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. SIL's higher volatility (41.2%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.