Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF (XAG vs SIL) 2026: Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: XAG or SIL?

Over the past year, SIL looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (SIL +136.6% vs XAG +128.4%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (SIL 1.96 vs XAG 1.66). On risk, SIL was less volatile (SIL 48.5% vs XAG 56.9%), SIL had a smaller max drawdown (SIL -32.9% vs XAG -41.9%), and SIL had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of SIL -7.92% vs XAG -9.75%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: XAG or SIL?

Over the past year, SIL outperformed XAG. SIL returned +136.6% compared with XAG’s +128.4%. SIL had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.96 versus XAG’s 1.66. SIL was less volatile than XAG, and SIL had a smaller max drawdown than XAG.

Total Return

XAG +128.4%

SIL +136.6%

Sharpe Ratio

XAG 1.66

SIL 1.96

Annualized Volatility

XAG 56.9%

SIL 48.5%

Max Drawdown

XAG -41.9%

SIL -32.9%

Metric winners: Total Return: SIL; Sharpe Ratio: SIL; Annualized Volatility: SIL (less volatile); Max Drawdown: SIL (smaller drawdown).

XAG Total Return

↑ +128.4%

SIL Total Return

↑ +136.6%

Relative Performance of XAG vs SIL (Normalized to 100)

XAG SIL

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: XAG delivered a +128.4% total return, while SIL returned +136.6% over the same period. SIL outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): SIL had a higher Sharpe (1.96 vs 1.66), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): XAG was more volatile, with 56.9% annualized volatility, versus 48.5% for SIL.
Maximum Drawdown: SIL's maximum drawdown was -32.9%, while XAG experienced a deeper drawdown of -41.9%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), XAG's VaR was -4.23% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -9.75%; SIL's were -5.43% and -7.92%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: XAG -3.40 vs SIL -1.14. Excess kurtosis: XAG 26.41 vs SIL 3.67. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): XAG 7/2, SIL 9/1. Worst day: XAG -28.03% (2026-01-30) vs SIL -14.78% (2026-01-30). Best day: XAG +9.19% (2026-02-06) vs SIL +7.82% (2026-03-31).
Risk ratios: Sortino - XAG: 2.17 vs. SIL: 2.74 , Calmar - XAG: 3.09 vs. SIL: 4.19 , Sterling - XAG: 4.54 vs. SIL: 5.37 , Treynor - XAG: 0.94 vs. SIL: 0.92 , Ulcer Index - XAG: 16.20% vs. SIL: 10.54%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 25, 2025:

XAG $22,835.31 +128.4%

SIL $23,655.02 +136.6%

Difference: $819.71 (SIL ahead)

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Performance Over Time

Metric	XAG	SIL
30 Days	5.9%	12.9%
90 Days	-26.4%	-15.6%
180 Days	55.5%	40.8%
1 Year	128.4%	136.6%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Correlation

Average Correlation

strongly correlated

0.80

Current (30-day) 0.88

30-day rolling range +0.64 to +0.91

Silver and Global X Silver Miners ETF are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.80, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both XAG and SIL provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.88
Average (full period)	0.80
Minimum (30-day rolling)	0.64
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.91

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

XAG

-41.9%

SIL

-32.9%

Silver experienced its maximum drawdown of -41.9% from 2026-01-28 to 2026-03-20. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Global X Silver Miners ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.9% from 2026-02-27 to 2026-03-20. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Volatility (XAG vs SIL)

XAG Volatility

56.9%

±3.59% 1-day vol

SIL Volatility

48.5%

±3.06% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

XAG

±3.59%

SIL

±3.06%

Silver's 56.9% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.59% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Global X Silver Miners ETF's 48.5% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.06% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

XAG had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; SIL was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of XAG and SIL

Sharpe Ratio: XAG vs. SIL

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. SIL had a higher Sharpe (1.96 vs 1.66), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of XAG and SIL

Sortino Ratio: XAG vs. SIL

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). SIL had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: XAG 43.4% vs SIL 34.6%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of XAG and SIL

Calmar Ratio: XAG vs. SIL

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. SIL posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of XAG and SIL

Sterling Ratio: XAG vs. SIL

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). SIL posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of XAG and SIL

Treynor Ratio: XAG vs. SIL

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. XAG posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of XAG and SIL

