XAG vs SLV: Commodity Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: XAG or SLV?

Over the past year, it depends: XAG led on total return (XAG +185.4% vs SLV +181.8%), but SLV had the higher Sharpe ratio (SLV 2.16 vs XAG 2.12). On risk, SLV was less volatile (SLV 54.0% vs XAG 54.5%), SLV had a smaller max drawdown (SLV -37.1% vs XAG -39.3%), and SLV had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of SLV -9.20% vs XAG -9.35%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: XAG or SLV?

Over the past year, results are mixed (+185.4% vs +181.8%).

Total Return

XAG WIN +185.4%

SLV +181.8%

Sharpe Ratio

XAG 2.12

SLV WIN 2.16

Annualized Volatility

XAG 54.5%

SLV WIN 54.0%

Max Drawdown

XAG -39.3%

SLV WIN -37.1%

Analysis period: 2025-02-27 to 2026-02-25

XAG Total Return

↑ +185.4%

SLV Total Return

↑ +181.8%

Relative Performance of XAG vs SLV (Normalized to 100)

XAG SLV

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: XAG delivered a +185.4% total return, while SLV returned +181.8% over the same period. XAG outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): SLV had a higher Sharpe (2.16 vs 2.12), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): XAG was more volatile, with 54.5% annualized volatility, versus 54.0% for SLV.
Maximum Drawdown: SLV's maximum drawdown was -37.1%, while XAG experienced a deeper drawdown of -39.3%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), XAG's VaR was -3.37% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -9.35%; SLV's were -3.68% and -9.20%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: XAG -3.87 vs SLV -3.93. Excess kurtosis: XAG 31.74 vs SLV 33.07. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): XAG 6/3, SLV 6/2. Worst day: XAG -28.03% (2026-01-30) vs SLV -28.54% (2026-01-30). Best day: XAG +9.19% (2026-02-06) vs SLV +9.05% (2025-12-26).
Risk ratios: Sortino - XAG: 2.78 vs. SLV: 2.82 , Calmar - XAG: 4.77 vs. SLV: 4.94 , Sterling - XAG: 8.28 vs. SLV: 8.35 , Treynor - XAG: 1.96 vs. SLV: 2.42 , Ulcer Index - XAG: 9.41% vs. SLV: 9.25%

Silver vs Silver ETF Correlation

0.99 Average Correlation

Silver and Silver ETF are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.99, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both XAG and SLV provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.98
Average (full period)	0.99
Minimum	0.95
Maximum	1.00

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 27, 2025:

XAG $28,536.7 +185.4%

SLV $28,183.1 +181.8%

Difference: $353.6 (XAG ahead)

Silver and Silver ETF: Risk Analysis

Silver experienced its maximum drawdown of -39.3% from 2026-01-28 to 2026-02-05. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Silver ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -37.1% from 2026-01-28 to 2026-02-17. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of XAG and SLV

XAG Sharpe Ratio

↑ 2.12

SLV Sharpe Ratio

↑ 2.16

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. SLV had a higher Sharpe (2.16 vs 2.12), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of XAG and SLV

XAG Sortino Ratio

↑ 2.78

SLV Sortino Ratio

↑ 2.82

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). SLV had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: XAG 41.5% vs SLV 41.3%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of XAG and SLV

XAG Calmar Ratio

↑ 4.77

SLV Calmar Ratio

↑ 4.94

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. SLV posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of XAG and SLV

XAG Sterling Ratio

↑ 8.28

SLV Sterling Ratio

↑ 8.35

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). SLV posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of XAG and SLV

XAG Treynor Ratio

↑ 1.96

SLV Treynor Ratio

↑ 2.42

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. SLV posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of XAG and SLV

XAG Ulcer Index

9.41%

SLV Ulcer Index

9.25%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. SLV had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Silver vs. Silver ETF

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	XAG	SLV
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.37%	-3.68%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.35% (worst 13 days)	-9.20% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-3.87	-3.93
Excess kurtosis	31.74	33.07
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 3	6 / 2
Worst day	-28.03% (2026-01-30)	-28.54% (2026-01-30)
Best day	+9.19% (2026-02-06)	+9.05% (2025-12-26)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When SLV has a big down day, XAG also does

83.3%

5 / 6 days

When XAG has a big down day, SLV also does

100.0%

5 / 5 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both XAG and SLV had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	XAG	SLV
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-8.24%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29	-8.02%	-7.19%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-28.54%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-15.77%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-11.53%

Days when XAG had a big down day

Date (interval)	XAG	SLV
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-8.24%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29	-8.02%	-7.19%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-28.54%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-15.77%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-11.53%

Days when SLV had a big down day

Date (interval)	XAG	SLV
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-8.24%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29	-8.02%	-7.19%
2025-12-31	-6.05%	-6.61%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-28.54%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-15.77%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-11.53%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Silver vs Silver ETF Volatility (XAG vs SLV)

XAG Volatility

54.5%

±3.43% daily

SLV Volatility

54.0%

±3.4% daily

Typical daily swing

XAG

±3.43%

SLV

±3.4%

Silver's annualized volatility of 54.5% means it typically moves ±3.43% on any given day.

Silver ETF's annualized volatility of 54.0% means it typically moves ±3.4% on any given day.

XAG's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while SLV's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Silver vs Silver ETF Performance Over Time

Metric	XAG	SLV
30 Days	-14%	-18.6%
90 Days	67.1%	65.4%
180 Days	124%	121.2%
1 Year	185.4%	181.8%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Silver vs. Silver ETF (1-Year)

Metric	XAG	SLV
Total Return	+185.4%	+181.8%
Annualized Volatility	54.5%	54.0%
Sharpe Ratio	2.12	2.16
Sortino Ratio	2.78	2.82
Calmar Ratio	4.77	4.94
Sterling Ratio	8.28	8.35
Treynor Ratio	1.96	2.42
Ulcer Index	9.41%	9.25%
Max Drawdown	-39.3%	-37.1%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.14	0.13
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.37%	-3.68%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.35%	-9.20%
Skew	-3.87	-3.93
Excess kurtosis	31.74	33.07
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 3	6 / 2

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): XAG: 252 days/year; SLV: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

XAG: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.

SLV: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

XAG: ≈ -14.9%/yr

SLV: ≈ -14.6%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Silver vs Silver ETF: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: XAG or SLV?

XAG showed higher volatility at 54.5% annualized, compared to 54.0% for SLV Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does XAG provide diversification when held with SLV?

XAG and SLV are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.99. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for XAG vs SLV?

Over the past year, XAG's 5% VaR was -3.37% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -9.35% (worst 13 days). SLV's were -3.68% and -9.20% (worst 13 days).

Do XAG and SLV crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when SLV has a 2σ down day, XAG also does 83.3% (5/6 days). In the other direction, when XAG has one, SLV also does 100.0% (5/5 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: XAG or SLV?

SLV showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 2.16 versus XAG's 2.12 Over the past year.

Can XAG and SLV be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. XAG's higher volatility (54.5%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.