Ulcer Index: XAG vs. SIL

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. SIL had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Silver vs. Global X Silver Miners ETF

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: XAG vs. SIL (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	XAG	SIL
5% VaR (daily log return)	-4.23%	-5.43%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.75% (worst 13 days)	-7.92% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-3.40	-1.14
Excess kurtosis	26.41	3.67
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 2	9 / 1
Worst day	-28.03% (2026-01-30)	-14.78% (2026-01-30)
Best day	+9.19% (2026-02-06)	+7.82% (2026-03-31)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: XAG vs. SIL (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both XAG and SIL crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both XAG and SIL had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	XAG	SIL
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-10.86%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-14.78%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-7.63%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-8.11%
2026-03-03	-8.17%	-8.92%

Days when XAG had a big down day

Date (interval)	XAG	SIL
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-10.86%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29	-8.02%	-5.29%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-14.78%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-7.63%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-8.11%
2026-03-03	-8.17%	-8.92%
2026-03-20	-7.09%	-4.42%

Days when SIL had a big down day

Date (interval)	XAG	SIL
2025-05-09 → 2025-05-12	-0.48%	-6.55%
2025-10-17	-4.40%	-7.68%
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-10.86%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-14.78%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-7.63%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-8.11%
2026-03-03	-8.17%	-8.92%
2026-03-18	-4.48%	-6.73%
2026-03-19	-3.44%	-5.71%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Silver vs. Global X Silver Miners ETF (1-Year)

Metric	XAG	SIL
Total Return	+128.4%	+136.6%
Annualized Volatility	56.9%	48.5%
Sharpe Ratio	1.66	1.96
Sortino Ratio	2.17	2.74
Calmar Ratio	3.09	4.19
Sterling Ratio	4.54	5.37
Treynor Ratio	0.94	0.92
Ulcer Index	16.20%	10.54%
Max Drawdown	-41.9%	-32.9%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.16	0.27
5% VaR (daily log return)	-4.23%	-5.43%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.75%	-7.92%
Skew	-3.40	-1.14
Excess kurtosis	26.41	3.67
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 2	9 / 1

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): XAG: 252 days/year; SIL: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

XAG: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.

SIL: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

XAG: ≈ -16.2%/yr

SIL: ≈ -11.8%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: XAG or SIL?

XAG showed higher volatility at 56.9% annualized, compared to 48.5% for SIL Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does XAG provide diversification when held with SIL?

XAG and SIL are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.80. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for XAG vs SIL?

Over the past year, XAG's 5% VaR was -4.23% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -9.75% (worst 13 days). SIL's were -5.43% and -7.92% (worst 13 days).

Do XAG and SIL crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when SIL has a 2σ down day, XAG also does 55.6% (5/9 days). In the other direction, when XAG has one, SIL also does 71.4% (5/7 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: XAG or SIL?

SIL showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.96 versus XAG's 1.66 Over the past year.

Can XAG and SIL be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. XAG's higher volatility (56.9%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: XAG or SIL?

Share This Comparison of XAG vs SIL

Relative Performance of XAG vs SIL (Normalized to 100)

Trade XAG or SIL

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Performance Over Time

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Correlation

Drawdown

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Volatility (XAG vs SIL)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of XAG and SIL

Sharpe Ratio: XAG vs. SIL

Sortino Ratio of XAG and SIL

Sortino Ratio: XAG vs. SIL

Calmar Ratio of XAG and SIL

Calmar Ratio: XAG vs. SIL

Sterling Ratio of XAG and SIL

Sterling Ratio: XAG vs. SIL

Treynor Ratio of XAG and SIL

Treynor Ratio: XAG vs. SIL

Ulcer Index of XAG and SIL

Ulcer Index: XAG vs. SIL

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Silver vs. Global X Silver Miners ETF

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: XAG vs. SIL (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: XAG vs. SIL (2σ)

Days when both XAG and SIL had a big down day (2σ)

Days when XAG had a big down day

Days when SIL had a big down day

Full Comparison of Silver vs. Global X Silver Miners ETF (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: XAG or SIL?

Does XAG provide diversification when held with SIL?

How bad are the worst 5% days for XAG vs SIL?

Do XAG and SIL crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: XAG or SIL?

Can XAG and SIL be combined in a portfolio?